Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff stories on protein information from across the globe
22 March 2024
14 minute learn
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Web US gross sales of 11,000 MT for 2024–a marketing-year low–were down 2 p.c from the earlier week and 12 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase have been primarily for South Korea (4,300 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), China (2,100 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Japan (2,000 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Taiwan (700 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (400 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 14,400 MT have been down 10 p.c from the earlier week and 9 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to South Korea (3,900 MT), Japan (3,700 MT), China (2,700 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), and Taiwan (900 MT).
Pork: Web US gross sales of 33,800 MT for 2024 have been up 36 p.c from the earlier week and 10 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase have been primarily for Mexico (9,200 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), Canada (8,900 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), Japan (5,500 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), South Korea (1,900 MT, together with decreases of 700 MT), and Vietnam (1,600 MT). Exports of 32,100 MT have been down 7 p.c from the earlier week and 6 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (11,200 MT), South Korea (5,000 MT), Japan (4,700 MT), China (3,000 MT), and Canada (1,900 MT).
USDA report on Australian livestock sector
Australian beef provide is forecast to develop after reaching the top of the herd rebuild interval. This follows a multi-year drought from 2017 to 2019 which resulted in a big decline within the nationwide cattle herd. The marked slowdown within the development of the nationwide herd is anticipated to be pushed by a better feminine slaughter in 2024, notably with a younger breeder age profile lowering breeder substitute charges within the quick time period. The elevated provide of cattle for slaughter in 2024 is forecast to spice up dwell cattle and beef exports. Stay export volumes are set for a 36 p.c enhance in 2024, albeit from a modest degree in 2023.
With a higher provide of livestock, after reaching the top of the herd rebuild part, together with reasonable dwell export cattle costs, dwell cattle exports are set for a giant enhance in 2024. With the expansion within the provide of beef cattle for 2024, beef exports are anticipated to succeed in the fourth highest on file. The three extra appreciable previous export outcomes are related to cattle liquidation resulting from drought, and as such, the 2024 forecast, if realized, could be a considerable milestone for the Australian beef business. The enhance in beef exports correlates with the anticipated decline in beef manufacturing in the USA because the business begins to enter its herd rebuild part in 2024. The anticipated rise in Australian beef exports helps a probable rise in demand for beef imports by the USA, and creates a chance to regain the market share it misplaced lately in the course of the herd rebuild to its key markets, China, Japan, and South Korea.
The Australian pork business is forecast to proceed its momentum of rising manufacturing in 2024. The prospect of softening feed grain costs throughout 2024, together with agency pork costs, is anticipated to encourage an extra manufacturing enhance. A lot of the elevated manufacturing is forecast to spice up home consumption, whereas imports and exports are anticipated to stay comparatively flat in 2024. The residing value pressures skilled in Australia over latest years present indicators of moderating after wage development matched a declining inflation charge on the finish of 2023. With this, the per capita consumption of pork is anticipated to stay secure, and the expansion in general consumption is pushed by the rising Australian inhabitants
US money cattle costs nearing file excessive
Money cattle averaged $187.47 final week, up $2.35 from the earlier week and the second highest ever behind $188.75 for the week ended June 9, 2023. Whereas packers bought a powerful 83,000 head final week, together with 16,000 head “with time,” most money sources count on regular/firmer costs once more this week. However with USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report out Friday afternoon, money negotiations might be sluggish to develop and lively commerce isn’t seemingly till late within the week.
USDA: Spain’s meals processing business report
In 2023, Spain imported $2.2 billion value of agricultural, seafood and forest merchandise from the USA, up 3 p.c in comparison with the earlier yr. Although inflation charges declined in 2023 as in comparison with the file highs registered in 2022, they remained increased in comparison with pre-pandemic ranges. The excessive power value of uncooked supplies and labor, in addition to the results of the drought, have elevated the inflationary scenario with repercussions for the productiveness of firms and their margins, in addition to for family consumption. Regardless of the financial and political uncertainties, Spain’s meals and beverage sector continues to indicate a continuing and constructive efficiency. With one of the aggressive meals processing industries in Europe, Spain’s demand for substances continues to extend, in addition to its demand for distilled spirits, beef and beef merchandise, seafood, pulses, and tree nuts.
