Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff studies on poultry, pork, beef and dairy information from across the globe
29 June 2024
13 minute learn
USDA to announce H5N1 support for dairy farmers
USDA will quickly announce monetary support for dairy farmers affected by the H5N1 virus by means of the Emergency Help for Livestock, Honeybees and Farm-Raised Fish (ELAP) program. The help will cowl 28 days of milk loss per cow over a 134-day interval, based mostly on the month-to-month all-milk worth and anticipated milk manufacturing per cow. Of the 28 days, 21 might be coated at full loss and 7 at 50% loss. Eligibility requires a optimistic check from a federally authorised lab and milk manufacturing in the course of the interval. Particulars might be shared in public briefings with impacted states on Thursday and Friday.
Barely larger US hog herd anticipated
Analysts count on USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report this afternoon to indicate the U.S. hog herd elevated 0.8% from year-ago as of June 1 to 74.139 million head. Market hog inventories are anticipated to be up 1.2%, whereas the breeding herd is anticipated to be down 2.7%. Analysts count on USDA to report a 0.9% larger spring pig crop as elevated litter measurement seemingly offset barely fewer farrowings. Trying ahead, analysts count on farmers to farrow 1.4% and 1.0% fewer sows throughout summer season and fall, respectively. As at all times, USDA’s revisions to previous information might be key.
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Web gross sales of 16,700 MT for 2024 have been up 13 p.c from the earlier week and 17 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase have been primarily for Japan (4,000 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), China (4,000 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), Canada (1,300 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT). Exports of 16,400 MT have been down 2 p.c from the earlier week, however up 1 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Japan (4,700 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT), China (1,900 MT), Canada (1,600 MT), and Taiwan (1,500 MT).
Pork: Web gross sales of 39,200 MT for 2024 have been up 83 p.c from the earlier week and 25 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (20,200 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Japan (5,900 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Canada (4,200 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Australia (3,100 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), have been offset by reductions for the Dominican Republic (1,700 MT). Exports of 28,300 MT have been down 2 p.c from the earlier week and 14 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (11,300 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT), China (2,600 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT).
2024 US meat, poultry, fish costs anticipated to rise by 1.8%; pork costs seen up 1.1%
US pork costs have risen 2.6% since Could 2023. The opposite meals class, accounting for 12.2% of meals costs, is now forecast to extend by 0.8%, down from 1.3% in Could.
US money cattle fundamentals stay crimson scorching
The typical US money cattle worth was a report $194.84 final week, rising $2.29 from the earlier week’s excessive. Over the previous two weeks, the money worth has surged $5.92. Wholesale beef costs firmed 25 cents for Option to $322.64 and $1.96 for Choose to $305.07 on Monday. Given hefty packer purchases of cattle not too long ago and subsequent week’s shortened slaughter schedule, money sources count on costs to be regular at greatest this week.
H5N1 avian flu confirmed in 121 dairy herds, USDA expects extra instances amid warmth challenges
The H5N1 avian flu virus has been confirmed in 121 dairy herds, with extra anticipated as testing continues, based on a USDA official. The outbreak, now in its fourth month, poses challenges as summer season warmth discourages farmworkers from sporting full protecting gear.
Extra instances anticipated. Julie Gauthier of the USDA’s Animal and Plant Well being Inspection Service talked about in a webinar hosted by the Council for Agricultural Science and Know-how that extra instances are anticipated with elevated testing. The USDA is selling a voluntary program for weekly milk pattern assessments from bulk coolers on dairy farms, permitting farmers to move lactating cows throughout state traces with out prior testing if the weekly outcomes are destructive. 4 herds have joined this system since June 3.
USDA additionally plans to roll out the Emergency Livestock Help Program
The Emergency Livestock Help Program (ELAP) compensates producers for milk loss as a consequence of an infection. This program goals to encourage extra herds to bear testing.
