Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reviews of world protein information
20 September 2024
16 minute learn
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Internet US gross sales of 15,500 MT for 2024 have been up 36 % from the earlier week and a pair of % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase have been primarily for South Korea (3,700 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), China (3,000 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Japan (2,900 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), Canada (1,500 MT), and Mexico (1,400 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Whole internet gross sales of 800 MT for 2025 have been for Japan. Exports of 16,400 MT have been up 39 % from the earlier week and 22 % from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to South Korea (4,400 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), China (2,700 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), and Taiwan (900 MT).
Pork: Internet US gross sales of 29,000 MT for 2024 have been down 3 % from the earlier week, however up 3 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase have been primarily for Japan (7,900 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (5,700 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), Colombia (3,300 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Canada (3,200 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), and South Korea (1,900 MT, together with decreases of 1,100 MT). Internet gross sales of 100 MT for 2025 leading to will increase for Australia (200 MT), have been offset by reductions for the Dominican Republic (100 MT). Exports of 31,400 MT have been up 22 % from the earlier week and 12 % from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (12,600 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), China (3,800 MT), South Korea (2,400 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT).
US port strike would influence livestock/meat
Nearly all of soybean and grain exports from the Gulf or East Coast wouldn’t be impacted by a possible dock employees’ strike amid negotiations between the Worldwide Longshoremen’s Affiliation (ILA) and the USA Maritime Alliance (USMX). Bulk grain export services sometimes function with completely different labor preparations, equivalent to their very own staff or completely different labor unions. Nonetheless, the strike would influence exports equivalent to soybeans, soymeal and different agricultural merchandise exported by way of containers and not directly have an effect on grain producers via disruptions within the livestock business. East and Gulf Coast ports accounted for 44% of U.S. waterborne pork exports and 29% of waterborne beef exports within the first half of this 12 months. New York/New Jersey, Wilmington and Charleston have been the biggest East/Gulf ports for pork exports and Houston was the biggest for beef.
China’s pork imports bounce in August however nonetheless under year-ago
China imported 200,000 MT of pork in August, up sharply from solely 90,000 MT in July however nonetheless 2.3% under year-ago. By means of the primary eight months of this 12 months, China imported 1.5 MMT of pork, down 23.1% from the identical interval final 12 months.
FDA finds milk in some “dairy-free” darkish chocolate merchandise, urges warning for allergy victims
The FDA, alongside state companies from Pennsylvania and Michigan, has launched outcomes from a 2022-2023 sampling of “dairy-free” darkish chocolate and chocolate-containing merchandise. Of 210 samples examined, 13 have been discovered to comprise milk, with one testing at a hazardous stage of 1,083 ppm. The milk contamination was traced to a provider of darkish chocolate slightly than manufacturing points. In response, two producers eliminated “dairy-free” labels, whereas a 3rd agreed to take action pending additional investigation. The FDA urges shoppers with milk allergic reactions to contact producers for detailed product data and can proceed monitoring for unintended milk in “dairy-free” labeled merchandise.
USDA annual report on European Union livestock business
EU Beef and Pork Manufacturing Will Peak This Yr
Cattle and Beef – EU Beef Manufacturing Is Forecast to Briefly Enhance in 2024. Herd Dimension and Calf Crop: As a consequence of a dim financial outlook and mounting laws, the EU herd measurement and calf crop are forecast to shrink for the ninth successive 12 months in 2025. The lower is forecast to happen in primarily Western Europe. In Central Europe, each the dairy and beef cow herds are stabilizing mixed with a focus and commercialization of the sector.
Slaughter and Commerce: This 12 months, slaughter is forecast to speed up brought on by comparatively excessive costs for steer and cow carcasses. One other consider primarily Western Europe is the outbreaks of the Bluetongue Virus (sort BTV-3) and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Illness (EHD). As a consequence of a smaller herd measurement and calf crop, slaughter is projected to say no subsequent 12 months. EU cattle exports are dropping due to considerably decrease shipments to Turkey.
