Weekly international protein digest: US Thanksgiving prices shift amid falling turkey manufacturing

29 November 2024

12 minute learn

US Thanksgiving prices shift amid falling turkey manufacturing

Turkey manufacturing within the US is anticipated to complete 205 million this 12 months, a 6% drop from final 12 months and a 17% decline since 2017, in keeping with USDA’s the Nationwide Agricultural Statistics Service. With demand for turkey additionally falling, costs have decreased by 6% from 2023 to about $1.60 per lb., studies the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). Candy potatoes are extra reasonably priced this 12 months, whereas costs for dinner rolls and cubed stuffing combine have risen. The value of eggs has risen considerably. In complete, AFBF says it’ll price about $58.08 ($5.80 per individual) to feed 10 individuals, down from $61.17 final 12 months and $64.05 in 2022.

US beef shares rise greater than regular; pork shares drop greater than common in October

USDA’s Chilly Storage report confirmed frozen beef shares at 431.9 million lbs. on the finish of October, up 19.4 million lbs. from September, whereas the five-year common was a 15.5-million-lb. enhance throughout the month. Beef inventories fell 13.8 million lbs. (3.1%) from year-ago and 47.3 million lbs. (9.9%) from the five-year common. Pork shares totaled 426.0 million lbs., down 32.4 million lbs. from the earlier month, which was almost double the five-year common decline of 16.8 million lbs. throughout the month. Pork inventories fell 11.9 million lbs. (2.7%) from year-ago and 63.8 million lbs. (13.0%) from the five-year common.

USDA updates meals worth inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025

USDA maintained its 2024 meals worth inflation forecast at 2.3% for all meals, with grocery costs rising 1.2% and restaurant costs rising 4.1%. Notably, costs for fish, seafood (-1.9%), and dairy (-0.1%) are projected to say no.

For 2025, meals worth inflation was revised upward to 2.5%, with grocery costs climbing 1.6% and restaurant costs 3.1%. Recent greens are the one grocery merchandise forecast to say no in worth (-0.7%).

Egg costs stay unstable, with a 6.2% rise anticipated in 2024 and a smaller 3.4% enhance forecast for 2025.

October noticed blended traits: grocery costs fell in 8 classes however rose in 7 others, with annual declines in fish, pork, and processed vegatables and fruits.

Backside line: Whereas the general tempo of inflation is easing, shoppers proceed to face elevated prices, notably in eating places and for choose grocery classes like sugar, sweets, and fat.

Recall alert expanded for ready-to-eat meat and poultry merchandise

Yu Shang Meals has considerably expanded its recall of ready-to-eat meat and poultry merchandise as a consequence of potential Listeria contamination, in keeping with USDA’s Meals Security and Inspection Service (FSIS). Initially recalling 4,500 kilos, the corporate expanded the recall on Nov. 21 to incorporate 72,240 kilos of merchandise. The affected objects, produced earlier than Oct. 28, had been flagged after FSIS routine testing and follow-ups confirmed Listeria contamination in each product and environmental samples.

What merchants and analysts say concerning the U.S./Mexico cattle commerce situation concerning New World Screwworm/NWS)

• Observe: USDA’s Animal and Plant Well being Inspection Service (APHIS) at present at 4:30 p.m. ET is offering for an replace on the New World Screwworm detection in Mexico. APHIS will share any new data that they’ve realized since yesterday’s announcement and can reply questions. They may embrace:
• How lengthy will cattle commerce from Mexico to the US be halted?
  
  — That is the important thing query on everybody’s thoughts.
  
  — It’s value noting that some teams who’re depending on shopping for Mexican feeder cattle have cautioned that limiting commerce may end in retaliatory measures from Mexico shopping for U.S. beef. If this illness is a official menace (which most assume it’s), it might not appear that any retaliation from Mexico can be acceptable. However some U.S. feedlot teams are trying to make use of that argument as leverage to re-open the border.

• The second key questions is that if they’ll establish the placement of the cattle, believed to be south…has there been integration of southern cattle to the north? The NWS was present in a cow within the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, at an inspection checkpoint near the border with Guatemala.
• How rapidly is it anticipated the NWS will unfold? And what’s the confidence USDA is ready to detect it?
• Does Mexico have the sources to regulate and cease the unfold of NWS?
  
  — Are there sufficient sterile flies, and so on?
• What would the impression be to the U.S. cattle/beef business if it was discovered within the U.S.?

• Are the testing protocols that APHIS may implement on the border going to:
  
  1. Be efficient?
  
  2. Be value the price?

• Market impacts: This commerce stoppages comes as there are indicators of retention within the U.S. cattle herd. Market impression can be first on Dec placements with round 150K-200K that would have crossed the border. A few of the retention may even have been coming from heifers introduced in from Mexico, one other door that’s closed.

