In two papers the writer will analyse the event of poultry over the previous fifty years and doc the exceptional progress of worldwide egg and poultry meat manufacturing in addition to the commerce with these commodities.
Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst – The writer is Prof. emeritus of the College of Vechta and Visiting Professor on the College of Veterinary Medication Hannover, Germany
A private be aware
“In 1970, I began my tutorial profession on the College of Vechta and instantly started to review the dynamics in intensive animal manufacturing at totally different spatial ranges. Whereas my empirical research initially handled Decrease Saxony, specifically the counties of Cloppenburg and Vechta, the main focus quickly widened to EU member states and the USA. The shut contacts with main firms, which produced and marketed gear for intense animal manufacturing, particularly for pig and poultry husbandry, and with globally energetic breeder firms gave me the chance to review international patterns and dynamics.”
Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst
A exceptional temporal and spatial dynamics
Between 1970 and 2020, international egg manufacturing elevated from 19.5 mill. t to 87.1 mill. t or by 347%. Desk 1 reveals that from 1990 on the manufacturing volumes grew considerably quicker than within the earlier twenty years. Between 2010 and 2020 alone, it grew by virtually 23 mill. t. A better have a look at the event at continent degree reveals the extraordinary function, which Asia performed within the booming growth (Desk 1, Determine 1).
To absolutely the progress of 67.6 mill. t within the many years beneath overview, Asia contributed 73.3%, adopted by Central and South America with 13.0%. All different continents fell far behind. The relative progress in Africa with 4.5% was even increased than in Europe and North America. Till 1988, the egg manufacturing quantity in Europe was increased than in Asia, from then on the extraordinary progress in a number of Asian international locations started, as shall be documented in a later a part of the article.
Determine 2 displays the drastic change within the spatial sample of worldwide egg manufacturing. 
In 1970, European and North American international locations contributed 65.1% to the worldwide manufacturing quantity, till 2020, their share fell to 21.8%. In distinction, Asia and Central and South America contributed solely 30.7% in 1970, however reached 74.1% in 2020. The far increased relative progress charge in Central and South America compared to Europe makes it seemingly that Europe might lose its second rank through the present decade.
Appreciable adjustments at nation degree
Over the previous fifty years, the composition and rating of the main egg producing international locations modified significantly (Determine 3). 
Till 1985, the USA ranked in first place earlier than it was changed by China, which within the following years remained the unchallenged primary. A better have a look at the dynamics reveals some exceptional adjustments. Between 1990 and 2020, India climbed from sixth to second place and surpassed the USA. Indonesia, which didn’t belong to the ten main international locations till 2000 climbed to fourth place and elevated its egg manufacturing by 4.5 mill. t since 2000. Whereas in1970 six European international locations (Germany, France, Un. Kingdom, Italy, Spain and Poland) belonged to the highest group, in 2020, solely France was left, rating in tenth place. A exceptional dynamical growth confirmed additionally Brazil, Mexico and since 2010, Turkey. In distinction, Japan fell from third to seventh rank and the previous USSR, quantity two till 1990, confirmed a deep fall after the political and financial collapse. In 2020, the Russian Federation solely ranked as quantity eight.
An in depth have a look at the dynamics at nation degree will present the excessive regional focus in egg manufacturing and the rise or fall of particular international locations.
Determine 4 paperwork the altering shares of the ten main international locations in international egg manufacturing between 1970 and 2020. 
The bottom worth was reached in 1980 with 65.2%, the best in 2020 with 71.2%. Nevertheless, the figures don’t paint a transparent image of the extraordinarily excessive regional focus. In 1970, the 4 main international locations contributed 49.1% to the worldwide manufacturing quantity. In 2000, after the dramatic progress of China’s manufacturing quantity, they shared 55.1%. In 2020, they contributed even 55.5%, a results of the speedy progress of Indonesia’s egg manufacturing.
A primary interim stability might be summarised as follows. International egg manufacturing greater than quadrupled between 1970 and 2020, reaching a quantity of 87.1 mill. t. Parallel to this exceptional improve, a drastic change within the manufacturing centres occurred. Europe and North America misplaced their main positions to Asia and Central and South America, which in 2020 contributed virtually three quarters to the worldwide manufacturing quantity. Through the dynamical growth, the composition and rating of the main international locations modified significantly. Whereas in 1970, the USA and the USSR had been the main egg producing international locations, China and India occupied the primary two ranks in 2020. In 1970, six European international locations belonged to the highest ten group, not counting the USSR. In 2020, just one European nation remained with France in tenth place. This comparability graphically describes the drastic adjustments within the spatial sample of worldwide egg manufacturing.
Egg commerce quantity comparatively small
In distinction to poultry meat, the amount of traded shell eggs is relatively small. Within the many years beneath overview, solely between 1.8% (2000) and a pair of.8% (1980 and 2010) of the manufacturing was exported. The explanations for the low commerce quantity are the truth that shell eggs can’t be frozen und have a comparatively quick shelf life. A lot of the eggs are produced for home consumption. However, exports respectively imports are of a substantial financial significance for a number of international locations. The next evaluation will doc the commerce patterns at continent and nation degree.
