Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff shares protein information from around the globe
22 December 2023
16 minute learn
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Internet US gross sales of 9,700 MT for 2023 have been down 8 p.c from the earlier week, however up 44 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for South Korea (4,200 MT, together with decreases of 900 MT), Japan (2,600 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Canada (600 MT), and China (400 MT, together with decreases of 700 MT), have been offset by reductions for Hong Kong (200 MT). Internet gross sales of 6,400 MT for 2024 have been primarily for Japan (3,500 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), China (800 MT), Hong Kong (300 MT), and Taiwan (300 MT). Exports of 16,900 MT have been up 17 p.c from the earlier week and 20 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to South Korea (4,600 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), China (2,300 MT), Mexico (2,100 MT), and Canada (1,200 MT).
Export Adjustment: Collected exports of beef to unknown locations of 18 MT have been adjusted down 4 MT for week ending October nineteenth, 3 MT for week ending October twenty sixth, 3 MT for week ending November 2nd, 3 MT for week ending November ninth, 4 MT for November twenty third, and 1 MT for week ending December seventh. These shipments have been reported in error.
Pork: Internet US gross sales of 37,500 MT for 2023 have been up 33 p.c from the earlier week and 48 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (15,900 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (7,000 MT, together with decreases of two,400 MT), Canada (3,200 MT, together with decreases of 700 MT), Japan (3,000 MT, together with decreases of 1,200 MT), and China (2,800 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), have been offset by reductions for the Philippines (100 MT), Vietnam (100 MT), and Hong Kong (100 MT). Internet gross sales of 25,500 MT for 2024 have been primarily for China (11,000 MT), Mexico (4,700 MT), South Korea (3,400 MT), Japan (2,600 MT), and Australia (900 MT). Exports of 40,500 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 12 p.c from the earlier week and 26 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (12,500 MT), South Korea (11,900 MT), Japan (3,900 MT), China (3,300 MT), and Canada (2,100 MT).
Extra HPAI finds in Kansas, California, South Dakota
USDA’s Animal and Plant Well being Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in further business operations in a number of states which have already reported circumstances. Circumstances confirmed Dec. 18 included Sonoma County, California (497,700 business desk egg layer birds) and Edmunds County, South Dakota (1,000 birds at a business upland recreation producer). Dec. 19 confirmations introduced by APHIS included Muskegon County, Michigan (47,900 business turkey meat birds); Rice County, Kansas (800,000 business desk egg layer birds); and Sonoma County, California (3,500 business duck meat birds).
USDA world dairy markets and commerce report
Dairy: World Markets and Commerce US Export Values Beneath Strain in FY2024
FY2023 was a difficult 12 months for US dairy exporters, impacted by sluggish financial progress amongst importers and elevated competitors from New Zealand and the EU. Nevertheless, a barely weaker US greenback in 2023 helped cushion losses in value competitiveness. All year long, export values of non-fat dry milk (NDM), cheese, and whey remained lackluster, primarily attributable to weakening demand in China and Southeast Asia. Globally, greater rates of interest impacted discretionary spending, significantly affecting dairy consumption, which isn’t a conventional staple of Asian diets – essentially the most vital progress area for main exporters.
In 2024, US exports are anticipated to face comparable headwinds for a lot of the 12 months. A mix of things has impacted demand in key markets in Asia in 2023 and anticipated to proceed into 2024. In 2023, after the top of COVID lockdowns, governments have been underneath stress to rein in fiscal spending and mood mixture demand to fight excessive stage of inflation. Central banks have raised rates of interest to extend the price of credit score, resulting in slowing non-public enterprise funding for manufacturing exports in markets just like the Philippines and Thailand. The ensuing slowing of gross home product (GDP) and revenue progress has had spillover results on discretionary spending.
