Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff stories on beef, pork, dairy and poultry information from around the globe
29 March 2024
9 minute learn
China’s hog herd nonetheless too massive regardless of reductions
China’s hog herd will stay in surplus this yr, regardless of new authorities targets to tame oversupply. Earlier this month, Beijing adjusted the nationwide goal for regular retention of breeding sows to 39 million head from 41 million and issued new rules to manage the nation’s pig manufacturing capability. However more and more productive sows and a reluctance in hog farms to destock will hold herd measurement at excessive ranges and costs low. Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. stated the sow herd wants to say no to about 35 million head. It forecasts China’s 2024 pig manufacturing at 717 million head, down 10 million head (1.4%) from final yr.
Replace on chook flu in dairy cattle
- USDA has recognized contaminated cows in 4 dairy herds in Kansas and Texas, and exams of different herds are pending. Dairy cows in New Mexico have additionally exhibited signs of the sickness.
- The areas of the contaminated herds in southwest Kansas and the panhandle of Texas are within the Central Flyway — a significant migratory route that goes west of Iowa, via Nebraska and South Dakota.
- On Monday, exams of milk from the sick cows confirmed that they had been contaminated by the avian flu. These affected had been older animals and sometimes comprised about 10% of the overall herd, USDA reported. The contaminated cows have typically recovered from the sickness, slightly than dying. Milk from sick animals is discarded, and the most-affected herds produced about 40% much less milk for a few week.
- Preliminary evaluation by a USDA lab didn’t detect a genetic change within the virus to make it simply transmissible between mammals, which suggests the contaminated cows are unlikely to contaminate different cows or people.
- A suspected supply of an infection is feed that will get contaminated by wild birds. Contaminated birds can pillage feed that’s out within the open and defecate on it within the course of.
- The illness can infect mammals, too. USDA has an inventory of greater than 200 particular person mammals that had been contaminated with the chook flu prior to now two years in the USA. The record contains fox, opossum, squirrels, dolphins and grizzly bears. Final week, Minnesota introduced that chook flu had killed at the least one younger goat at a farm the place poultry had been contaminated in February. It was the primary identified an infection of US livestock by the virus.
Argentina’s February beef export surge to 57-year excessive
Argentina exported 82,548 MT of beef in February, the largest month-to-month complete since 1967. Through the first two months of this yr, Argentine beef shipments reached a report 160,478 MT, with greater than three-quarters of the overall going to China.
China’s sow herd, hog slaughter shrinks in February
China had 40.42 million sows on the finish of February, down 0.6% from January and 6.9% lower than final yr, the ag ministry stated. The variety of pigs slaughtered in February fell 6.9% from final yr to 21.04 million head, a 43.5% drop from January.
USDA discovers chook flu in unpasteurized milk samples from dairy cattle at Texas and Kansas farms
USDA revealed that unpasteurized milk samples from sick cattle at two dairy farms in Kansas and one in Texas, in addition to an oropharyngeal swab from one other dairy in Texas, examined optimistic for extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
USDA, together with numerous businesses and officers, is investigating instances of extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle throughout Texas, Kansas, and New Mexico. Samples from sick cattle in these states have examined optimistic for HPAI, with the sickness believed to be linked to wild birds based mostly on preliminary findings in Texas. Nonetheless, no mutations indicating elevated transmissibility to people have been recognized. Signs in affected cattle embrace decreased lactation, low urge for food, and different systemic points.
USDA reassures that there isn’t any human well being danger or danger to the milk provide, as milk from affected animals is both diverted or destroyed, and pasteurization successfully eliminates micro organism and viruses. Solely round 10% of affected herds have been impacted, with minimal mortality reported. Moreover, the variety of affected cattle is just too small to considerably influence milk provide or costs.
Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller stated that whereas the $50 billion Texas dairy trade faces challenges, he ensures shoppers of security measures to stop contaminated milk getting into the availability chain. Cattle with HPAI present flu-like signs and diminished milk manufacturing, prompting biosecurity measures and disposal of contaminated milk. In contrast to poultry, Miller does not foresee depopulating dairy herds as cattle can get better. Texas Division of Agriculture pledges help and urges farmers to inform veterinarians of suspected instances.
Of be aware: A complete of 79.7 million home birds, largely egg-laying hens and turkeys being raised for human consumption, have died from HPAI or in eradication efforts because the first confirmed outbreak on Feb. 8, 2022. Since then, the illness has been confirmed in 1,059 flocks in 47 states.
Commerce impacts: A bunch of dairy commerce organizations launched a joint assertion on the outbreak urging U.S. buying and selling companions to keep away from putting bans on American dairy merchandise in response to the detection. The Worldwide Dairy Meals Affiliation, the Nationwide Milk Producers Federation, the U.S. Dairy Export Council and Dairy Administration Inc. had been among the many teams that signed onto the assertion. “It’s important that buying and selling companions don’t impose bans or restrictions on the worldwide commerce of dairy commodities in response to those and future notifications and depend on the science-based meals security steps taken in U.S. dairy processing, specifically pasteurization, in preserving market entry,” the teams stated.
