In contrast with 2023, will increase in each manufacturing and exports are forecast for the European Union (EU) poultry sector this yr.
For EU member states, year-on-year will increase of 4% in manufacturing and three% in exports of poultry meat are forecast for 2024. Moreover, these tendencies are anticipated to proceed into subsequent yr.
These are among the many constructive forecasts within the autumn 2024 replace within the sequence “Quick-term outlook for EU agricultural markets” from the European Fee (EC) Directorate-Basic for Agriculture and Rural Improvement.
Typically throughout agriculture, the EC notes a development in the direction of stabilization of the markets following a sequence of financial shocks and volatility for the present yr. Nevertheless, the report is extra constructive nonetheless for the poultry meat sector, whereas cautioning that extremely pathogenic avian influenza stays a “excessive concern” for the business throughout the area and elsewhere on the earth.
Manufacturing restoration set to proceed
For the primary six months of 2024, complete EU manufacturing of poultry meat was 4% increased than within the comparable interval of final yr.
This determine was pushed partially by distinctive will increase in France and Hungary. Growth amounted to 116,000 metric tons (mt) and 34,000mt, respectively. These will increase equated to just about 16% and 14%, respectively.
Six-month output totals for France and Italy this yr are properly over 20% increased than in the identical interval of 2022.
Whereas most member states raised output in each 2023 and 2024, poultry meat manufacturing was down year-on-year for the most recent six months in Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Sweden. In contrast with 2022, Dutch manufacturing has dropped by virtually 5%.
Over the January-June 2024 interval, producer costs throughout the bloc remained over EUR2,500 (US$2,740) per metric ton.
For 2025, the EC is forecasting a smaller year-on-year improve in manufacturing of 0.9% as a results of a stabilizing world market and rising value competitors from different meats.
EC is forecasting a big improve in per-capita consumption in 2024 of virtually 1kg or 3.5% to 24.6kg, based mostly on plentiful provides and customarily constructive client attitudes to poultry throughout the EU. For subsequent yr, uptake development is predicted to sluggish to round 0.6% at 25.2kg.
EU exports up, imports down in 2024
Shipments of EU poultry meat throughout the first half of 2024 had been up 11% year-on-year, in accordance to the EC’s outlook report. Export quantity for the interval near 900,000mt.
Contribution to this improve had been increased volumes to locations together with the Philippines, Democratic Republic of Congo, Vietnam, the UK (U.Ok.), and Saudi Arabia. Of the main markets, solely Ukraine acquired decrease shipments of EU meat than within the comparable interval.
For the entire of 2024, the EC is forecasting a 3% improve in poultry meat exports by the bloc.
In distinction, first-half imports of poultry meat into the EU had been round 420,000mt. That is 4.5% (20,370mt) much less for the January-June interval than within the first half of 2023.
Whereas product from the U.Ok. confirmed a big restoration, volumes from Brazil, Thailand, and Ukraine had been all decrease than final yr — every by between 11 and 12%.
A year-on-year decline of 0.5% is forecast by the EC for the EU’s complete poultry meat imports this yr. Nevertheless, it cautions over uncertainties over developments in the primary international locations of origin throughout the remainder of this yr and into 2025.