Desk 2 supplies an summary of the event of egg exports and imports and the commerce stability at continent degree. 
It’s apparent that Europe dominated egg commerce over the previous fifty years. It was not earlier than 2000 that Asia reached increased volumes in egg exports. In all different continents, egg commerce was solely of minor significance. Europe confirmed a commerce surplus over the entire time-period beneath overview, North America since 1980. Africa and Central and South America had a destructive commerce stability in all many years, Asia except for 2010.
Appreciable fluctuations in egg exports at nation degree
Determine 5 reveals the appreciable fluctuations within the composition and rating of the highest ten exporting international locations. The Netherlands have after a number of years of competitors with Belgium the main egg exporting nation since 1975. 
Belgium, primary till 1974 fell to rank 9 in 2020, China from rank three to rank ten. A number of international locations solely belonged to the highest teams for a short while interval, akin to Denmark, Romania, Hungary, the UK, France, the USSR, Iran, Belarus or Syria. Different international locations had been in a position to attain a steady place among the many main exporting international locations, such because the USA, Germany, Spain and Malaysia. In 1970, Poland performed an vital function as an egg exporting nation as a member of COMECON (Council for Mutual Financial Help), however couldn’t preserve its place after the collapse of the system. It was not earlier than 2010 that after the exceptional growth of the poultry business as an EU member state, Poland turned one of many main egg exporters once more. The same growth occurred in Turkey, which turned the second most vital egg exporting nation in 2011 after years of a rare dynamics in its poultry business.
The regional focus in egg exports was even increased than in manufacturing. Determine 6 paperwork that the focus elevated between 1970 and 1990 after which decreased within the following many years. 
In 1990, the ten prime ranked international locations contributed 89.2% to the worldwide export quantity. In 2010, the bottom worth was reached with 74.5% earlier than it climbed to 78.5% once more in 2020. In 1990, the Netherlands contributed 50.9% to the worldwide egg exports. Till 2020, the nation’s share declined to solely 19.9% regardless of a rise within the export quantity. The rising manufacturing in Turkey, Poland, the USA, Uzbekistan and Malaysia challenges the dominating function of the Netherlands.
Appreciable fluctuations additionally in egg imports at nation degree
The composition and rating of the ten main international locations in egg imports fluctuated additionally significantly (Determine 7) except for Germany. 
Value noting are the adjustments within the rating of a number of EU member states within the many years beneath overview, akin to France, the UK, the Netherlands and Italy. In 1970, France ranked in third place then fell to rank ten in 1980, climbed to rank 5 respectively 4 in 1990 and 2000 earlier than it once more fell to rank 9 in 2020. The same dynamics confirmed the UK. Belgium and Singapore started to import eggs in 1990, in 2020 they ranked as quantity 4 respectively 5. Of explicit curiosity is the Netherlands. Whereas they resided as quantity eight in 1970, they turned the second largest egg importing nation in 2020. That is because of the reality, that Dutch traders purchased respectively constructed massive egg farms in jap Germany after the reunification of the nation. They transferred the eggs, which had been produced in these farms, to the Netherlands both to export or to additional course of them. This switch seems as imports for the Netherlands respectively exports for Germany within the FAO database. Till 1980, the USSR imported eggs from different COMECON international locations, however stopped imports after the collapse of the political and financial system. In 2020, the Russian Federation started to import eggs once more to provide the inhabitants with animal proteins because of the dramatic lower of pig meat manufacturing, which resulted from outbreaks of the African Swine Fever. Due to the warfare, Iraq’s egg business was severely hit in order that imports turned needed to satisfy the home demand. From 2010 on, the nation ranked in second place among the many prime ten importing international locations. When egg manufacturing started to get well, imports decreased from 2020 on. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates and S. Arabia imported massive quantities of eggs for home consumption and for additional exports to different international locations on the Arabian Peninsula.
The regional focus in egg imports reached related values as in exports, it decreased, nonetheless, between 2010 and 2020, a results of the quick progress of imports by Russia and western Asian international locations. Between 1970 and 1990, the primary three main international locations shared over 50% within the international imports with a peak of 55.1% in 1980. Within the following many years, the regional focus was decrease and in 2020, the three prime international locations solely imported 38.3% of the eggs, which had been traded globally (Determine 8). 
Value noting is the altering share of Germany in international egg imports. Between 1970 and 1990, the nation imported between 32.0% and 39.5% of the eggs, which reached the worldwide market. From then on, the share fluctuated between 28.7% in 2010 and solely 17.7% in 2020. From 2010 to 2020, the import quantity fell by 100,000 t regardless of a rise of the per capita consumption. This was attainable due to the appreciable progress of the stock by extra than10 mill. hens in that decade.
Abstract and views
The previous evaluation confirmed the exceptional improve in international egg manufacturing and the drastic spatial shifts. Which had been the decisive improvements respectively steering elements behind the success story?
