KATHMANDU — Scientists and authorities officers have launched into the uphill activity of arising with a quantity, and even only a vary, for the inhabitants of snow leopards within the Himalayan nation.
To take action, they’re having to depend on a number of fragmented research carried out throughout completely different durations of time in several landscapes throughout the nation.
The endeavor is Nepal‘s dedication to the Inhabitants Evaluation of the World’s Snow Leopards program, or PAWS. This system was adopted in 2019 by 12 international locations that host populations of snow leopards (Panthera uncia) and is a part of the International Snow Leopard and Ecosystem Safety Program (GSLEP).
“Earlier snow leopard inhabitants research in Nepal in addition to many different international locations usually confronted limitations attributable to sampling bias, with smaller, high-density areas resulting in inflated inhabitants estimates,” stated Rinzin Phunjok Lama, a snow leopard researcher who’s on the newly shaped authorities committee to conduct the depend.
As a result of the vary international locations hadn’t agreed on a standardized strategy, it turned difficult to match and mixture information throughout areas earlier than PAWS was rolled out.
Within the context of Nepal, pioneering telemetry work by researcher Rodney Jackson and his workforce within the late Nineteen Eighties and early ’90s kind the bedrock of inhabitants estimates inside the nation. They first estimated the snow leopard inhabitants in Nepal to be round 150-300 in 1979 and later revised the quantity as much as 350-500 people primarily based on a computerized habitat suitability mannequin. In 2009, researchers from WWF and the Division of Nationwide Parks and Wildlife Conservation (DNPWC) got here up with a brand new estimate of 301-400 primarily based on a mannequin describing the connection between signal (scrape) encounter charges, the snow leopard numbers assessed via genetic evaluation, and the habitat suitability evaluation within the Nepal Himalayas.
The determine was additionally acknowledged by the federal government’s inaugural Snow Leopard Motion Plan (2005-15), revised in 2012. A 2013 estimate by the GSLEP, nonetheless, steered the quantity to be round 300-500
The brand new inhabitants evaluation committee, now headed by DNPWC senior ecologist Hari Bhadra Acharya, was arrange in the course of this 12 months and had deliberate to give you the quantity by Snow Leopard Day, Oct. 23. Nonetheless, a bunch of points associated to the methodology of the estimate has delayed the method, a committee member instructed Mongabay.
“We’ve got been engaged on the evaluation for a couple of months now,” assist Kamal Thapa, a snow leopard researcher on the committee. “Nonetheless, issues have been tough as we have to adhere to the PAWS pointers and look into completely different research using completely different methodologies in several time durations [and] completely different landscapes.”
The PAWS pointers, ready by a workforce of consultants in snow leopard science and conservation, addresses gaps in inhabitants evaluation research by implementing statistically strong strategies like spatial capture-recapture modeling and increasing survey areas, aiming to offer extra correct, landscape-level estimates of snow leopard populations throughout their vary.
Whereas Nepal routinely carries out simultaneous, national-scale counts of its extra celebrated massive cat, the tiger (Panthera tigris), it has by no means carried out so for snow leopards within the jap, central and western landscapes of the nation through which they happen. Particular person researchers and organizations have carried out each camera-trap and genetic research in several landscapes, however these efforts have largely been remoted and uncoordinated.
For instance, researcher Madhu Chetri from the Nationwide Belief for Nature Conservation (NTNC) targeted on the Annapurna area of the central panorama; WWF works largely within the Kanchenjunga area of the jap panorama; the evaluation committee’s Lama, an award-winning conservationist, has specialised in Humla within the western panorama; and Bikram Shrestha, a number one researcher on snow leopards, targeted on Sagarmatha, the native identify for Mount Everest, within the jap panorama.
Every has printed their findings sporadically.
“The problem is to mixture all these publications and include an estimate,” Thapa stated.
The perfect situation, he stated, can be to arrange digital camera traps throughout all identified snow leopard habitats within the nation at one go, simply as is finished within the case of tigers. “Though that might contain lots of monetary and technical sources, the federal government is definitely able to doing it if it needs to take action,” Thapa stated.
Each 4 years, the DNPWC conducts a nationwide survey of tigers and their prey to judge the effectiveness of conservation interventions. The fourth nationwide survey was carried out between December 2021 and April 2022.
However not everybody agrees {that a} comparable technique would work for snow leopards. Shyam Kumar Shah, who was till lately the coordinator of the federal government’s snow leopard evaluation committee, stated the cat’s habitats cowl huge landscapes, making it unfeasible to undertake a depend technique much like that for tigers. “That’s why we have to give you estimates,” he stated.
Lama agreed, saying, “It’s simply not doable to depend snow leopards the way in which tigers are counted. The terrain is rugged and the local weather harsh; the animal may be very elusive.”
The PAWS pointers set out requirements for information assortment and processing to give you nationwide inhabitants estimates. Lama stated the methodology utilized by the federal government to give you earlier estimates would most likely be invalid beneath these new pointers. For instance, the rules say that digital camera trap-based inhabitants research must cowl no less than 500 sq. kilometers (practically 200 sq. miles), which is tough to stick to in Nepal’s Himalayas.
The important thing problem the committee has encountered is to make camera-trap information comparable with the genetic information. Whereas some inhabitants research are primarily based on digital camera traps, others are primarily based on DNA evaluation of scat. Research that use each strategies, and due to this fact yield extra correct findings, are uncommon, Thapa stated. The committee members are attempting to give you a option to seize the relation between camera-trap information and DNA information, Thapa instructed Mongabay. Equally, there are potential snow leopard habitats in areas resembling Dhorpatan, Dhaulagiri and Api-Nampa, within the nation’s western area, the place researchers are but to hold out detailed research.
The brand new estimate that the committee comes up with within the subsequent few months can be necessary for snow leopard conservation in Nepal, consultants say. Nepal is believed to be house to round 10% of the world’s snow leopards, and funding for conservation applications for the species is influenced by its share of the worldwide inhabitants.
“We additionally must get a way of the variety of snow leopards we now have to evaluate if our conservation applications are working or not,” stated conservationist Karan Bahadur Shah. “It’s as important as a authorities conducting a census of its residents.”
Would the quantity replicate the actual inhabitants of the elusive cats within the nation? Committee members have combined responses. Thapa stated the quantity the committee comes up with can be backed by science. “However on the finish of the day it’s going to stay an ‘educated guess’ because the cat is so tough to trace,” he stated.
After it comes up with a quantity, the committee is predicted to current its findings to the federal government in addition to the PAWS committee, which can have a look at the methodology and findings. This, researchers say, ought to enhance the robustness of the info.
Lama stated he’s optimistic that the quantity, or the vary, the committee comes up with can be an correct reflection of actuality. “To begin with, the entire course of and the info can be reviewed. Second, we now have lined round 50% of potential snow leopard habitat in Nepal with no less than one camera-trap or genetic examine,” he stated.
He added his expertise has proven that the majority of the snow leopard inhabitants in Nepal is concentrated across the Annapurna area and areas to its west. “As these areas are well-represented by way of inhabitants assessments, the ultimate quantity can be near correct,” he stated.
Committee members say they imagine they’ll want one other three or 4 months no less than to hold out the evaluation and make the figures public. Till then, snow leopard researchers and conservationists must make do with the 2009 findings
This article by Abhaya Raj Joshi was first printed by Mongabay.com on 30 October 2024. Lead Picture: A snow leopard photographed in Nepal’s Himalayas. Picture courtesy of Sanjog Rai/ WWF Nepal.
What you are able to do
Assist to save lots of wildlife by donating as little as $1 – It solely takes a minute.