Customers have additionally been grappling with excessive meals inflation, substantial forex depreciation towards the US greenback that has additionally contributed to greater imported meals costs, and excessive power, all of which have put a dent in client buying energy. In China, the most important import marketplace for dairy merchandise, surplus uncooked milk manufacturing led to authorities subsidies to stabilize the home processing sector and resulted in decreased demand for imports of complete milk powder (principally from New Zealand) and US NDM. As China doesn’t produce significant quantities of upper worth merchandise like cheese or butter, surplus uncooked milk is bought by dairy processors and transformed into milk powder for storage in accordance with the “Contemporary Milk Buy and Gross sales Contract”.
Forecast declines in China’s swine manufacturing are anticipated to result in much less feed use and subsequently, whey. Massive inventories of skim and complete milk powder will proceed to restrict export alternatives for america as effectively. Yr-over-year value declines for plenty of US dairy merchandise are anticipated to persist early in 2024, pressuring export values. Nevertheless, stronger demand for skim merchandise is anticipated within the latter half of the 12 months as US value competitiveness improves. NDM and whey, pivotal for exports, are forecast to see sustained decrease costs 12 months over 12 months within the first half of 2024, and volumes are anticipated to be weak attributable to comfortable demand from East and Southeast Asia.
The present WASDE initiatives common NDM costs at $1.17 per pound in FY2024, 8 p.c decrease than FY2023 ranges. This decline is predicted to be most pronounced within the first half of FY2024. Cheese costs are anticipated to common $1.71 per pound, down 8 p.c from FY2023. Expectations for less than average progress in volumes of shipments and decrease anticipated costs for dairy commodities by way of a lot of the 12 months point out that complete dairy export values are forecast to contract in FY2024, most intensely within the first 2 quarters. FY2024 is forecast to resemble a lot of the month-to-month information in FY2023, in that indicators of progress in some classes are invariably surmounted by declines in others. Features in export values for cheese and toddler formulation are projected to be greater than offset by declines in skim milk powder, whey, lactose and butter.
Within the European Union, a marginal decline in milk manufacturing is anticipated, with a lower of 200,000 tons bringing the entire to 144.6 million. A modest enchancment in cow productiveness is inadequate to counteract further reductions within the dairy herd. Persistent declines in farmgate milk costs, coupled with persistently excessive manufacturing prices, proceed to exert stress on dairy farmers, significantly in main producing member states akin to Germany, France, Spain, and Poland.
The impression is extra pronounced amongst smaller farms that lack the capability to capitalize on efficiencies of scale or organized negotiating energy with processors to drive competitors for parts of the milk pool. Notably, producers are additionally grappling with adherence to environmental rules. Initiatives such because the Dutch authorities’s nitrogen emissions cap and the Irish authorities’s proposed voluntary fee scheme to incentivize dairy cow slaughter add additional complexity. These components are anticipated to result in additional market consolidation and closures amongst smaller producers. Nevertheless, bigger operators are anticipated to take care of herd numbers, thereby slowing the tempo of herd discount in 2024
Extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infections proceed to extend
Information from USDA’s Animal and Plant Well being Inspection Service (APHIS) as much as Dec. 15 reveals further business websites affected. Since Dec. 11, HPAI has been confirmed in varied places, together with Olmsted County, Minnesota (15,100 business turkey breeder hens); Lake County, South Dakota (76,000 business turkey meat birds); Rice County, Kansas (700,000 business desk egg layers); San Joaquin County (6,000 business duck breeder birds) and Merced County (183,100 business broiler manufacturing birds and 1,358,000 business desk egg layers), California; and Darke County, Ohio (560,000 business desk egg layers).
Prior to now 30 days, a complete of 62 business flocks and 36 yard flocks have been confirmed with HPAI, impacting a complete of 11.08 million birds.