Criticism has been directed at USDA for inadequate herd testing and insufficient monitoring of dairy farmworkers. Since March 25, three dairy staff have contracted delicate instances of fowl flu from cattle within the Texas panhandle.
Jamie Jonker of the Nationwide Milk Producers Federation famous that full private protecting gear (PPE) will not be possible within the present warmth, elevating potential employee issues of safety. The main focus will as an alternative be on defending the eyes, nostril, and mouth, with goggles already advisable in milking parlors. Gloves, masks, face shields, and disposable coveralls are different recommended protecting measures. Testing has discovered excessive viral counts in uncooked milk from contaminated cows, with conjunctivitis being a typical symptom amongst contaminated staff.
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack is predicted to announce a brand new livestock competitors regulation
Vilsack will communicate at an occasion that can concentrate on market competitors and bettering situations for U.S. producers, that includes Vilsack and U.S. Assistant Lawyer Normal of Antitrust Jonathan Kanter. The Workplace of Administration and Finances not too long ago accomplished its overview of a USDA proposed rule defining unfair practices underneath the Packers and Stockyards Act. That is a part of the Biden administration’s broader regulatory efforts in agriculture, notably concentrating on the livestock and poultry markets.
Denmark is ready to implement a carbon tax on livestock producers
This transfer is meant to fulfill its 2030 goal of decreasing greenhouse fuel emissions by 70% from 1990 ranges. The tax might be 300 Danish crowns ($43.16) per metric ton of carbon dioxide in 2030, growing to 750 crowns by 2035. Farmers can obtain a 60% earnings tax deduction, successfully decreasing the tax to 120 crowns per metric ton initially, rising to 300 crowns by 2035. Subsidies can even be accessible to assist farmers modify their operations. This plan, proposed in February and agreed upon by farmers, trade, labor unions, and environmentalists, awaits parliamentary approval however is predicted to go. Farming is Denmark’s largest supply of carbon dioxide emissions. Different nations have confronted resistance to related taxes from farmers.
Solely 18 U.S. farms are at the moment accepting federal funds to fight the H5N1 avian flu outbreak amongst dairy herds
The outbreak started three months in the past, based on USDA. Eligible farms can obtain as much as $28,000 over three months if they’ve an outbreak, and $3,500 is obtainable to different dairy producers to enhance biosecurity and check their cows.
The Facilities for Illness Management (CDC) reported (hyperlink) that over 690 individuals have been monitored for fowl flu as a consequence of publicity to contaminated animals, a rise of 140 in per week. Not less than 51 individuals with flu-like signs have been examined for fowl flu, with three farmworkers contracting delicate instances since March 25, when it was confirmed that the virus had unfold from birds to dairy cattle. The CDC emphasised that the danger to most of the people stays low.
Michigan has the very best enrollment for USDA monetary help, with 11 farms taking part. Different states with enrolled farms embody New York (one farm), Iowa (three farms), Colorado (two farms), and Wyoming (one farm). A USDA database (hyperlink) reveals that H5N1 has been confirmed in 112 herds throughout 12 states. The current change in format of the database reported 116 affected herds beforehand. USDA reported that HPAI has been confirmed in six extra Colorado dairy herds, two in Iowa and one in Idaho, based on Animal and Plant Well being Inspection Service (APHIS) updates on June 20 and 21. USDA mentioned that 58 instances have been confirmed up to now 30 days, affecting eight states.
In early Could, USDA introduced as much as $28,000 accessible for farms with contaminated herds to cowl prices equivalent to protecting gear, veterinary testing, treating contaminated herds, and strengthening biosecurity practices. Farms with out optimistic assessments for fowl flu may obtain as much as $1,500 for biosecurity measures and $2,000 for cow testing.
USDA plans to problem a disaster-aid regulation to compensate farmers for 90% of the worth of milk manufacturing misplaced as a result of virus and compensate farmers at truthful market worth for culled cows. Dairy cows contaminated with fowl flu sometimes develop a fever, lose urge for food, and produce much less milk however typically recuperate inside a few weeks, with a mortality and culling fee of two% or much less.
