Analyst Jim Wyckoff reviews on international protein information
21 June 2024
12 minute learn
China might take provisional anti-dumping steps towards EU pork imports
China might impose provisional anti-dumping measures on pork imports from the European Union as a part of a year-long probe that started on June 17, its commerce ministry mentioned. “If, after a preliminary investigation, it’s decided that dumping has been established and has precipitated damage to home trade, provisional anti-dumping measures could also be taken,” a commerce ministry spokesperson mentioned, with out giving particular particulars.
Former CDC Director predicts fowl flu virus will trigger subsequent pandemic
Dr. Robert Redfield, former director of the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC), issued a grim prediction that the subsequent main pandemic might be attributable to fowl flu. “It’s not a query of if, it’s extra a query of once we may have a fowl flu pandemic,” Dr. Redfield advised NewsNation. He warned fowl flu in people has a “vital” mortality price, “in all probability someplace between 25% and 50%, so it’s going to be fairly difficult.”
China’s pork imports proceed to say no
China imported 80,000 MT of pork in Might, down 11.1% from the earlier month and 41.1% lower than year-ago. Via the primary 5 months of this 12 months, China imported 430,000 MT of pork, down 47.1% from the identical interval final 12 months.
Chicken flu infects seventh Iowa dairy farm
The Iowa Division of Agriculture reported one other outbreak of extremely pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in a Sioux County dairy herd of 10,000 cows, marking the seventh outbreak in Iowa since June. The virus, which is lethal to poultry, has proven restricted results on dairy cows, inflicting lowered urge for food and milk manufacturing, however cows get better with supportive care. That is the fifth outbreak in Sioux County, with earlier circumstances in O’Brien and Plymouth counties, affecting herds starting from 250 to 4,500 cows.
CDC finds low immunity to H5N1 avian flu in US inhabitants
Preliminary findings from the CDC point out that the American inhabitants has little to no pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 avian flu virus presently circulating on dairy and poultry farms. The CDC’s serology examine, based mostly on blood samples from the 2021-22 and 2022-23 flu seasons, confirmed low antibody ranges towards H5N1, suggesting most individuals can be vulnerable if the virus turned extra simply transmissible amongst people. The danger to most people stays low, with solely three human infections reported, all in individuals who labored intently with cows.
Outbreaks proceed steadily in dairy herds and sporadically in poultry flocks
In response, federal well being officers have contracted with CSL Seqirus to supply 4.8 million doses of an H5N1 vaccine, which the CDC says matches the circulating pressure effectively. In the meantime, Finland will supply avian flu vaccines to high-risk staff, corresponding to these in poultry and fur farms, as a part of a joint procurement with 15 EU international locations.
CFIA updates steering on HPAI in dairy cattle
The Canadian Meals Inspection Company (CFIA) has up to date its steering for veterinarians relating to extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle. The CFIA will cowl laboratory testing charges at any Canadian Animal Well being Surveillance Community (CAHSN) lab however won’t cowl veterinary charges for pattern assortment or cargo. Non-clinical dairy cattle at the moment are eligible for testing, requiring a milk pattern for lactating animals and a nasal swab for non-lactating animals. Veterinarians should report adverse check outcomes to the district workplace if HPAI is suspected. Whereas CFIA leads on HPAI in home birds, its position in cattle stays targeted on offering scientific recommendation, diagnostic help, and worldwide reporting. The CFIA collaborates with provinces, territories, and trade to make sure constant illness administration. As of June 14, no HPAI circumstances have been confirmed in Canadian dairy cattle.
USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: June 2024
Comparability of Retail Costs per Gram of Protein for Chosen Livestock, Poultry, and Egg Merchandise The chart beneath depicts the month-to-month retail costs per gram of protein content material throughout chosen livestock, poultry, and egg merchandise from January 2021 to Might 2024. The protein content material estimate per gram—a bodily attribute related to merchandise—is static. Nonetheless, retail costs reply to varied financial components that have an effect on each the availability and demand. Between 2021 and 2024, on a per gram of protein foundation, the retail costs for chosen animal merchandise trended larger with inflation. Nonetheless, at a more in-depth look, the retail costs for a number of protein selections, on common, have been year-over-year decrease within the first 5 months of this 12 months. For instance, the retail value per gram of protein was year-over-year decrease for bone-in hen legs (-4.0 p.c), boneless hen breast (-5.4 p.c), eggs (-23.6 p.c), and boneless ham (-0.7 p.c). Conversely, the retail costs per gram of protein have been year-over-year larger for floor beef (+6.5 p.c) and boneless pork chops (+2.4 p.c). Absent main product particular disruptions, the relative rating of the chosen merchandise was principally unchanged for the interval noticed, aside from eggs. Since 2022, egg costs have adopted a notably totally different sample than costs of most different animal merchandise. Provide shocks resulting from Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks have contributed to risky value modifications over the interval.
