At their assembly this 12 months in August in South Africa, the present 5 BRICS member international locations determined to confess six extra international locations on January 1st, 2024. These are Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. With this enlargement, the brand new grouping goals to create a political and financial counterweight to the West. This paper will look at what this implies for the world poultry business.
Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst – The writer is Professor emeritus of the College of Vechta, Germany
Because the grouping has not but given itself a brand new acronym, it’s going to right here be known as BRICS+.
Inhabitants and financial energy of the BRICS+
The deliberate enlargement will improve the inhabitants of the grouping by 414.3 million and convey it to three,677.3 million, which corresponds to 46.0% of the world inhabitants. Of this, China and India alone will account for two.8 billion or 35.7%. As could be seen from Desk 1, China would be the main financial energy, accounting for 17.8% of world worth added alone. It has a share of 60.6% within the gross nationwide product of BRICS+. All different member international locations fall far behind. It may be assumed that China will decisively decide the additional methods of the alliance sooner or later.
There are nice variations by way of worth added per particular person and thus in buying energy. Primarily based on the intensive oil and fuel reserves, the United Arab Emirates and S. Arabia occupy a high place. The hole to the following three international locations, that are nonetheless above the world common, is appreciable. Compared, the worth added per particular person may be very low in India and Ethiopia. They anticipate to learn from the merger by way of financial growth and commerce relations.
Excessive shares within the international manufacturing of poultry meat and eggs
A comparability of the shares of BRICS+ in world manufacturing of poultry meat and eggs with these of the EU (27) and the USA in 2021 exhibits the robust place of the group (Desk 2).
Breaking down the BRICS+ shares by nation (Determine 1), the particular place of China and Brazil in poultry meat manufacturing turns into apparent. Collectively, they accounted for 28.2% of world manufacturing in 2021, greater than twice that of the EU (27) and 11.4% greater than the USA. They accounted for 68.5% of BRICS+ manufacturing quantity. It must be emphasised that S. Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have a excessive demand for poultry meat, produce solely small portions domestically.Â
BRICS+ contributed 38.5% to the worldwide manufacturing of hen meat, crucial poultry product. Once more, China and Brazil held the 2 main positions. Collectively they accounted for twenty-four.1% of world manufacturing, greater than double the EU (27) and seven.0% greater than the USA. They accounted for 62.3% of complete manufacturing within the group. All different international locations have been far behind. Which function the member international locations of BRICS+ performed in world commerce with poultry meat is examined within the subsequent part.
In 2021, BRICS+ contributed 52.0% to the worldwide manufacturing of shell eggs, with China alone accounting for 33.9%. Solely India, Brazil and Russia had appreciable manufacturing volumes. Collectively, the three international locations accounted for 14.5% of world manufacturing, virtually double that of the USA and the EU (27). As a result of shell eggs can’t be frozen, the amount traded is way under that of the USA and the EU (27).
The BRICS+ international locations performed a outstanding function within the manufacturing of duck and goose meat. As could be seen from Desk 3, that is solely because of China’s massive manufacturing volumes. Solely small portions have been produced within the different member international locations. Concerning turkey meat, the contribution to world manufacturing was a lot smaller, with solely Brazil reaching a substantial share of 20.5%. Within the different international locations, solely small portions or no turkey meat have been produced, which is as a result of low per capita consumption.
Giant variations in shares of world commerce in poultry meat and eggs
The shares of BRICS+ international locations in exports and imports of poultry meat and eggs in 2021 confirmed massive variations (Desk 3).
The excessive share in poultry meat exports is especially because of Brazil’s function in hen meat commerce. There, as could be seen from Determine 2, it represented 28.2% of the world exports. The USA, which ranked second in world commerce of this meat kind, was solely barely under the EU’s share (27). Shell eggs have been primarily traded throughout the EU (27). Right here, the USA and the BRICS+ international locations had virtually equal shares. Nevertheless, an in depth evaluation would present that the commerce flows differed considerably.
.
Rooster meat was primarily imported by China, the United Arab Emirates, S. Arabia, South Africa and Russia. Collectively they accounted for twenty-four.0% of world imports. The quantity of egg imports was low for the explanations already talked about. A complete of solely about 211,000 t have been imported by the BRICS+ international locations, of which 93.8% have been accounted for by the United Arab Emirates, Russia and S. Arabia. All different international locations, other than Iran, imported solely very small portions, in some circumstances lower than 1,000 t (Determine 3).Â
Abstract and outlook
The previous evaluation may present that the enlargement of BRICS will result in a fair stronger place of the group on the earth poultry economic system. In 2021, the BRICS+ international locations accounted for greater than half of the world’s egg manufacturing, over 41% of poultry meat and 38.5% of hen meat. The diploma of regional focus throughout the grouping was very excessive. China and Brazil dominated in poultry meat, and China and India in eggs.