Iowa reported its eleventh case of fowl flu amongst dairy herds on Sunday in Sioux County (hyperlink), with two different instances in the identical county reported on Friday. 4 herds in Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Texas have enrolled in a voluntary USDA program for weekly testing of milk samples, exempting them from testing lactating cows earlier than interstate delivery.
Since February 2022, USDA has allotted $2.1 billion to handle fowl flu outbreaks, which have resulted within the deaths of over 97 million birds, primarily egg-laying hens and turkeys.
USDA Cattle on Feed Report barely destructive in comparison with expectations
USDA estimated there have been 11.583 million head of cattle in giant US feedlots (1,000-plus) as of June 1, down 7,000 head (0.1%) from year-ago however 152,000 head greater than the common pre-report estimate implied. Could placements topped year-ago by 4.3%, whereas merchants anticipated a 1.5% decline. Marketings elevated 0.2% from final 12 months, barely lower than anticipated. The info is mildly destructive in comparison with the pre-report estimates, however not sufficient to have a significant market influence.
China seeks to stabilize beef cattle manufacturing amid declining costs
China’s ag ministry printed new laws to stabilize the manufacturing of beef cattle because the trade faces declining costs and heavy losses. The ministry mentioned it’ll instruct farms to regulate breeding fairly, remove outdated and low-yielding cattle as acceptable, optimize herd construction and enhance manufacturing effectivity. Principal beef cattle producing areas ought to actively search assist from monetary establishments, it mentioned. The ministry additionally referred to as for measures to extend the provision of forage and scale back prices. Native areas ought to increase grass planting in cultivated land and as effectively utilizing seashores, deserted land and saline-alkali land. To strengthen illness prevention, the ministry mentioned it could assist large-scale farms to extend biosafety measures and construct disease-free communities.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (6/21) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $3.0900. The weekly common for Grade AA is $3.0963 (+0.0023). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.9200 and 40# blocks at $1.8450. The weekly common for barrels is $1.9475 (-0.0585) and blocks $1.8681 (-0.0764). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2050. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1988 (+0.0048). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.4700. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.4775 (+0.0025). BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Within the West, home butter calls for for each the retail and meals service sectors are regular. For the Central and East areas, no adjustments in home butter calls for from the prior week are conveyed for both the retail or meals service sectors. Though cream availability continues to tighten at varied paces throughout the nation, butter producers point out cream volumes stay ample for processing wants. Butter manufacturing schedules are principally regular. That mentioned, just a few producers point out churns will go down for prolonged upkeep initiatives previous to months finish. Some stakeholders say unsalted bulk butter is tight. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to 10 cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing schedules are variable all through the U.S. Within the Northeast, regular farm degree milk manufacturing and decrease Class I demand has allowed some cheese producers to run at full capability. Within the Central area, contacts share cheese manufacturing is in keeping with current weeks. Spot milk costs ranged from $2- to $1-under Class III. For week 25 of 2023, although, the spot milk worth vary was $11- to $3.50-under Class III. Some cheese processors have shared that they’re ready to buy spot milk hundreds till the Independence Day vacation. Within the West, cheese manufacturing is regular to lighter. Milk volumes have develop into tighter all through the area, and a few vegetation reported surprising downtime. Export cheese demand is regular.