China’s pork imports stoop to start out 2024
China imported 160,000 MT of pork in the course of the first two months of this yr, down 56.7% from the identical interval final yr. The sharp drop in imports comes as China’s pork manufacturing reached the very best degree since 2014 final yr.
‘Beef rice’ the subsequent problem for beef
South Korean researchers have grown beef cells in rice grains in what they are saying is a serious step in the direction of attaining a sustainable, reasonably priced and environmentally pleasant supply of protein that might exchange farmed cattle for meat. “Beef rice” makes use of grain particles as the bottom for cultivating animal muscle and fats cells. Within the analysis, rice grains have been handled with enzymes to create an optimum surroundings for cell development, then infused with bovine cells which might be cultivated to realize the ultimate hybrid product, which resembles a pinkish grain of rice.
Restoration continues for US egg layer flocks affected by HPAI
The restoration from extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in egg layer flocks is progressing as two main business egg sector mega-flock farms have been launched from quarantine this week. These farms, positioned in Hardin County, Ohio (2.6 million head), and Merced County, California (1.4 million head), have been among the many final remaining below quarantine. At the moment, just one small business egg layer operation in Dallas County, Missouri (20,000 head), stays below quarantine. In complete, the HPAI outbreak that started within the fall of 2023 affected flocks totaling 12.9 million birds, together with a further 2.8 million egg layer pullets.
USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: March 2024
Anticipated p.c modifications in 2024 purple meat, poultry, and dairy exports in contrast with 2023 U.S. export forecasts for purple meat, poultry, and dairy for 2024 in comparison with precise export information from 2023 are introduced under in a percent-change format.
In 2024, beef exports are anticipated to be about 8.3 p.c decrease than these of 2023 resulting from decrease 2024 beef manufacturing from tightening cattle provides, in addition to from harder international competitors from such beef exporting international locations as Australia. Pork exports are forecast to extend virtually 4.6 p.c over 2023 resulting from increased home manufacturing and fewer international competitors from the European Union. Broiler exports in 2024 are anticipated to say no about 1.4 p.c in contrast with final yr, resulting from increased home costs and weak demand from China. Turkey is anticipated to be competitively priced in 2024, with exports forecast to be up 6.4 p.c in contrast with 2023. In contrast with 2023, dairy exports on a skim-solids milk-equivalent foundation ought to enhance barely this yr—about 0.2 p.c. Comparatively sturdy home demand for dairy merchandise and restricted development in milk manufacturing will seemingly restrict export development.
Abstract
Beef/Cattle: Based mostly on slaughter information by means of early March 2024, the projection for cow slaughter is raised within the first half of the yr and fed cattle marketings are shifted out of the primary quarter and into the outlying quarters at a extra fast tempo. Consequently, the forecast is raised by 140 million kilos to 26.325 billion kilos. Cattle costs are raised on agency demand and up to date worth information. The forecast for beef imports within the first quarter is raised 50 million kilos to 1.200 billion kilos. Projections for beef exports are unchanged from final month.
Dairy: The forecasts for dairy herd dimension, milk per cow, and complete milk manufacturing in 2024 have been lowered relative to the final month’s forecast to 9.335 million head, 24,345 kilos, and 227.3 billion kilos, respectively. With expectations of agency home demand and based mostly on latest commerce information, the 2024 dairy import forecasts have been revised upward, whereas U.S. dairy export forecasts have been revised downward. The 2024 common worth forecasts for butter and Cheddar cheese have been revised upward, whereas the value forecasts for dry whey and nonfat dry milk have been revised downward. The 2024 forecast for the all-milk worth has been elevated to $21.25 per hundredweight, $0.30 increased than final month’s forecast.