Beef/Cattle: The 2024 beef manufacturing forecast is nearly unchanged as heavier cattle weights are anticipated to partially offset tight cattle provides. The 2025 beef manufacturing forecast is raised with expectations of continued excessive cattle weights and a shift of marketings from late 2024 into early 2025. Minor modifications to cattle value projections from final month’s forecast replicate modifications in latest value knowledge. The meat commerce forecasts are unchanged from final month. Sheep/Lamb: Lamb-price forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been elevated between 10 and 20 {dollars} per hundredweight (cwt).
Dairy: Milk manufacturing forecasts for 2024 and 2025 stay unchanged from the final projection at 227.3 and 229.3 billion kilos, respectively. Adjusted 2024 value forecasts for dairy merchandise embody Cheddar cheese at $1.790 (+9.5 cents), dry whey at $0.435 (+3.50 cents), butter at $2.970 (+3.5 cents), and NDM at $1.175 (+1.5 cents). For 2025, Cheddar cheese is projected at $1.795 (+13.0 cents), dry whey at $0.400 (+2.50 cents), butter at $2.945 (+3.0 cents), and NDM stays unchanged at $1.14. On account of larger dairy product costs, the all-milk value for 2024 is forecast at $21.60 per cwt, up $0.40 from final month’s projection. For 2025, the all-milk value is anticipated to be $21.50 per cwt, up $0.60 from the earlier forecast.
Pork/Hogs: Second-quarter pork manufacturing was adjusted upward by 40 million kilos to six.730 billion kilos on expectations of upper common dressed weights and better than-expected ready-to[1]slaughter hogs from the December–February pig crop. Second-quarter hog costs have been lowered $2 per hundredweight (cwt) to $66 per cwt, about 16 p.c beneath costs a 12 months in the past. Third-quarter hog costs have been lowered $3 to $68 per cwt. U.S. pork exports for 2024 have been elevated 100 million kilos to 7.362 billion kilos, about 8 p.c larger than shipments in 2023, as Europe’s share on the earth’s pork export markets continues to decrease.
Poultry/Eggs: Projected broiler manufacturing in 2024 was elevated on latest manufacturing and hatchery knowledge. Broiler export projections have been minimize in 2024 and 2025 on latest commerce knowledge and expectations of comparatively uncompetitive costs. Broiler value projections for 2024 have been adjusted up on the power of home demand. Egg manufacturing was adjusted down in 2024 and 2025, reflecting losses resulting from Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza and expectations for a gradual restoration of the flock. Projected egg exports are adjusted down on decrease manufacturing prospects. Projected egg costs are adjusted up on latest knowledge and lowered on manufacturing expectations. Projected 2024 turkey manufacturing and exports have been adjusted up barely on latest knowledge. Projected turkey costs for 2024 have been adjusted up on the power of costs in Might.
HSUS criticizes Vilsack for opposing California’s Proposition 12 in farm invoice
The Humane Society of the US (HSUS) criticized USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack for supporting the pork trade’s efforts to override California’s Proposition 12. This controversy has prolonged to the farm invoice, a five-year plan for agricultural operations. The Home Ag Committee not too long ago handed a farm invoice limiting states’ and localities’ potential to impose livestock manufacturing situations outdoors their borders, a response to Prop 12, which bans the sale of pork not raised underneath particular animal welfare requirements and prohibits gestation crates.
HSUS accused Vilsack of selling zero-welfare pork producers and utilizing the farm invoice to dismantle Prop 12 and related legal guidelines. The group urged the White Home to intervene, stating Vilsack’s actions may hurt the administration’s animal welfare insurance policies. They argued that Vilsack is undermining the pursuits of hundreds of farmers and main public well being associations opposing the merciless confinement of cattle.
NCBA responds to FDA examine investigating the 2018 E. coli outbreak in Yuma, Arizona
The outbreak contaminated leafy greens, leading to 5 deaths and over 200 diseases in 38 states. The FDA discovered that air and dirt, like water, may switch pathogens like E. coli to supply, and that the proximity of produce farms to animal operations was a threat issue. Nonetheless, NCBA emphasised that the E. coli pressure was not discovered at a close-by cattle feeding operation, and the FDA examine didn’t determine a particular contamination supply. NCBA CEO Colin Woodall expressed concern over misinterpretations blaming the cattle trade, reaffirming the trade’s dedication to meals security and compliance with rules. He referred to as for extra scientific knowledge and cautioned towards untimely conclusions.
H5N1 avian flu unfold nationwide by way of cows, equipment, and folks; USDA urges enhanced biosecurity
After the H5N1 avian flu virus jumped from birds to dairy cattle in Texas final December, it unfold nationwide by way of contaminated cows, contaminated equipment, and folks carrying the virus on their garments and footwear, in response to USDA scientists. Regardless of the low threat to the general public, three dairy farm staff contracted gentle circumstances, and the virus has been confirmed in 96 herds throughout 12 states, with Michigan and Idaho having probably the most infections. Since February 2022, the fowl flu has additionally killed almost 97 million birds in home flocks.