Unfavourable USDA Cattle on Feed report

USDA estimated there have been 11.986 million head of cattle in giant feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of Nov. 1, up 30,000 head (0.3%) from year-ago. Analysts on common anticipated a 0.1% decline in feedlot inventories. October placements elevated 5.3% and marketings rose 4.7% from year-ago ranges. All the classes got here in on the unfavorable facet of the typical pre-report estimates, which may weigh on cattle futures. However we doubt there can be sustained market impacts.

US egg costs spike amid Avian flu and vacation demand

Egg costs have surged by 30% in comparison with final October, pushed by vacation cooking calls for and a resurgence of Avian flu. “Your baking, cooking, and entertaining all require additional eggs,” stated Emily Metz, CEO of the American Egg Board. Since January 2022, avian flu has plagued farmers, with current outbreaks in key states like Oregon, Utah, and Washington inflicting a projected lack of 60 million eggs, in keeping with USDA.

USDA extends remark interval on cattle market regulation proposal

USDA has prolonged the remark interval for its advance discover of proposed rulemaking on fed cattle market rules. Public suggestions on regulatory choices to deal with worth discovery and equity issues is now due by Jan. 10, 2025, a 30-day extension from the unique deadline. USDA said that enter will form their strategy and potential future regulatory modifications.

Chook flu present in uncooked milk sparks well being issues in California

The H5N1 chicken flu virus was detected in a batch of unpasteurized milk offered by Uncooked Farm in California, prompting a product recall and warnings from well being authorities. The milk, marked with a “greatest by” date of Nov. 27, 2024, has been pulled from retailer cabinets. Well being consultants have lengthy cautioned in opposition to consuming uncooked milk as a consequence of dangers of foodborne diseases, together with salmonella and listeria. The current case follows the primary U.S. baby chicken flu analysis and rising issues because the virus more and more infects mammals and people. Whereas pasteurization kills H5N1, rising demand for uncooked milk, promoted by influencers and wellness advocates, has pushed its availability. Authorities advise avoiding contact with uncooked milk from the affected batch to scale back an infection dangers.

Brazil, China near signing pork offal export protocols

Brazil is near finalizing protocols for exporting pork offal and fish to China, two individuals aware of the matter informed Reuters. The sources stated negotiations for each protocols had been superior and needs to be accomplished quickly, however declined to provide a selected timeframe. A deal may impression exports of U.S. pork merchandise, as China imports round half of all U.S. pork offal shipments.

China widens EU dairy probe

China’s commerce ministry expanded the scope of its anti-subsidy investigation into dairy imports from the European Union to cowl further EU subsidy applications in Denmark, France, Italy and the Netherlands. Regardless of this broadened scrutiny, the probe stays targeted on cheese, milk, and cream merchandise. The addition doesn’t embrace new dairy merchandise and takes under consideration the claims made by EU members and consultations with EU representatives, the ministry stated. The EU is China’s second largest supply of dairy merchandise.