Pork/Hogs: The primary-quarter business pork manufacturing is raised 30 million kilos to 7.2 billion kilos on higher-than-expected February manufacturing. Complete 2024 business pork manufacturing is anticipated to be 27.9 billion kilos, up 2.2 p.c from a yr in the past. Stay equal costs of 51-52 p.c lean hogs are forecast to common about $61 per cwt, 3.7 p.c above costs in 2023. Pork exports for 2024 are raised 50 million kilos on sturdy demand from main importing international locations and weakening competitiveness of EU pork resulting from decrease manufacturing and better costs. Complete 2024 pork exports are anticipated to be 7.1 billion kilos, 4.6 p.c above year-ago shipments.
Poultry/Eggs: This month, projected broiler manufacturing for 2024 is elevated on widening margins between feed prices and wholesale costs. Projected broiler costs are unchanged, however exports are adjusted down on a extra aggressive worldwide market. Egg manufacturing is adjusted down within the first quarter of 2024 on a smaller laying flock. Egg costs are adjusted down on latest information, and projected imports and exports for eggs and egg merchandise are unchanged from final month. Projected turkey manufacturing is adjusted down within the first half of 2024 on latest placement information, and projected exports are adjusted up barely on latest commerce information. Turkey costs are adjusted up within the first quarter on latest worth information.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (3/15) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.8225 The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.8290 (+$0.0175). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4425 and 40# blocks at $1.4700. The weekly common for barrels is $1.4370, (-$0.1490) and blocks, $1.4495 (-$0.0425). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1625. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1650 (-$0.0020). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.4450. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.4300 (+$0.0160).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Retail demand is robust to regular throughout the nation. Nonetheless, demand to safe masses for upcoming spring holidays differ. For the West, contacts be aware earlier spring holidays are encouraging extra constant Q1 exercise. For the Central, contacts be aware buyer curiosity has been slower to choose up forward of the spring vacation season. Some stakeholders say meals service is weakening within the West area. Some distributors point out shopping for curiosity is stronger from Canadian purchasers. Cream stays available for a lot of the nation. Butter makers are working sturdy to regular manufacturing schedules. Nonetheless, tight unsalted spot load availability by means of Q2 is famous by some producers. Bulk butter overages vary from 3 to 12 cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Farm degree milk manufacturing continues to develop within the East area. Contacts share Class III spot milk demand is rising as spring holidays inch nearer. Contacts share cheese inventories are ample. Barrel demand has dropped, and the block/barrel inversion on business money exchanges resolved because of this. Retail demand is regular to stronger. Demand for cheese within the Central area is rising. Contacts recommend elevated demand is because of each bearish cheese costs in addition to seasonal vacation demand. Milk availability is rising, and cheese manufacturing schedules are regular. Spot milk costs vary from $3.50-under to $.50-over Class III. Cheese inventories are famous to be typically out there. Retail demand within the west is famous to be weaker to trending flat. Class III milk is available for cheesemakers within the area. Processors are working regular manufacturing schedules, and inventories are famous to be ample.