USDA officers stress the significance of enhanced biosecurity practices to regulate the virus unfold. Studies recognized a number of transmission pathways, together with motion of contaminated cows, shared gear, and frequent visits by veterinarians and different personnel to a number of farms. Genetic evaluation dominated out migratory waterfowl as a think about spreading the virus amongst cattle.
USDA has made monetary help out there to affected farms, with as much as $28,000 per farm over three months, and 20 states are contemplating a voluntary USDA program to check milk for H5N1. Whereas mortality amongst contaminated cows is low, older cows are extra vulnerable, exhibiting signs like fever and lowered milk manufacturing.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (6/14) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $3.0900. The weekly common for Grade AA is $3.0940 (-0.0100). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $2.0200 and 40# blocks at $1.9700. The weekly common for barrels is $2.0060 (+0.0510) and blocks $1.9445 (+0.0785). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1925. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1940 (+0.0045). DRY WHEY: Additional grade dry whey closed at $0.4700. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.4750 (+0.0305).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Home butter demand is regular within the Central and West areas. Within the East area, retail demand is regular as effectively. Nonetheless, meals service demand is weak. Though cream availability is tightening to varied levels all through the nation, butter producers point out cream volumes are usually capable of meet processing wants. Butter manufacturing schedules are combined. A number of producers report churning as strongly as doable resulting from upcoming gear upkeep tasks. Unsalted bulk butter hundreds proceed to be considerably tight. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to 10 cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Contacts relay combined cheese manufacturing schedules all through the US. Within the East, cheese manufacturing schedules are regular as processors are attempting to utilize available milk provides. Federal Milk Advertising Order 1 approved non permanent discarding of milk resulting from numerous dealing with obstacles. Cheesemakers within the Central area relay robust manufacturing schedules. Processors share they’re manufacturing seasonally in[1]demand cheese varieties which has restricted their capability to course of barrels. Cheese manufacturing is regular to lighter within the West. Milk volumes are famous to be tighter than in latest weeks as temperatures rise. Cheesemakers within the area be aware regular demand.
FLUID MILK: Contacts within the West and Central areas report farm degree milk manufacturing is on the downward curve. The only exception is within the Northeast, the place contacts are reporting the robust spring push in manufacturing is simply beginning to degree out. Condensed skim is extra available within the Northeast, whereas contacts in different components of the nation say skim availability is starting to degree off. Class I demand is gentle to regular as many colleges dismiss for summer time break. Spot milk hundreds are tightening within the Central and West areas. Butter makers relay cream availability is starting to seasonally tighten, significantly as ice cream producers have begun to extend manufacturing. Cream multiples for all Courses are 1.12 – 1.41 within the East, 1.18 – 1.36 within the Midwest and 1.05 – 1.30 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs have been combined within the Central area, however moved larger within the West. Western contacts say worldwide clients are shopping for for near-term wants, whereas home demand varies. Dry buttermilk costs moved larger throughout the areas throughout week 24. Buttermilk manufacturing has been busy this spring, however lighter milk output in a rising geographical swath of the US has restricted processing schedules in latest weeks, significantly within the West. Dry complete milk costs moved larger on regular demand and restricted drying/availability. Dry whey costs moved larger throughout all areas. Shifts from drying condensed whey to the processing of upper protein concentrations continues to be a catalyst in conserving dry whey inventories in examine. Whey protein focus (WPC) 34% costs moved decrease. WPC 34% demand has been tepid, regardless of inventories not being famous as heavy. Lactose costs have been unchanged this week, as processors share worldwide pursuits stay regular. Each acid and rennet casein costs held regular throughout week 24.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) releases month-to-month export knowledge which incorporates export volumes and values for natural milk categorized as HS-10 code 0401201000. Just lately launched knowledge for April 2024 indicated natural milk exports have been 136,395 liters, up 3.2 p.c from the month prior, and up 37.5 p.c from 2023. Exports of natural milk from the beginning of the 12 months via April are up 12.8 p.c, in comparison with the identical time interval one 12 months in the past. In a latest report from a Pacific Northwest livestock public sale, the highest 10 natural cull cows traded decrease than standard cull cows, whereas the general common for natural cull cow costs traded decrease than the general common for standard cull cows. The common value for the highest 10 natural cows auctioned was $132.38 per hundredweight, in comparison with a median value of $149.29 per hundredweight for auctioned high 10 standard cows. The Nationwide Natural Requirements Board (NOSB) is looking for nominations to fill 5 vacant spots, with phrases starting in January 2025. Board members signify particular sectors of the natural group and serve a 5-year time period.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Whole standard dairy advertisements elevated 1 p.c, whereas natural dairy advertisements elevated by 36 p.c. Typical cheese was probably the most marketed dairy commodity. Typical ice cream in 48-64 ounce container was probably the most marketed single merchandise. Natural milk in half-gallon containers was probably the most marketed single natural dairy merchandise this week. As a commodity, standard butter advertisements decreased 17 p.c from the earlier week.