US floor beef recall as a consequence of E. coli contamination

Wolverine Packing Co., a Detroit-based agency, has recalled 167,277 kilos of floor beef doubtlessly contaminated with E. coli, the USDA’s Meals Security and Inspection Service (FSIS) introduced. The recall follows studies of 15 diseases in Minnesota between Nov. 2 and Nov. 10, linked to floor beef from the corporate. Testing by Minnesota’s Division of Agriculture confirmed the contamination. The affected merchandise, produced on Oct. 22 with a use-by date of Nov. 14, had been distributed to eating places nationwide.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (11/22) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.5400. The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.5610 (-0.0595). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6500 and 40# blocks at $1.6450. The weekly common for barrels is $1.7040 (+0.0220) and blocks $1.6945 (+0.0010). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3675. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.3895 (-0.0095). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.6600. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.6455 (+0.0090).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Within the East and Central areas, home butter demand is blended for each the retail and meals service sectors. Within the West area, near-term home butter demand is lighter. Cream volumes are typically available throughout the nation. Many butter producers will not be buying further a great deal of cream, as in community and/or contracted volumes of cream are sufficiently accommodating butter churning schedules in lots of instances. For the East and Central area, stakeholders point out butter manufacturing is regular. For the West area, stakeholders point out regular retail butter manufacturing and lighter bulk butter manufacturing. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to eight cents above market, throughout all areas.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing varies all through the U.S. Within the East area, milk volumes vary from regular to tighter. Cheese plant managers relay regular manufacturing schedules forward of Thanksgiving and notice inventories are extra balanced now than earlier within the 12 months. Within the Central area, milk availability stays blended. Spot milk masses had been reported at Class to $4 above Class III. Some cheese plant managers relay slower manufacturing schedules as vacation cheese orders have been fulfilled. Contacts within the West area share regular cheese manufacturing schedules. Spot milk masses are tighter within the southwest. Contracted cheese demand is regular. Export exercise is trending regular to stronger. Worth factors for home cheeses are aggressive on a global scale.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Fluid milk manufacturing, on the farm degree, is blended throughout the nation, and will get stronger shifting east to west. Pockets of the northeast are seeing weaker volumes, whereas in different parts of the northeast and southeast, milk ranges are ticking up in small increments. Elsewhere within the area volumes are regular. Farms within the Central area are seeing gradual seasonal progress in milk manufacturing. Farms within the West area are seeing regular or strengthening numbers. California handlers convey milk manufacturing is trending barely increased week to week. Farms within the Pacific Northwest are reporting regular volumes. The remaining states are all reporting stronger numbers. Class I bottling demand is powerful all through the nation. Class III demand for milk is powerful within the Central and East areas, whereas the West area is seeing regular demand from cheesemakers. Cream stays amply out there in all areas. Demand for cream for Class IV is regular, however demand is rising for different Lessons. Condensed skim availability is mirroring milk within the East area and is looser within the West area. Demand for condensed skim stays regular. Cream multiples for all Lessons vary 1.20-1.31 within the East, 1.00-1.30 within the Midwest, and 1.00-1.29 within the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: For probably the most half, dry dairy elements stay within the midst of a bullish tailwind. Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs had been increased in all areas. Limitations on NDM provides proceed to be the trigger for not too long ago bolstered markets, as demand notes are regular to quiet. Dry buttermilk costs had been regular to increased all through the nation, as contacts say Western provides are notably tight in current weeks. Dry whey costs moved increased within the Central area, steady to increased within the West and held unchanged within the East. Dry whey buying and selling exercise is quiet as a consequence of considerably cosy spot market availability. Lactose costs had been regular to increased. Whey protein focus 34% costs continued their bullish ascent this week, as demand has continued to strongly overwhelm dwindling provide. Dry entire milk, acid casein and rennet casein costs had been all regular this week, as buying and selling outdoors of contracts is reportedly considerably quiet on these markets.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS

EUROPE: Milk manufacturing stays diversified all through West Europe. In Germany, contacts imagine seasonal lows for milk manufacturing are on the horizon. Within the UK, milk deliveries have been rising barely week over week. In Week 45, cream costs within the European Union crept increased. Worth motion has been attributed to tight milk availability and excessive demand for milkfat. Based on the UK’s Division for Surroundings, Meals and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), the variety of confirmed bluetongue instances in the UK has risen, with confirmed instances in England and Wales. Based on the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine, dairy costs elevated by 30 to 40 p.c in October 2024 in comparison with October 2023. New laws in Russia would standardize terminology for labels on each typical and natural dairy merchandise. Demand has risen for natural items over the previous a number of years, and the brand new laws would enhance safety for natural merchandise and advertising.

OCEANIA: Dairy Australia not too long ago launched export information for Australia exhibiting milk export volumes from July 2024 – September 2024 had been down from the identical time interval a 12 months earlier. Farmgate milk pricing in Australia has stayed flat because the begin of the manufacturing season in July, whereas the World Dairy Commerce (GDT) index has elevated at current buying and selling occasions. A dairy processor which operates in Australia and New Zealand indicated that the farmgate milk worth in New Zealand not too long ago elevated above the Australia farmgate milk worth for the primary time in over 4 years. Milk manufacturing information from New Zealand for October 2024 was not too long ago launched exhibiting complete October 2024 manufacturing was up on a tonnage foundation and the overall kg of milk solids elevated from the earlier 12 months. Lately launched information from New Zealand for September confirmed the variety of dairy cows despatched to slaughter throughout the month declined from September 2023.

SOUTH AMERICA: The climactic circumstances have modified in elements of the South American continent and most of those modifications are considered as helpful for milk output. Brazilian contacts say current rains have stymied the long-lasting drought circumstances. In Uruguay, contacts say spring climate has been hotter than regular and soil circumstances stay dry, however spring rains are anticipated to assist profit circumstances there. Plentiful rainfall in Argentina early within the spring season is giving contacts there bullish expectations as summer season approaches. Dairy commodity buying and selling has been subdued in current weeks. Improved milk availability, regardless of the aforementioned enhancements, has come seasonally late. Entrepreneurs say vacation orders are largely fulfilled and processors are working forward for Q1 wants. Exporters in a number of South American nations have introduced up extra importing alternatives into the US in current report weeks. As excessive protein focus markets are notably tight within the U.S., home importers are interested by these alternatives.

US NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Whole typical dairy commercials elevated whereas complete natural dairy advertisements decreased. Standard ice cream in 48-64-ounce containers was probably the most marketed dairy product, with a weighted common marketed worth down from the week earlier than. Standard butter in one-pound packages was the third most marketed merchandise total and had a weighted common marketed worth down from the week prior.