The BRICS+ international locations accounted for nearly one-third of world commerce with hen meat in 2021, however this was primarily because of Brazil’s excessive export quantity. The shares of the opposite international locations have been comparatively low, with solely China, Russia and Argentina every accounting for multiple % of world exports. The share of the BRICS+ international locations in international hen meat imports was a lot decrease with 25.1%. China had the highest place right here, adopted by S. Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Russia and Iran.
As a result of shell eggs can’t be frozen, comparatively small portions have been traded. The BRICS+ international locations shared solely 8.0% in international exports and 10.0% of imports. China, Russia and Brazil led in exports, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and S. Arabia in imports. The international locations on the Arabian Peninsula have been engaging markets for each hen meat and shell eggs. Regional focus was additionally very excessive for imports of hen meat and shell eggs. The United Arab Emirates and China accounted for 63.3% of the group’s hen meat imports; the United Arab Emirates and Russia for 81.2% in shell egg imports.
Of their long-term forecasts, the US Division of Agriculture and the OECD-FAO assume that each egg and poultry meat manufacturing will present excessive absolute and relative development charges within the coming decade. Improvement is more likely to be significantly dynamic in rising and growing international locations, that are forecast to account for practically 81% of the rise in manufacturing of shell eggs and 79% of that of poultry meat. Of the projected improve in egg manufacturing from 92.5 million mt to 103 million mt, solely about 2 million mt are anticipated to come back from the industrialized international locations and eight.5 million mt from the rising and growing international locations. In Asia, manufacturing will improve by 7.3 million mt. China and India collectively will account for 4.5 million mt.
World manufacturing of poultry meat is anticipated to extend by 19.7 million mt, in Asia alone by 10 million mt and in Latin America by 4.5 million mt. Manufacturing within the industrialised international locations is anticipated to extend by 4 million mt, and by 15.7 million mt within the rising and growing international locations.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook expects world commerce in poultry meat to extend from 15.7 million mt, the common in 2020-2022, to 16.5 million mt, or by 5.1%. Whereas solely just a little change is anticipated within the commerce quantity of industrialized international locations, a rise from 8.2 million mt to 9.0 million mt is forecast for growing international locations. Latin America and Asia will account for roughly equal shares. Poultry meat imports are predicted to extend by practically a million mt. Of this, growing international locations will account for 720,000 mt. Imports from African international locations will improve by about 500,000 mt, these from Latin American international locations by 200,000 mt. No projections are offered on the event of world egg commerce.
Knowledge sources and supplementary literature
FAO Database https://www.fao.org/faostat/en.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 https://www.oecd.org/publications/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-19991142.htm.
USDA: Agricultural Projections to 2032 https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=105852.
Windhorst, H.-W.: The function of BRICS international locations in international egg manufacturing and commerce. In: Zootecnica Worldwide 37 (2015), no. 6, p. 20-25.
Windhorst, H.-W.: Patterns and dynamics of world egg and poultry meat commerce. Half 1: Egg commerce. In: Zootecnica Worldwide 44 (2022), no. 2, p. 22-28.
Windhorst, H.-W.: Patterns and dynamics of world egg and poultry meat commerce. Half 2: Poultry meat commerce. In: Zootecnica Worldwide 44 (2022), no. 3, p. 24-27.
Windhorst, H.-W.: Patterns and dynamics of world egg and poultry meat commerce. Half 3: Rooster and turkey meat commerce. In: Zootecnica Worldwide 44 (2022), no. 4, p. 36-40.
Windhorst, H.-W.: Patterns of the poultry business within the MEA area: Half 1. Egg manufacturing and commerce. In: Zootecnica Worldwide 44 (2022), no. 7/8, p. 30-33.
Windhorst, H.-W.: The exceptional dynamics of the worldwide poultry business: 50 years in retrospective. Half 1 – International egg manufacturing and commerce. In: Zootecnica Worldwide 45 (2023), no. 6, p. 20-28.
Windhorst, H.-W.: The exceptional dynamics of the worldwide poultry business: 50 years in retrospective. Half 2 – International poultry meat manufacturing. In: Zootecnica Worldwide 45 (2023), no. 7/8, p. 24-33.
Windhorst, H.-W.: The exceptional dynamics of the worldwide poultry business: 50 years in retrospective. Half 3: International poultry meat commerce. In: Zootecnica Worldwide 45 (2023), no. 9, p. 22-31.
