World animal protein market forecast to develop 0.4%
19 January 2024
3 minute learn
With declines anticipated in pork and beef markets, poultry is predicted to be the fastest-growing protein in a world animal protein market forecast to develop simply 0.4% year-on-year, in keeping with a current Rabobank report. Decrease enter prices, and due to this fact lower-priced rooster, ought to assist stimulate rooster consumption in 2024 and speed up development within the trade.
2024 will likely be a reasonably optimistic yr of recovering development for international poultry trade
The 2024 outlook for the worldwide poultry market is reasonably optimistic, with a forecast of 1.5% to 2% development. Although a decline from the long-term common of two.5% per yr, it marks an indication of restoration in comparison with 2023, when development was just one.1%. Most development is predicted in Southeast Asia, the Center East, and Latin America, however at below-average ranges.
“Producers might want to preserve balancing provide development with comparatively gradual demand development, particularly within the US, Thailand, Indonesia, and extra just lately in China and the EU, which have been fighting oversupply,” mentioned Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst for animal protein at Rabobank.
Though development is recovering, it’s essential for areas to keep up market stability within the nonetheless price-driven, unstable market surroundings.
“Oversupply can considerably influence profitability, as we noticed earlier in 2023 in Brazil, the US, and South Africa,” famous Mulder.
Value-driven markets to problem trade till shopper spending energy improves
Shoppers will stay delicate to costs as a result of weak financial context, and strain to provide reasonably priced merchandise to prospects by way of price-driven channels will persist. On this context, poultry will proceed to profit from downtrading by way of meat kind and product class. However as wages have more and more risen in step with earlier inflation, value-based market alternatives will regularly return as shopper worth inflation lowers.
Nonetheless, price-driven markets will likely be an ongoing problem for producers in 2024, because the trade will nonetheless face comparatively excessive prices and potential volatility. Feed prices will transfer barely decrease, however international geopolitical points just like the Ukraine battle, turmoil within the Center East, and climate dangers might have an effect on feed prices, in addition to oil and gasoline costs.
Furthermore, the quick development in international commerce seen in 2022 and early 2023 has began to gradual. Commerce is not going to be straightforward however will continue to grow, primarily in uncooked rooster meat, and the market will regularly get well on enhancing shopper spending energy in a number of key markets, just like the EU, UK, and US.
Avian influenza the largest wild card and a serious wake-up name
The most important wild card for the outlook in 2024 will likely be avian influenza, which is already impacting manufacturing and commerce from Europe and the US, and the strain is growing. Outbreaks in North America, Europe, and Asia began comparatively early within the Northern Hemisphere winter season, a possible indication that this yr might turn out to be a higher-pressure yr than the 2022/23 winter season.
In North America, Canada, Mexico, and key manufacturing areas within the US have seen circumstances in business farms, primarily in turkeys and layers.
In Europe, there have been circumstances in the important thing manufacturing international locations of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, France, and Hungary. Japan has additionally had its first case.
“These comparatively early outbreaks within the Northern Hemisphere winter season needs to be a serious wake-up name for the trade to maintain biosecurity at its highest stage,” warned Mulder.
On this ongoing price-driven market context with excessive and unstable enter prices and avian influenza dangers, producers ought to deal with optimum effectivity, procurement, and biosecurity, however enhancing spending energy ought to regularly result in enhancing demand for extra premium and value-added merchandise.