Beef Manufacturing: A hike ikn slaughter and elevated carcass weights are forecast to extend EU beef manufacturing by 2.2 % in 2024. Assuming steady weights at slaughter, EU beef manufacturing is projected to say no by 1.5 % in 2025.
Beef Home Gross sales and Commerce: Regardless of the elevated manufacturing, the EU beef market stays tight, as imports proceed to shrink, and exports surge. The EU’s fundamental export marketplace for cattle, Turkey, is shifting from importing cattle to importing beef. Because of this, beef exports are forecast to extend by greater than ten % this 12 months and stay at a comparatively excessive stage subsequent 12 months.
Swine and Pork – Much like Beef, Pork Manufacturing Will Briefly Get well in 2024.
Herd Dimension and Pig Crop: In 2023, EU piglet manufacturing reached a report low, whereas feed costs fell, and the demand for piglets rose. Report piglet costs tempted breeders to increase their sow inventory throughout 2023. Due to the bigger sow herd initially of this 12 months, the pig crop will rebound in 2024. This cycle is anticipated to achieve a brand new report low in 2025.
Slaughter and Commerce: According to the pig crop development, slaughter is forecast to extend by 0.9 % this 12 months and anticipated to fall by 1.7 % subsequent 12 months. The commerce of stay swine performs a minor position within the whole swine stability of EU.
Pork Manufacturing: This 12 months, EU pork manufacturing is strengthened by larger weights at slaughter. EU pork manufacturing is forecast to extend by 2.0 in 2024 and decline by 1.7 in 2025. A further quantity of pork is especially projected to be produced in Spain, destined for exports to EU and third nation markets, and in Central Europe, most consumed domestically.
Pork Home Gross sales and Commerce: EU Pork consumption is barely rising in Central and Southern Europe. Nonetheless, each home consumption and exports won’t be able to soak up the elevated provide. The oversupply of pork is anticipated to extend competitors and decrease costs. These decrease costs might enhance the competitiveness of EU pork on the international market.
California’s Proposition 12, which went into full impact on Jan. 1, 2024, has had a number of vital impacts
Implementation and enforcement. Proposition 12 requires farm house owners, operators, and distributors of lined cattle (egg-laying hens, industrial breeding pigs, and veal calves) to supply extra humane residing circumstances. Key elements of implementation embrace:
- Lined entities should register with the California Division of Meals and Agriculture and endure on-site inspections.
- The legislation applies to each in-state and out-of-state entities promoting merchandise in California.
- Violations are thought-about misdemeanors with fines as much as $1,000.
Financial influence on shoppers. The legislation has led to elevated costs for affected animal merchandise in California:
- Egg costs have risen by an estimated $0.25 to $0.73 per dozen. This interprets to an annual loss for shoppers of $223 million to $664 million for eggs alone.
- Pork costs are estimated to have improve dby about 25 cents per pound.
- Total, shoppers are anticipated to pay $1.1 million extra for regulated egg and pork merchandise within the first 12 months.
Impression on producers. The legislation has created challenges and alternatives for producers:
- Pork producers face vital prices to conform, with an estimated $3.5 million funding wanted to retrofit pens on a mean farm.
- Some producers view Prop 12 as opening a brand new market, whereas others resist California dictating manufacturing strategies.
- The legislation might result in consolidation within the pork business and a possible shrinking of the nationwide hog herd.
Authorized and political implications. Proposition 12 has confronted authorized challenges and sparked political debates:
- The U.S. Supreme Courtroom upheld the legislation in Could 2023, rejecting claims that it violated the dormant Commerce Clause.
- Some business teams proceed to oppose the legislation, pushing for federal laws to ban state-level confinement requirements.
- The Biden administration has expressed issues about potential “chaos” within the pork business as a result of legislation.
