Industrial compound feed manufacturing within the EU remained secure in 2021. Wanting ahead, the unfold of animal ailments and the persevering with world grain market rally fuelled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is anticipated to cut back compound feed demand in 2022 by 4–5 Mio tons.
EU compound feed manufacturing (EU27) for farmed animals in 2021 is estimated at 150,2 Mio t., a rise of 0.03 % in comparison with 2020, in response to knowledge supplied by FEFAC members. Aside from the pig feed sector, all different sectors managed to stabilize/or barely enhance their manufacturing regardless of the persevering with Covid-19 pandemic, world grain market rally, provide chain disruptions and unfold of animal ailments in 2021.
Following the 2021 EU vital pigmeat state of affairs, going through challenges of diminished meat demand in key export markets, excessive prices for feed grains, the impression of African Swine Fever and considerably elevated 2020 manufacturing, the pig feed manufacturing decreased by -1.5% in 2021.
The EU poultry feed sector managed to extend its manufacturing by 1.1% in comparison with the earlier yr, recovering partially from losses linked to Covid lockdown measures (HORECA) in 2020. Eire, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Finland and Romania loved progress of greater than 5% whereas a lower was reported in Germany, France, Belgium, Sweden, Poland and Lithuania primarily attributable to excessive prices of uncooked supplies (farmers not beginning a brand new cycle/rotation), Avian Influenza and flat or diminished retail costs for eggs impacting the poultry sector.
Cattle feed manufacturing barely elevated by 0.2% in comparison with the earlier yr attributable to the next enhance in manufacturing in Eire, Bulgaria and Austria (+6%) following a extreme drought impacting grass progress.
Market outlook for 2022
Wanting on the market outlook for 2022, the EU pig and poultry sector are anticipated to cut back their actions as a result of excessive price of feed supplies, decrease market demand and increasing Avian Influenza outbreaks in a number of nations. Therefore, FEFAC members’ estimates lower by -4.2% for pig feed and -3% for poultry feed. The cattle feed manufacturing is anticipated to lower by -1.6%. Total, the commercial compound feed manufacturing is estimated to lower by -2.9% (i.e. 4.3 Mio tonnes) in comparison with 2021. Nevertheless, market uncertainties stay very excessive attributable to ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine. The speedy lack of feed maize, sunflower meal and different feed supplies from Ukraine and Russia may solely be partially compensated by elevated feed imports, primarily from the US and Canada. Key logistical challenges are persisting on transfer present grain shares out of Ukraine and can proceed to impression market availability within the new Advertising and marketing 12 months.
Key market drivers which may weigh in in opposition to demand for compound feed in 2022:
– the continued unfold of animal ailments (AI & ASF);
– financial uncertainties primarily linked to conflict within the Ukraine;
– farm-gate costs for animal merchandise beneath prices worth;
– different EU coverage selections (strain on decreasing GHG and different emissions, welfare coverage & deforestation-free provide chains);
– disruptions in provide chain attributable to Covid (restrictions in China impacting export of components and different feed substances).
Supply: FEFAC