FLUID MILK: Fluid milk and cream manufacturing has declined in nearly each area this week. Temperatures nearing and reaching 100 levels, in states throughout the South and West, are pushing cattle from their consolation zones and reducing manufacturing. Within the Northeast, cooler temperatures and higher cow consolation have been cited as the first purpose for contacts suggesting that present milk manufacturing ranges have been greater than anticipated for this time of 12 months. Spot milk hundreds are discovering their method into markets the place processors are shortly making use of them. The provision of these hundreds is getting tighter. Within the Midwest, cheesemakers are discovering spot milk hundreds at $2- and $1-under Class III once more this week. Some contacts are saying they’re ready for the Independence Day week to look to safe additional hundreds. Class II, III and IV calls for vary from sturdy to regular. Class I demand stays weak within the Northeast however regular throughout all different areas. Business members report condensed skim demand and availability are similar to current weeks. Cream availability continues to tighten. Cream multiples for all Courses are 1.15 – 1.40 within the East, 1.20 – 1.38 within the Midwest and 1.05 – 1.30 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs have been regular to greater this week. Attributable to restricted availability coinciding with gentle to regular demand, markets are seen as rangebound. Dry buttermilk costs have been regular to barely decrease nationwide. Present spot buying and selling exercise is quiet, as processors are targeted totally on contractual obligations. Dry entire milk costs have been regular, as spot load availability is and has been considerably tight. Dry whey costs have been combined all through the areas this week. Home demand is regular. As excessive protein focus mix markets are agency, whey solids proceed to movement into these processing channels. Whey protein focus 34% costs have been combined, as home demand is famous as regular, whereas worldwide pursuits are quieter. Lactose costs have been unchanged, as preparations for Q3 contracts are wrapping up. Acid and casein costs slid decrease on softening worldwide demand.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS
WEST EUROPE: Milk manufacturing in West Europe has been seasonally declining during the last month. In a lot of Europe, milk manufacturing ranges have been above these of the earlier 12 months. Nonetheless, cool moist climate has held again manufacturing in components of Europe like the UK and Eire. Following the European parliament election held earlier within the month, Europeans are anticipating what the shift to the suitable could imply for EU agricultural coverage and nationwide elections held later within the 12 months.
EAST EUROPE: Milk manufacturing continues to broaden inside East Europe. The EU Council has agreed in precept to the negotiating framework for accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Hungary was the final member state to conform to the talks after expressing considerations concerning the remedy of Hungarian minority teams inside Ukraine. The primary conferences are set to begin subsequent week.
AUSTRALIA: Dairy Australia not too long ago launched export information for Australia exhibiting milk export volumes from July 2023 – April 2024 have been down from the identical interval a 12 months earlier. The April 2024 Manufacturing Inputs Monitor from Dairy Australia acknowledged dry situations continued all through Could. Dryer soil situations in dairy producing areas of the nation have contributed to elevated demand for supplementary feed and better costs for hay and grain.
NEW ZEALAND: Milk manufacturing information from New Zealand for April 2024 was not too long ago launched exhibiting whole April 2024 manufacturing was down on a tonnage foundation in comparison with a 12 months earlier. Throughout April 2024, the entire kg of milk solids decreased from the earlier 12 months. Not too long ago launched information from New Zealand for April confirmed the variety of dairy cows despatched to slaughter in the course of the month was up from April 2023.
SOUTH AMERICA: Contacts in some areas of the South American area say climate patterns have develop into nearly contradictory as winter approaches. There are different hurdles confronting regional dairy farmers, based on studies, as costs for feed and extra notably, fertilizer, have moved greater in current months. Areas in Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil (specifically the state of Rio Grande do Sul) are nonetheless recovering from current months’ flooding. Merchants within the area say mid-year market exercise has cooled. Some contacts in Argentina and Uruguay relay Brazilian near-term wants are being met, however skim milk and entire milk powder availability just isn’t bountiful. Brazilian importers relay an upcoming push for dry whey and whey protein blends is predicted. They’re eyeing international markets in addition to availability developments from their neighboring buying and selling companions. All that mentioned, present markets are typically regular to quiet as merchants are focusing in on Q3/This fall contracts.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Standard dairy adverts elevated, however natural dairy adverts decreased. Cheese was essentially the most marketed dairy commodity. Whole typical cheese adverts elevated barely in comparison with the prior week. Standard ice cream was closely represented in dairy adverts. The rise in whole typical ice cream adverts for this week in comparison with final week was marginal. No natural ice cream adverts have been current this week. Yogurt was the third most represented typical dairy commodity.