February US frozen meat shares sign robust demand
USDA’s Chilly Storage Report confirmed frozen pork shares declined contra-seasonally throughout February, whereas beef inventories fell greater than common. Beef inventories on the finish of February totaled 442.8 million lbs., down 28.5 million lbs. from January. The five-year common was a 12.9-million-lb. decline throughout the month. Beef inventories dropped 58.0 million lbs. (11.6%) from year-ago and had been 59.8 million lbs. (11.9%) lower than the five-year common. Pork shares dropped 6.8 million lbs. throughout February to 456.5 million lbs., whereas the five-year common was a 29.7-million-lb. enhance for the month. Pork inventories fell 65.1 million lbs. (12.5%) from February 2023 and had been 93.0 million lbs. (16.9%) lower than the five-year common.
Chick-fil-A reverses its 2014 dedication to make use of solely antibiotic-free hen
The fast-food agency will now enable some antibiotics in its hen beginning within the spring of 2024. The restaurant chain introduced the shift from “No Antibiotics Ever” (NAE) to “No Antibiotics Necessary to Human Medication” (NAIHM) on its web site. Antibiotics will likely be used on the chickens provided that they or surrounding animals develop into sick, and the antibiotics used aren’t meant for human consumption.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (3/22) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.8075. The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.8210 (-$0.0080). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4250 and 40# blocks at $1.3925. The weekly common for barrels is $1.4780, (+$0.0410) and blocks, $1.4280 (-$0.0215). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1075. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1205 (-$0.0445). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.3950. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.4130 (-$0.0170).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Retail demand is robust to regular throughout the nation. Nonetheless, stakeholders be aware curiosity for securing hundreds for the spring vacation season varies from choosing up slowly to regular. Meals service demand is flat to weaker. Cream is available all through a lot of the nation. Butter manufacturing is blended. Within the East, numerous butter makers point out churning varies from as a lot as doable to as minimal as doable. Within the Central, butter makers point out regular churning and will increase with micro-fixing bulk volumes. Within the West, butter makers point out robust to regular manufacturing schedules. Some producers be aware tight spot load availability for unsalted butter. Bulk butter overages vary from 3 to 12 cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Milk manufacturing continues to pattern larger within the East area. Cheese plant managers be aware that manufacturing schedules are regular. Inventories stay comfy as cheese demand stays quiet. Contacts share retail demand is growing. Cheese demand within the Central area is trending larger. Cheese plant managers share that they’re operating strong manufacturing. Spot milk costs vary from $3- below Class III to flat market. Within the West, cheese manufacturing schedules are regular to stronger as milk availability stays ample. Contracted cheese demand is regular, although spot demand is trending lighter. Some contacts share present market circumstances are weakening export demand.
FLUID MILK: Milk manufacturing is regular to stronger all through the nation. Open processing capacities are tight in some elements of the nation. Balancing vegetation are busier with heavier milk volumes because the nation cycles via session breaks at instructional services. In California, some vegetation going via system changeovers/upgrades have had a number of prolonged unplanned downtimes. Processors say in some elements of the Western area spot load availability is tight. Spot milk affords as little as $6-under Class III had been reported for the Central area, though accomplished gross sales dipped to $3-under. Class I demand is lighter. Class II, III, and IV calls for are robust to regular. Condensed skim availability is looser. Cream multiples for all Lessons are 1.05-1.33 within the East, 1.14-1.28 within the Midwest, and 1.00-1.25 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs moved decrease on each ends of the Central and East vary and the underside finish of the West vary. Costs for the highest finish of the West vary moved larger. Loads of condensed skim is out there for low/ medium warmth NDM manufacturing. Excessive warmth NDM costs had been unchanged for each ends of the central and east area vary. Within the West, costs are blended. Stakeholders say spot inventories are nicely balanced with demand. Dry buttermilk costs held regular, apart from downward value motion for the underside finish of the Central and East vary. A couple of producers be aware lighter drying schedules as a result of some weaker curiosity from consumers. Dry complete milk costs stayed agency. Inventories are tight. Dry whey costs moved decrease in all areas, apart from upward value motion for the highest finish of the Central area vary. Demand is regular to lighter. Lactose costs moved decrease for the underside finish of the vary. Home demand is considerably lighter. Whey protein focus (WPC) 34% and casein costs held regular. WPC 34% spot gross sales are famous as conserving tempo with manufacturing.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKETS NEWS: The USDA AMS not too long ago awarded funding for 60 grant initiatives via the Natural Market Growth Grant Program. Awards for 10 initiatives had been beforehand introduced in January, bringing the overall variety of initiatives receiving awards to 70 this yr. The Nationwide Natural Program’s Strengthening Natural Enforcement rule’s date was applied on March 19, 2024. The implementation of this rule up to date the USDA’s natural relations offering stronger oversight and enforcement of manufacturing, dealing with, and gross sales of natural agricultural merchandise. Natural dairy advert numbers elevated throughout the week 12 retail dairy advert survey. The vast majority of natural dairy adverts this week had been for milk, making it probably the most marketed natural dairy commodity.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Complete standard dairy commercials elevated by 9 p.c, whereas complete natural dairy adverts elevated by 112 p.c. Standard ice cream in 48–64-ounce containers was probably the most marketed dairy product, with a weighted common marketed value of $3.83, down from $3.87 the week prior. Standard butter in one-pound packages was the second most marketed dairy product, with a weighted common marketed value of $4.32, up from $4.29 the week prior. Standard 8-ounce blocks of cream cheese appeared in 67 p.c extra adverts than final week, with a weighted common marketed value of $2.36, down from $2.60 final week.