A primary innovation was the usage of the hybridisation know-how within the breeding of laying hens. It began in 1950 within the USA and was within the late Fifties transferred to Europe. Specialised breeder firms started to market hatching eggs and chicks worldwide. A second innovation was the development of cages with computerized feeding, water provide, egg assortment and manure dealing with. It diminished the required labour enter drastically and allowed a lot bigger flocks. The very environment friendly housing system unfold parallel with the hybrid hen. A 3rd innovation was the event of vaccines in opposition to the Newcastle Illness (1954) and Marek’s Illness (1972). They improved the well being standing of the laying hens and diminished the mortality charges to lower than 5%. An important steering issue was the event of a compound feed with particular components, which improved the diet of the hens. This additionally contributed to the well being of the hens and elevated the laying charge significantly. The mix of those elements made it attainable to provide massive quantities of eggs with a excessive dietary worth to an inexpensive worth for the continuously rising international inhabitants. Value noting is, that related types of the group of egg manufacturing developed worldwide: vertically built-in firms. As no spiritual obstacles prohibited the consumption of eggs, manufacturing and consumption grew worldwide and resulted in a spatial shift of the manufacturing facilities.
Whereas in 1970 European and North American international locations contributed virtually two thirds to the worldwide manufacturing quantity, their share fell to 21.8% in 2020. In distinction, Asia and Central and South America contributed solely 30.7% in 1970, however reached 74.1% in 2020, China and India collectively shared 42.0%. Of the six European international locations, which belonged to the highest ten group in 1970, just one remained in 2020. This graphically describes the drastic change within the international sample of egg manufacturing.
Though the amount of egg commerce solely accounted for a share of lower than three p.c in international egg manufacturing, it reached a substantial financial significance for the main exporting and importing international locations. Europe was the dominating continent in egg commerce over the time-period which is analysed on this paper and it was not earlier than 1990 respectively 2020 that Asia reached the next share in exports and imports. Europe was additionally the one continent with a constructive commerce stability over the previous fifty years. North America confirmed a commerce surplus from 1980 on and Asia solely in recent times.
On the flip of the century, new challenges started to confront the egg business. One is the animal welfare dialogue, which within the EU already led to a prohibition of typical cages from 2012 on and the introduction of recent housing methods, akin to enriched cages, flooring and free-range methods. It can within the coming twenty years additionally scale back the variety of hens saved in typical cages drastically as the event within the USA, Canada and New Zealand present. A second is the specter of the Avian Influenza virus, which has brought on disastrous epidemics since 2015 and clearly change into endemic in lots of international locations. The success of the vaccines in opposition to the Newcastle and Marek’s ailments may present a means out of this existential risk.
Regardless of these challenges, egg manufacturing and the amount of egg commerce will additional improve due to a rising demand in a number of threshold and growing international locations. The spatial sample will stay steady. European and North American international locations will lose shares in manufacturing however Europe will be capable of preserve its main place in egg commerce. Though a number of firms and start-ups have been profitable within the manufacturing and sale of plant-based egg substitutes, they will be unable to achieve shares within the two-digit proportion earlier than 2030.
Information sources and ideas for additional studying
FAO database: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en.
Windhorst, H.-W.: Die Industrialisierung der Agrarwirtschaft (The industrialization of agriculture). Ein Vergleich ablaufender Prozesse in den USA und der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Frankfurt a. M. 1989.
Windhorst, H.-W.: Altering patterns of worldwide egg commerce: Dynamics at continent and nation degree intimately. In: Zootecnica worldwide 41 (2019), no. 11, p. 24-29.
Windhorst, H.-W.: The forgotten continent: Patterns and dynamics of the African egg business: Laying hen stock and egg manufacturing. In: Zootecnica worldwide 42 (2020), no. 9, p. 24-27.
Windhorst, H.-W.: The Champions League of the egg producing international locations. In: Zootecnica worldwide 43 (2021), no. 1, p. 26-29.
Windhorst, H.-W.: The forgotten world: the egg business within the least developed international locations. In: Zootecnica worldwide 43 (2021), no. 2, p. 22-25.
Windhorst, H.-W.: The dynamics of the U. S. egg business between 2010 and 2020. In: Zootecnica worldwide 43 (2021), no. 7/8, p. 22-25.
Windhorst, H.-W.: Patterns and dynamics of the EU poultry business: a standing report. Half 1: Laying hen husbandry, egg manufacturing and egg commerce. In: Zootecnica worldwide 43 (2021), no. 12, p. 22-26.
Windhorst, H.-W.: Patterns and dynamics of worldwide egg and poultry meat commerce. Half 1: Egg commerce. In: Zootecnica worldwide 44 (2022), no. 2, p. 22-28.
Windhorst, H.-W.: A documentation and evaluation of the AI epidemic within the USA in 2022. In: Zootecnica Worldwide 45 (2023), no. 3, p. 8-17.
