Market analyst Jim Wyckoff stories on world protein markets
3 February 2024
10 minute learn
US cattle stock report impartial in comparison with expectations however underlying information bullish
USDA estimated there have been 87.157 million head of cattle within the U.S. as of Jan. 1, down 1.684 million head (1.9%) from final 12 months. The meat cow herd dropped 716,000 head (2.0%) to twenty-eight.233 million head. The 2023 calf crop was estimated at 33.593 million head, down 847,000 head (2.5%) from the earlier 12 months. The whole cattle herd was the smallest since 1951 and final 12 months’s calf crop was the smallest in 82 years. Whereas the info was impartial in comparison with pre-report expectations, the underlying information was bullish because the U.S. cattle herd contracted additional — and can proceed to take action.
Weekly US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Internet US gross sales of 16,700 MT for 2024 have been primarily for Japan (5,200 MT, together with decreases of 1,100 MT), China (3,300 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (2,500 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (1,400 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), and Taiwan (1,200 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 15,400 MT have been primarily to South Korea (4,200 MT), Japan (4,200 MT), China (2,300 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), and Taiwan (700 MT).
Pork: Internet US gross sales of 42,900 MT for 2024 primarily for Mexico (13,400 MT, together with decreases of 1,300 MT and three,000 MT – late), China (12,600 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Canada (4,200 MT, together with decreases of 700 MT), Japan (3,100 MT, together with decreases of 1,200 MT and 100 MT – late), and Colombia (2,600 MT), have been offset by reductions for Costa Rica (100 MT). Exports of 30,100 MT have been primarily to Mexico (10,700 MT), Japan (3,600 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT, together with 100 MT – late), China (3,000 MT, together with 200 MT – late), and Colombia (2,800 MT, together with 300 MT – late).
China stories human demise from avian influenza
China on Wednesday reported the demise of a 63-year-old lady as a result of an an infection of blended H3N2 and H10N5 avian influenza. The lady from Anhui province died on Dec. 16 because of the severity of the illness. “The outbreak is an episodic cross-species transmission from hen to people,” the Nationwide Illness Management and Prevention Administration stated. The chance of the virus infecting individuals is low, and no human-to-human transmission has occurred, it added.
Assessment of USDA ‘product of USA’ labeling plan continues at OMB
The Nationwide Meat Institute (NMI) has already had a session with the Workplace of Administration and Funds (OMB) on USDA’s closing rule for setting up a voluntary Product of USA label. Their session concerned officers from USDA and the Workplace of the U.S. Commerce Consultant (USTR) and sure centered on points raised by NMI within the feedback they filed throughout the request for public touch upon the proposed rule launched in 2023. A session at present may have Canada detailing their place on the ultimate rule through Edward Farrell, a lawyer with the OFW legislation agency in Washington, DC, who suggested Canadian cattlemen of their problem on the WTO over the U.S. Nation of Origin Labeling program. One other assembly is at present scheduled for Feb. 6 with the Nationwide Turkey Federation. It’s unclear how a lot USDA’s closing rule may have differed from the proposed rule launched in 2023 however a number of U.S. meat trade stakeholders raised issues in regards to the rule and the potential impacts it might have on commerce and different areas.
Bipartisan invoice introduces new labeling guidelines for plant-based and cell-cultured meat merchandise
A bipartisan invoice launched in each the Home and Senate, referred to as the Honest and Correct Ingredient Illustration (FAIR) on Labels Act of 2024, goals to determine new labeling necessities for plant-based and cell-cultured meat different merchandise. The invoice, launched by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) within the Senate and Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.) within the Home, seeks to make sure clear labeling for customers, together with phrases like “imitation” and “cell-cultured” on product labels. It addresses issues about transparency in meals labeling, particularly for merchandise designed to resemble conventional meat and poultry.
The FAIR Labels Act introduces particular definitions for “imitation meat” and “imitation poultry” for plant-based meat alternate options. These definitions would apply to merchandise that resemble meat however don’t include precise meat. The invoice requires using “imitation” or related phrases on labels and mandates a disclaimer stating that these merchandise don’t include meat or poultry.
For cell-cultured meat and poultry merchandise, the invoice establishes definitions and grants the USDA authority over their labeling. It requires using phrases like “cell-cultured” or “lab-grown” on labels to obviously differentiate these merchandise from historically farmed meat.
The invoice has acquired assist from numerous agricultural and livestock commerce teams, who consider it’s going to assist forestall shopper confusion and shield the repute of conventional meat merchandise within the market.
Plant-based meats accounted for two.5% of retail packaged meat gross sales in 2022, in keeping with the Good Meals Institute.
USDA concludes nationwide milk advertising and marketing order pricing listening to
USDA has concluded its Nationwide Federal Milk Advertising and marketing Order pricing system listening to, marking the primary replace to the system regulating minimal milk costs for farmers in practically 20 years. This listening to has highlighted the divisions inside the dairy trade, main some dairy cooperatives to exit a significant dairy commerce group. The following step entails placing the proposed modifications to a vote amongst farmers, probably bringing vital alterations to how dairy farmers are compensated. The listening to occurred over a number of months in Carmel, Indiana, the place numerous stakeholders, together with dairy teams, farmers and dairy processors, testified on 21 completely different proposals. USDA spokesperson Allan Rodriguez talked about the division is at present working by the mandatory steps earlier than the choice is voted on by dairy farmers.
China’s hog herd declines notably
China’s pig herd on the finish of 2023 fell 1.8% from the earlier quarter and 4.1% from a 12 months in the past to 434.22 million head, the ag ministry stated. The sow herd dropped 2.3% from the earlier quarter and 5.7% from final 12 months to 41.42 million head.