USDA sends two livestock market guidelines to OMB for evaluate
USDA’s Agricultural Advertising and marketing Service has submitted two further proposed guidelines regarding livestock market issues to the Workplace of Administration and Funds (OMB) for evaluate. The primary rule focuses on “Unfair Practices, Undue Preferences, and Hurt to Competitors Beneath the Packers and Stockyards Act.” It goals to revise rules underneath the Packers and Stockyards Act to offer readability relating to violations of the Act. Moreover, it seeks to make clear the Act’s scope to find out actions or conduct that could possibly be in violation of the Act, even with out proof of hurt or seemingly hurt to competitors. USDA’s place is that the Act ought to primarily tackle circumstances involving hurt to competitors.
On the poultry entrance, the second proposed rule offers with “Poultry Grower Fee Methods and Capital Enchancment Methods.” This rule is designed to deal with sure problematic practices inside poultry grower fee programs and capital enchancment packages.
Timing. USDA plans to launch the proposed rule on unfair practices in February and the rule regarding poultry growers in January. These guidelines are a part of the Biden administration’s dedication to addressing points throughout the livestock business.
Railroad bridge closures at US/Mexico border fear Mexican poultry farmers
The closure of railroad bridges at Eagle Cross and El Paso alongside the US/Mexican border has raised considerations amongst Mexican poultry farmers who rely on shipments of feed that sometimes move by way of these bridges. Mexico’s Nationwide Union of Poultry Producers (UNA) revealed that roughly 25% of Mexico’s yellow corn imports from the US and 63% of its soybean paste imports enter Mexico by way of these two border crossings.
UNA has requested the assist of Mexican authorities to intervene and negotiate the reopening of those railway crossings as quickly as potential. They’ve emphasised that the shutdown may probably impression the manufacturing of rooster and eggs in Mexico.
The choice to quickly shut the railroad bridges was made by the US Customs and Border Safety (CBP), citing the necessity to redirect personnel to help the US Border Patrol in dealing with the custody of migrants. CBP has not offered any particular data relating to the period of the bridge closures.
China’s Nov. pork imports down sharply from year-ago
China imported 90,000 MT of pork throughout November, unchanged from the earlier month however 48.1% lower than final 12 months. Throughout the first 11 months of this 12 months, China imported 1.46 MMT of pork, down 6.3% from the identical interval final 12 months.
Hong Kong suspends some US, Canadian poultry meat imports attributable to HPAI
Hong Kong suspended imports of poultry meat and merchandise from areas within the US and Canada affected by extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
EPA proposes new US wastewater guidelines for meat and poultry processing crops
Such guidelines may result in a discount of 100 million kilos of water pollution like nitrogen and phosphorus yearly. This marks the primary replace of effluent limitation pointers for this business in a technology. The proposed pointers purpose to attain the utmost possible discount in air pollution utilizing confirmed expertise, contemplating financial viability. EPA plans to open the proposed rules for public remark after their publication within the Federal Register. As a part of a court docket settlement, the EPA is obligated to finalize the requirements by August 2025, following a lawsuit filed by environmental regulation agency Earthjustice in the course of the Trump administration when the EPA had determined towards updating the rules.
Stabenow blocks invoice to permit complete milk in US faculty lunches
Senate Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) prevented Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) from passing the Entire Milk for Wholesome Children Act by unanimous consent within the Senate. This laws, already authorized by the Home, goals to permit complete milk again into the college lunch program, reversing a ban that has been in place for over a decade. Stabenow’s opposition to the measure is predicated on her perception that it goes towards the Dietary Tips for People. She had signaled her intent to dam the invoice earlier than it was delivered to the Senate flooring. Stabenow emphasised the significance of sustaining faculty meal requirements which are rooted in dietary science, slightly than selling particular meals merchandise. She advised these advocating for the inclusion of complete milk in class meals ought to take part in USDA’s evaluate of the college meal program slightly than having Congress intervene within the course of.
Grass-fed beef isn’t extra climate-friendly than conventional grain-fed meat
That is largely due to the quantity of land wanted for grazing, in keeping with a examine that would impression policymaking to mitigate agriculture emissions. A examine primarily based on evaluations of 100 beef manufacturing operations throughout 16 international locations reveals that claims of low-carbon beef typically overlook a big issue: the carbon alternative price of land use. The analysis, led by Daniel Blaustein-Rejto, director of meals and agriculture on the Breakthrough Institute, examined the carbon footprint of beef manufacturing.
