Poultry is essentially the most consumed animal protein within the US
9 August 2024
4 minute learn
US poultry and egg manufacturing is projected to develop steadily by way of 2033, after outbreaks of extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) sharply decreased the US poultry and egg-laying flock in 2022 and 2023. USDA’s annual 10-year projections, also referred to as the US agricultural baseline, present a long-term outlook for main crop and livestock commodities and are based mostly on particular assumptions. For the poultry and egg sector, assumptions embrace no extra outbreaks of animal illness, a continuation of present US and international insurance policies and commerce agreements, regular climate, and particular macroeconomic situations, in keeping with a latest USDA ERS market report.
Poultry is essentially the most consumed animal protein in the USA. Broiler and turkey meat accounted for 46% of all crimson meat and poultry consumption by quantity in 2023, with money receipts of over $50 billion. As well as, the USA is the world’s second largest exporter of hen behind Brazil. In 2023, almost 16% of US broiler manufacturing was exported. Easing costs for home feed, the most costly enter in any animal manufacturing, are anticipated to profit all three most important poultry sectors: broilers, eggs, and turkey. Market costs for broilers and eggs are anticipated to extend reasonably over the projection interval, whereas turkey costs are anticipated to lower barely as home demand weakens.
The egg sector continues to recuperate after avian influenza struck the egg-laying flock, with thousands and thousands of laying hens misplaced to both the illness or to depopulation. Egg manufacturing fell from 9.4 billion dozen in 2019 to a 5-year low of 9.1 billion dozen in 2022. When USDA formulated its agricultural baseline projections in October 2023, extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) instances had been comparatively low, and egg manufacturing had begun to recuperate. In step with the baseline presumption of no additional avian influenza outbreaks, US egg manufacturing was projected to recuperate in 2024 and proceed to increase to a file 10.8 billion dozen by 2033 because the US inhabitants and per capita consumption grew. Projected progress displays ongoing demand for eggs and egg-containing merchandise—one of many least expensive sources of protein. After the finalization of the baseline projections, a brand new cluster of outbreaks in late 2023 and early 2024 affected egg manufacturing. More moderen forecasts for egg manufacturing in 2024 are decrease, reflecting ongoing challenges however nonetheless representing a rise from the earlier yr. USDA economists proceed to observe instances of the illness and recurrently report on modifications in manufacturing.
The turkey sector additionally confronted illness and different challenges over the previous decade. From 2017 to 2022, turkey manufacturing declined 12.7% from 6.0 billion kilos to five.2 billion, the bottom manufacturing stage this century. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic briefly affected the supply of labor for meatpackers and adjusted the patterns of demand for turkey meat. The sector had not totally recovered by 2022, when greater than 9 million turkeys had been depopulated on account of an HPAI outbreak. After seemingly winding down, the outbreak returned for a second wave, changing into the biggest outbreak of HPAI in US historical past by way of whole poultry losses. Shopper demand for turkey has weakened, and manufacturing has been restrained. With the idea that the avian flu’s results had run their course, USDA’s long-term outlook projected turkey manufacturing to develop 14% by 2033 from the depressed ranges in 2022, reaching 6.0 billion kilos. Even so, per capita consumption is anticipated to proceed its downward pattern.
Broiler manufacturing weathered the pandemic and avian influenza challenges of the previous few years with out experiencing the dramatic drops that affected turkey and egg manufacturing. The annual progress in broiler manufacturing remained constructive by way of each the pandemic and the avian influenza outbreak, though the annual progress charge dropped beneath 1% in 2021 and 2023. Broilers are produced primarily within the Southeast United States, which wasn’t as closely impacted by the HPAI outbreak. Broilers additionally usually require solely 7 weeks from hatching to slaughter and are much less inclined to avian influenza than older laying hens and turkeys, that are raised at the very least twice so long as broilers earlier than slaughter. Hen manufacturing is projected to develop from 45.7 billion kilos in 2022 to 52.5 billion kilos in 2033, surpassing earlier data annually, as feed costs retreat from latest highs and the variety of broilers processed continues to pattern upward.