USDA sends animal ID plan to OMB
USDA has despatched a closing rule to the Workplace of Administration and Funds (OMB) on updating animal illness traceability laws to require the Animal and Plant Well being Inspection Service (APHIS) to solely acknowledge identification units as official identification for cattle and bison if the units have each visible and digital readability (EID). USDA has focused finalizing the rule in April.
China permits certified pork imports from Russia
China’s customs administration started permitting the import of pork from certified areas of Russia final week. Pork imports from areas of Russia with out African swine fever are actually allowed.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (1/26) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.7600. The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.6230 (+0.0586). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4700 and 40# blocks at $1.5375. The weekly common for barrels is $1.4590 (-0.0023) and blocks, $1.5120 (+0.0295). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2200. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1960 (+0.0091). DRY WHEY: Additional grade dry whey closed at $0.4425. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.4380 (+0.0249).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Retail demand is regular, apart from winter storm exercise negatively impacting demand in some northwestern components of the West area. Meals service demand throughout the nation is blended. Harsh snow and ice storms within the West have lightened purchaser exercise within the area. Meals service demand is reported as rising barely within the East area. Bulk butter demand is regular. Cream hundreds are available. Nevertheless, butter manufacturing is blended all through the nation. Some butter makers within the Pacific Northwest have contended with energy losses and transportation difficulties from harsh winter climate. Some stakeholders observe tight unsalted butter availability. That stated, present salted and unsalted stock ranges are adequate to fulfill most instant purchaser wants. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to eight cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Robust milk volumes proceed to be out there for Class III manufacturing within the East the place plant managers observe regular manufacturing schedules. Cheddar and mozzarella inventories are famous to be comfy. Foodservice demand is increased than in current weeks. Retail cheese demand is regular to stronger. Within the Central area, some cheese vegetation have come again on-line after scheduled downtime. Cheese processors relay spot milk availability has tightened, and costs have been reported above Class III for the primary time since earlier than the winter holidays. Cheese demand is stronger, however on par with this time in earlier years. Foodservice and retail contacts observe American-style cheese orders are stronger than regular for late January. Winter climate interrupted some retail and foodservice cheese calls for in some western states. Spot milk availability is blended as some contacts observe transportation delays. Different contacts observe spot a great deal of milk being supplied under Class III costs. Cheese inventories are available for spot purchasers. Export demand is famous to be regular.
FLUID MILK: Milk manufacturing is trending in seasonal patterns, regular to barely increased week over week, all through the nation. Element ranges, in keeping with East and West contacts, have reached their peak. Milk hundreds can be found for all Lessons. Cheesemakers within the West and Central areas proceed to search out some spot hundreds at under -Class costs, though Midwestern cheesemakers additionally reported spot costs above Class for the primary time this 12 months. Reported Midwestern Class III spot hundreds ranged from $1-under to $1-over Class. Western milk contacts reported Class III spot milk as little as $7-under Class III. Cream is extensively out there. Butter plant managers throughout the nation are fielding plentiful gives on cream. Condensed skim availability is usually regular, as hundreds usually are not tough to search out for processors. F.O.B. cream multiples are 1.00-1.20 within the East, .90-1.25 within the Midwest, and 1.00-1.20 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Various Market Information contacts attended trade occasions this week, and dairy powder market tones, on the entire, are seen as regular to barely bullish transferring additional into the winter months. Low/medium and excessive warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs have been blended within the Central/East areas, whereas regular to barely increased within the West. Condensed skim provides can be found, and low/ medium warmth NDM manufacturing stays the main target of processors within the nation. Dry buttermilk costs have been regular in all areas. Demand stays considerably quiet, though inventories usually are not regarding. Dry entire milk costs held regular, as nicely. Dry whey costs moved increased in most sides this week. Demand for prime protein concentrations, equivalent to whey protein focus 80%, has pushed extra solids into these processing channels, retaining candy whey powder volumes considerably agency. Whey protein focus 34% costs have been regular to increased this week. Lactose costs have been blended. Home demand for each whey protein focus 34% and lactose is considerably hearty within the U.S. Casein costs have been unchanged on regular demand.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: Within the week 4 retail dairy survey, the variety of natural adverts elevated by 37 p.c, after declining in week 3. Essentially the most marketed natural dairy class is milk on this week’s survey, regardless of a decline in advert numbers. Natural cheese and yogurt have been the second and third most marketed commodities discovered on this week’s survey. Natural cottage cheese and bitter cream appeared on this week’s survey, after not showing in week 3. In the meantime, complete adverts declined for 2 dairy commodities this week. Considered one of these, natural ice cream, appeared in final week’s survey, however was not current in any surveyed adverts this week. Natural milk advert numbers declined by 1 p.c this week. Adverts for natural gallons of milk elevated by 6 p.c, whereas adverts for natural half gallons declined by 6 p.c. Regardless of a decline within the complete variety of adverts, natural half gallon milk remained essentially the most marketed natural merchandise within the survey this week. The weighted common marketed value for natural half gallon milk this week was $4.09, down 26 cents from final week. Standard half gallon milk had a weighted common marketed value of $2.21. The natural premium for milk in half gallon containers was $1.88 this week.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Complete standard dairy ads decreased by 15 p.c, whereas complete natural dairy adverts elevated by 37 p.c. Ice cream in 48-64 ounce containers was essentially the most marketed dairy product, with a weighted common marketed value of $4.45, up from $4.27 the week prior. Standard butter in one-pound packages had a weighted common marketed value of $4.80, down from $4.88 the week prior.