Land use is essential. The examine highlights that to precisely assess the carbon footprint of beef manufacturing, land use impacts should be thought-about. Particularly, the examine in contrast the relative carbon footprint of grass-fed beef, the place cattle eat grass and forage, with grain-fed beef produced in feedlots. It discovered that beef from pasture-finished operations, which rely extra on grazing, produces 20% greater greenhouse gasoline emissions and has a 42% greater carbon footprint than beef from feedlot operations.
This distinction arises primarily within the “ending stage” for cattle, the place pasture-finished cattle proceed to eat hay and grasses till they attain slaughter weight, whereas some cattle in feedlot operations are transitioned to a grain-based weight loss program.
The examine additionally emphasizes that grass-fed and different pasture-finished operations can displace native ecosystems and cut back land accessible for restoration efforts, akin to tree planting. Some mitigation measures to cut back emissions embody improved grazing administration and breeding animals extra proof against illness and warmth.
The findings have implications for coverage methods aimed toward mitigating emissions from beef manufacturing, as beef-related emissions account for a good portion of world greenhouse gasoline emissions, starting from 6% to 14.5% in varied estimates.
Agri Stats: Information-driven meatpacker effectivity raises collusion considerations
Agri Stats, an Indiana-based firm, is thought for its data-driven strategy to help meatpackers in optimizing effectivity and sustaining low costs. They acquire and analyze intensive information to offer insights and suggestions to their purchasers within the meat processing business. Nevertheless, the federal government has raised considerations that the info offered by Agri Stats may probably allow firms to have interaction in collusion. In keeping with a Wall Avenue Journal
profile, the corporate’s shopper record has been substantial, together with as much as 97% of the US rooster business, valued at round $60 billion, and 80% of pork processors. This profile highlights the numerous position Agri Stats performs within the meat business’s operations and pricing methods.
Weekly USDA dairy report
BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.4900. The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.4970 (-0.1755). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4500 and 40# blocks at $1.5200. The weekly common for barrels is $1.5010 (-0.0770) and blocks, $1.5740 (-0.0235). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1600. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1650 (-0.0055). DRY WHEY: Additional grade dry whey closed at $0.3950. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.3940 (-0.0045).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Home retail butter demand is robust to regular within the lead as much as the winter holidays. Cream provides for churning stay blended. Stakeholders within the west and central areas point out spot a great deal of cream are extra accessible. Nevertheless, contacts within the jap area point out spot a great deal of cream for butter churning are tighter than in current weeks. Butter makers anticipate milk clearing to Class IV to extend within the second half of December. Producers report robust to regular retail manufacturing schedules. Some stakeholders point out spot a great deal of unsalted butter are considerably looser. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to eight cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Spot milk demand stays robust within the Japanese states. Plant contacts report sturdy manufacturing schedules with inventories rising week over week. Retail demand is robust forward of finish of 12 months holidays. Contacts notice mozzarella and cheddar calls for are particularly robust. Cheesemakers within the Midwest report ample milk availability, with Class III spot milk costs starting from $4-under to $1-over. Manufacturing schedules stay regular. Demand for cheese barrels has softened. Within the West, cheese processors have shared their inventories are comfy. Spot availability is variable, although, as contractual obligations are being fulfilled earlier than the top of the 12 months. Home cheese costs have change into extra aggressive with worldwide costs, however business sources share export demand has not but picked up in response.