Broader influence. Proposition 12 has influenced animal welfare insurance policies past California:
- A number of different states, together with Massachusetts, Arizona, Colorado, and Ohio, have handed related legal guidelines addressing farm animal confinement.
- The legislation has sparked discussions about potential federal grants to assist producers adjust to the brand new requirements.
USDA annual report on poultry business
Pushed by robust inside demand, EU rooster meat manufacturing is predicted to develop in 2024 and 2025. In 2025, Poland will stay the biggest EU rooster meat producer, accounting for greater than 22 % of all EU manufacturing. Fueled by each home and export demand, Polish rooster manufacturing continues to develop, benefiting from decrease feed prices and decreased competitors from Ukraine.
The EU rooster business typically operates on a brief two to three-month manufacturing cycle which could be very reactive to market circumstances and exterior occasions. USDA forecasts are due to this fact primarily based on assumptions and data which can be out there on the time of publication. EU rooster meat commerce surplus is predicted to extend in 2024 and 2025 as imports are declining and exports are regaining misplaced floor. The UK is predicted to grow to be the biggest provider of poultry meat to the EU. UK and EU poultry merchants are adapting to post-Brexit circumstances, complying with EU veterinary guidelines and different necessities.
The UK maintains a aggressive benefit in delivery contemporary/chilled rooster meat to the EU, whereas importing inexpensive Ukrainian rooster meat at zero responsibility. EU imports of Brazilian rooster meat stay constrained by ongoing sanitary restrictions that apply to sure export services. Whereas EU rooster meat imports from Ukraine have doubled since 2022, Ukrainian exporters now face rising constraints with EU laws and export licenses. A number of commerce bans associated to Extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have been lifted or have been amended to replicate regionalization. This can propel progress of EU exports in 2024.
The UK stays the biggest buyer of EU rooster meat. Exports of low-priced frozen cuts (largely darkish meat) and mechanically deboned rooster meat to sub-Sahara Africa are anticipated to extend Regardless of meals inflation and better power prices, EU rooster meat consumption is predicted to stay robust in 2024 and 2025. Handy to make use of and cheaper relative to different animal protein, rooster meat is the animal protein of selection.
EU rooster consumption is rising consistent with demographic progress. Consumption can also be slowly rising on a per capita consumption foundation. Whereas premium manufacturing schemes like natural, free vary, and GMO-free fed rooster have gained quite a lot of assist all through the EU, consumption of inexpensive rooster meat cuts is rising at a a lot sooner fee in comparison with extra premium merchandise like breasts and entire birds.
China’s sow herd contracts 5.4%
China’s sow herd stood at 40.41 million head on the finish of July, down 5.4% from final 12 months, the agricultural ministry stated.
US dairy business bets massive on cheese amid rising consumption
Bloomberg reviews cheese consumption within the US has surged, with Individuals now consuming 42 kilos per capita yearly, greater than doubling for the reason that authorities started preserving monitor in 1975. Dairy producers are investing billions in cheese manufacturing, anticipating continued demand. Corporations like Nice Lakes Cheese and Sargento Meals are increasing capability, whereas low-carb diets and pandemic-induced residence cooking have boosted cheese’s recognition. Nonetheless, specialists warn of potential oversupply as food regimen developments shift, although U.S. exports proceed to develop. The business stays hopeful that different dairy merchandise will assist stability any extra.
H5N1 chook flu detected in eight California dairy herds, USDA confirms
The H5N1 chook flu virus has been present in eight dairy herds in California, in keeping with USDA Deputy Undersecretary Eric Deeble. Cattle from the primary three herds examined constructive for a similar variant detected in different states, with exams on the remaining 5 herds to be accomplished this week. All herds have been quarantined. Moreover, a Missouri particular person beforehand hospitalized with avian influenza has recovered. Well being officers additionally introduced a marketing campaign to inoculate farmworkers in opposition to seasonal flu beginning in October.
