Livestock receipts forecast to proceed rising
20 February 2024
3 minute learn
Agriculture and Agri-Meals Canada has accomplished its farm revenue forecast for 2023 and 2024, with outcomes exhibiting that total Canadian farm revenue is predicted to have reached a brand new document in 2023, in line with a government-issued press launch.
The agriculture sector continued to indicate very sturdy total financial efficiency in 2023, regardless of quite a few challenges, together with droughts in western Canada and different excessive climate occasions, Russia’s persevering with conflict on Ukraine, and different world conflicts. Whereas each farm is exclusive and could have skilled the final yr in another way, this continued progress of total farm revenue reveals that regardless of the uncertainty and volatility of the previous yr, the sector stays resilient.
For 2023, Web Money Earnings (NCI), the primary metric Agriculture and Agri-Meals Canada makes use of to measure farm revenue, is forecast to have elevated 13% to a brand new document of $24.8 billion. Whereas progress in each bills and receipts is forecast to have been way more modest than what was seen in 2021 and 2022, progress in receipts for 2023 remains to be forecast to have outpaced that of bills, leading to a brand new document for NCI.
The biggest driver of this anticipated improve is a forecasted improve in livestock receipts of just about 10%, to $37.3 billion. Cattle receipts noticed spectacular price-driven progress that, mixed with reasonable progress in receipts from the supply-managed sector, greater than offset an anticipated decline in hog receipts. Crop receipts are additionally forecast to have grown 4 per cent to $56.0 billion, as improved grain marketings have largely mitigated the impression of declining costs. Working bills are forecast to have elevated solely 2% to $74.9 billion, effectively under the 20% improve seen in 2022. Whereas some key inputs, reminiscent of labour and curiosity bills, are forecast to have continued rising, others, reminiscent of fertilizer and gasoline bills, are anticipated to have come down.
Comparable outcomes are anticipated for common Web Working Earnings (NOI) per farm, which is forecast to have elevated by 17% in 2023 to $155,000, in comparison with $132,000 in 2022. This improve is 34% above the 2018-2022 common. Common farm household revenue, which incorporates revenue earned off-farm, is forecast to have elevated by 11% to $239,000 in 2023. Will increase in common NOI are anticipated for all farm varieties aside from hog farms and poultry and egg farms.
Looking forward to 2024, NCI is forecast to say no 14% to $21.3 billion, as money receipts are forecast to fall barely with bills modestly rising, though NCI would nonetheless be 28% above the 2018-2022 common. Beneath the idea of a standard manufacturing yr, crop receipts are anticipated to say no 5% as costs proceed to fall. Livestock receipts are forecast to proceed rising, however at a a lot much less aggressive fee of two%, as progress in cattle costs is forecasted to decelerate. Common farm-level and farm household incomes are anticipated to observe the same pattern to the combination measures of revenue.
Statistics Canada will likely be releasing fourth quarter receipts for 2023 on February 29, 2024, and estimates of farm revenue for 2023 on Could 29, 2024. Agriculture and Agri-Meals Canada’s subsequent forecast will construct on these releases and supply an up to date forecast for 2024, in addition to a brand new forecast for 2025.
“Canadian farmers work onerous day-after-day to supply wholesome, nutritious and sustainable meals to folks proper throughout the nation, and around the globe,” stated Lawrence MacAulay, Canada’s minister of agriculture. “The outcomes of the farm revenue forecast present us simply how resilient our sector is, with continued progress of total farm revenue. As Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Meals, I acknowledge the vitally vital function our farmers play in rising the economic system and sustaining our nation, and I’ll proceed to do every thing I can to help them.”