FLUID MILK: Within the East and Central areas, milk manufacturing is trending greater. In some components of the West area, milk manufacturing is strengthening, however in different areas, farm stage milk output is reportedly regular. Contacts within the Central area and within the Northeast report strengthening milk elements as feed high quality stays excessive. Milk calls for are Class dependent and vary from regular to strengthening within the East and West areas. Within the Central area, contacts report spot a great deal of Class III milk are buying and selling from $4 underneath to $1 over. Stakeholders say they anticipate a decline in spot costs for Class III milk earlier than the top of 12 months holidays. Demand for condensed skim is regular within the West, and contacts within the Central area notice condensed skim availability is rising. Cream volumes can be found in all areas. Cream a number of ranges for all Lessons are: 1.07-1.28 within the East, 1.18-1.26 within the Midwest, and 1.05- 1.25 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: The value ranges for low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) moved decrease in all areas this week. Some contacts within the East notice curiosity from spot market contributors has softened considerably in current weeks. Excessive warmth NDM costs moved decrease within the West, however costs held regular within the Central and East areas. Dry buttermilk costs moved greater on the high finish of the ranges in all areas, whereas the underside of the vary within the West slid downwards. Spot availability stays tight. Dry complete milk costs moved greater on the underside finish of the vary, amid robust seasonal demand and tight spot inventories. Value actions for dry whey diversified by area. Bullish markets for greater whey protein concentrates have induced some producers within the Central and West areas to concentrate on these commodities, as a substitute of dry whey manufacturing. Costs for whey protein focus 34% (WPC 34%) moved greater. Contacts notice robust demand for WPC 34% and restricted manufacturing are contributing to lighter warehouse inventories. Lactose costs moved greater on the backside of the vary. Contacts notice regular demand, however robust curiosity for Q1 contracts. Acid and rennet casein costs moved greater on the backside of the ranges this week.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: In comparison with final week, there have been 41 p.c extra advertisements for natural dairy merchandise on this week’s survey. So as, milk, yogurt, cheese, cottage cheese, and bitter cream have been the highest 5 most marketed natural dairy commodities this week. Whole advertisements for all these merchandise elevated in comparison with week 49. The Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) releases month-to-month export information which incorporates export volumes and values for natural milk categorized as HS-10 code 0401201000. Just lately launched information for October 2023 indicated natural milk exports have been 250,984 liters, up 59 p.c from the month prior and up 74 p.c from 2022.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Each standard and natural dairy advertisements elevated this week. Typical dairy advertisements had the bigger enhance at 79 p.c, in comparison with 41 p.c for natural dairy advertisements. Cheese led the best way as essentially the most marketed dairy commodity this week. Ice cream adopted the chief because the second most marketed dairy commodity. When evaluating the package deal sizes for standard ice cream, the 48-64 ounce container measurement was extra closely marketed. Butter and bitter cream, together with yogurt have been effectively represented this week. The weighted common marketed value for standard 1 pound butter packages elevated 6 cents from final week, to $4.30.
DECEMBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES: The milk manufacturing forecast for 2023 is lowered from final month attributable to slower anticipated progress in milk per cow. Manufacturing in 2024 is lowered attributable to decrease milk cow numbers and decreased milk per cow. The fats foundation import forecast for 2023 is raised attributable to greater imports of cheese. Skim-solids imports are lowered attributable to fewer shipments of milk protein merchandise. The fats foundation export forecast is lowered attributable to decrease butter exports. The skim-solids export forecast is raised attributable to greater whey product shipments which greater than offset decrease anticipated nonfat/skim powder. For 2024, the import forecast is raised on a fats foundation, however lowered on a skim-solids foundation. Fats foundation exports are lowered for 2024 on decrease anticipated butter shipments, whereas the next skim-solids foundation forecast displays greater nonfat/skim powder and whey product exports. For 2023, primarily based on current costs, cheese and butter value forecasts are lowered whereas the nonfat dry milk (NDM) value is raised. The whey value is unchanged. The Class III and Class IV value forecasts are each decrease on decrease cheese and butter costs. For 2024, the cheese value forecast is lowered, whereas butter, NDM, and whey costs are raised. The Class III value forecast is lowered due decrease cheese costs. The Class IV value forecast is raised attributable to greater butter and NDM value forecasts.