US ninth Circuit weighs EPA’s CAFO regulation method in key authorized battle
The US ninth Circuit Courtroom heard arguments in a lawsuit filed by Meals and Water Watch, in search of to compel the EPA to rethink its denial of a 2017 petition for stricter water air pollution laws at concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Environmental teams problem the EPA’s 2023 choice to disclaim a petition for stricter laws, arguing that the company is neglecting its responsibility to manage CAFO air pollution. The EPA defends its stance, prioritizing additional research earlier than regulatory adjustments. Agricultural business teams, citing a 2005 courtroom choice, assist the EPA’s present method. The result might reshape CAFO regulation, with implications for environmental safety and the agricultural sector.
Of observe: Senior Decide Jay Bybee referred to as the state of affairs “awkward,” suggesting the courtroom might defer to the EPA’s ongoing evaluations. The lawsuit highlights issues over the almost 10,000 unpermitted CAFOs allegedly discharging pollution into waterways. A choice might take as much as a 12 months.
Weekly USDA dairy report
BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $3.1300. The weekly common for Grade AA is $3.1510 (-0.0084). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $2.4850 and 40# blocks at $2.2750. The weekly common for barrels is $2.3860 (+0.1272) and blocks $2.2890 (+0.0527). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3925. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.3920 (+0.0370). DRY WHEY: Additional grade dry whey closed at $0.6050. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.5930 (+0.0205).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: For the West, home butter demand varies from robust to regular. Within the Central, home butter demand is robust with week-to-week momentum persevering with. Within the East, home butter demand is weaker. Export demand is reasonable to weak. Cream volumes are tighter to various levels all through the nation. Nonetheless, butter producers point out cream availability is ample for manufacturing wants. Butter makers convey manufacturing schedules are robust or regular within the West, and lighter within the Central and East areas. Unsalted butter spot masses are looser for some elements of the nation. Bulk butter overages vary from minus 5 to 10 cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Contacts proceed to share regular to lighter cheese manufacturing schedules all through the U.S. Within the East, milk availability stays tight, particularly as Class I bottling orders draw upon milk provides out there for Class III producers. Demand for cheese from patrons is regular to stronger within the area. Within the Central area, milk availability stays tight. Spot milk costs vary from $1 to $4 over Class III costs. Some Central area retail cheddar and Italian fashion cheese producers relay energetic manufacturing schedules to maintain inventories available. Within the West, cheese producers relay regular manufacturing. Demand from spot purchasers is regular. Cheese barrel inventories are tightening within the area.
FLUID MILK: Seasonal developments proceed to affect milk manufacturing in a lot of the United States. Contacts within the Southeast and Central states observe milk ranges are decrease than final month, however element ranges are bettering. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states are experiencing regular manufacturing on the farm stage. Farms within the West are seeing barely stronger milk volumes in all however Arizona the place numbers are holding regular. Class I demand for milk is robust nationwide as faculty bottling orders pour in. Spot milk costs reached $4-over Class III this week. The heavier Class I processing is creating some extra spot cream volumes for the market. Down the road, Class III and IV finish customers are absorbing out there cream as processors ramp up cream cheese and butter manufacturing for the approaching baking season. Scattered spot a great deal of cream are discovering finish customers as some masses journey from the West to different areas. Class II and IV milk calls for are regular within the West. Processors say milk volumes ae assembly manufacturing wants. Condensed skim availability is tighter throughout the nation as Class I bottling demand holds robust. Cream multiples for all Courses are 1.23- 1.45 within the East, 1.22-1.35 within the Midwest, and 1.10-1.30 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Most dairy powders are within the midst of a bullish push. Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs moved up all through the nation. Contacts say restricted provides and regular demand have propelled market costs larger. Dry buttermilk costs have been an exception to the rule this week, as costs held regular. Pursuits for dry buttermilk are anticipated to perk up throughout This autumn buying and selling, however contacts observe a rangebound high quality in the mean time. Dry entire milk costs moved larger once more, on account of tight availability. Dry whey costs have been regular or larger nationwide. Seasonal milk limitations have saved Class III processing in test whereas excessive protein focus markets are pushing extra whey solids into these channels. Whey protein 34% costs pushed larger, bolstered by bullish NDM markets. Lactose costs have been regular, however spot buying and selling is energetic. Acid casein costs elevated, whereas rennet casein costs have been unchanged throughout week 37.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS
WEST EUROPE: Weekly milk collections proceed to indicate a seasonal slide in volumes, and element ranges are nonetheless decrease than typical. As well as, dairy contacts within the northern areas of West Europe recommend the unfold of bluetongue illness is having a marked influence on milk output. Bluetongue illness is a viral illness impacting home and wild ruminants and is transmitted by biting midges (gnats). It has a excessive mortality fee inside sheep populations. And though much less deadly in cattle, contaminated dairy cows undergo well being and fertility points that result in decreased milk manufacturing, typically lasting as much as 2 to three months. In some instances, farmers select to ship the affected cows for slaughter slightly than watch for the animal to completely get well. The illness doesn’t pose a menace to human well being or meals security. In elements of the UK, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany, the place the illness is current, restricted zones are created to restrict the motion of livestock and genetic merchandise. Vaccines for the illness grew to become out there on the finish of April 2024, however there may be some query concerning the efficacy of the vaccines. As well as, cattle inoculation charges are a lot decrease than sheep inoculation charges. Farmers are hoping a colder than common winter could also be the very best therapy, eliminating the midges and stopping the illness from reappearing subsequent spring.
EAST EUROPE: Like elsewhere in Europe, milk collections in East Europe are seasonally lowering. In some elements of East Europe, drought circumstances have decreased crop, pasture and finally milk manufacturing. In accordance with the European Fee, elements of Poland, the southern Baltic area, Greece, a lot of the Balkans, Ukraine and southern Russia have been below drought warning circumstances on the mid-point of August. Greater than common temperatures and lack of moisture have decreased crop and forage volumes.
OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: In accordance with Dairy Australia, July 2024 milk manufacturing was up from July 2023, whereas June 2024 packaged milk gross sales have been down from June 2023. Packaged milk gross sales from the beginning of the season in July 2023 via June 2024 have been up in comparison with the identical time interval a 12 months earlier.
NEW ZEALAND: A gaggle in New Zealand, which forecasts dairy costs, decreased the forecasted milk value for the 2024/2025 season, following GDT occasion 363. The group said declining costs for WMP futures have had a unfavorable influence on forecasted milk costs. They additional famous strengthening futures costs for different commodities, noting butter, have decreased the downward stress from WMP. A New Zealand dairy cooperative just lately introduced July 2024 milk manufacturing was up from a 12 months earlier. From the beginning of the milk manufacturing season in June 2024 via July 2024, milk manufacturing throughout the cooperative’s community within the nation was up in comparison with the identical time interval a 12 months earlier.
SOUTH AMERICA: This time final 12 months, reviews have been suggesting a “banner 12 months” in farm milk output in Brazil and customarily strengthening milk output within the Southern Cone. This 12 months, the sentiment has modified. Contacts say farm milk output, in some areas, is as a lot as 5 % lower than it was this time final 12 months. As is frequent on the continent, climate circumstances range extensively. Contacts in Uruguay say moist early season climate has become hotter, and largely dryer, circumstances in current weeks. In Mato Grosso, the “breadbasket” of Brazil, droughts and wildfires brought about delays within the latter levels of the safrinha corn harvest and summer time corn planting. Wildfires have additionally grow to be a bigger concern in Mato Grosso and different Brazilian states.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Whole typical dairy ads decreased by 13 % whereas whole natural dairy advertisements elevated by 38 %. Typical ice cream in 48-64- ounce containers was probably the most marketed dairy product, with a weighted common marketed value of $4.38, up from $4.00 the week earlier than. Typical butter in one-pound packages had a weighted common marketed value of $4.74, up from $4.48 the week prior.