FLUID MILK: All through a lot of the nation, milk manufacturing is robust or strengthening. Within the South Central portion of the Midwest, contacts notes milk manufacturing has been below stress resulting from air high quality issues. Academic establishments getting ready for spring break have contributed to lighter Class I demand to various degress in every area. Contacts within the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast report sturdy demand for Class II milk as spring attracts close to. Contacts within the Midwest relayed spot milk buying and selling at related costs to final week, with costs typically starting from $3.50-under to $0.50-over Class, however some have relayed provides as little as $6 below Class III. Condensed skim milk is turning into extra out there within the East and West, and provides are ample within the Midwest. Cream volumes can be found in all three areas. Cream a number of ranges for all Courses are: 1.05 – 1.27 within the East, 1.14 – 1.27 within the Midwest, and 1.00 – 1.21 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Costs for low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) moved increased on the backside of the vary within the Central and East areas, whereas the vary contracted within the West. Contacts within the Central and East areas be aware elevated curiosity from purchases in Mexico, however say these calls for are being met by processors within the West. Excessive warmth NDM costs moved decrease within the West, as spot inventories stay out there for buying. Dry buttermilk costs held regular within the Central and East areas however moved decrease on the high quality within the West. Dry buttermilk demand is reasonable within the Central and East areas and is reasonable to mild within the West. Dry entire milk worth moved increased throughout the vary this week, amid regular demand, tightening inventories, and restricted manufacturing. Costs for dry whey held regular within the West, declined within the East, and narrowed within the Central area this week. Contacts within the East report softening demand and rising spot inventories. Animal feed whey costs have held regular this week, as contacts have reported slower markets than edible whey in latest weeks. Costs for whey protein focus 34% held regular this week. Contacts be aware demand is softening however say inventories stay considerably tight. The worth vary for lactose shifted increased this week, amid an uptick in export demand. Acid and rennet casein costs have been unchanged this week.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKETS NEWS
WESTERN EUROPEAN OVERVIEW: Western European milk manufacturing has, usually, continued to development seasonally upwards. Nonetheless, less-than[1]favorable climate circumstances have slowed the rise in some international locations. Business analysts count on European milk manufacturing to be at or barely under earlier yr manufacturing ranges for the yr of 2024. With out appreciable development anticipated for European milk manufacturing, nor important growth of dairy market demand, market observers count on some stability in milk pay costs at the least for the early a part of the yr.
EASTERN EUROPEAN OVERVIEW: As Japanese European milk manufacturing seasonally will increase, market analysts are finding out the longer-term well being of the dairy business in some international locations. With higher milk availability, Polish milk costs ranged between 41 to 52 euros per 100kg in 2023. The analysts are involved concerning the potential for elevated manufacturing prices for dairy producers as prices for power, labor, and logistics stay excessive.
OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: The Meals and Agricultural Group (FAO) of the United Nations launched the February Dairy Value Index which was 120.0 factors, up 1.1 p.c from January. That is down 13.4 p.c from February 2023 Dairy Australia lately launched the Scenario and Outlook report for March 2024. Within the report the group acknowledged they’re now forecasting development in Australian milk manufacturing in the course of the 2023/2024 season, in comparison with the prior season. January export and import information from Australia have been lately launched, illustrating a 17.1 p.c enhance in export dairy volumes in the course of the month, in comparison with January 2023.
NEW ZEALAND: At GDT occasion 351 the general index noticed the biggest drop since August of 2023, with milk powders main the decline in downward momentum in the course of the occasion. A bunch in New Zealand which forecasts dairy costs lowered the forecasted milk worth following GDT occasion 351. This group cited the decline in milk powder costs throughout the latest GDT occasion as contributing to the decreased forecast in costs. The New Zealand toddler system sector is in search of new markets, as their important export market, China, is rising home manufacturing of toddler system.
SOUTH AMERICA: Milk manufacturing and milk output expectations have reportedly taken a bullish flip previously few weeks, much more bullish previously ten days. Climate has been cooperative to dairy farmers in Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil, in accordance with contacts in these three international locations. Commodity markets have quieted some within the area. Brazil, the area’s largest importer, has slowed its intakes of dairy commodities from neighboring companions, in accordance with merchants in these international locations.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Standard dairy adverts elevated 7 p.c, and natural dairy adverts decreased 62 p.c this week. Cheese completed forward of ice cream as probably the most marketed dairy commodity. Standard 6-8 ounce packages of shredded, block, and sliced cheese have weighted common marketed costs of $2.41, $2.45, and $2.51, respectively. Half gallon containers of typical milk had a weighted common marketed worth of $1.78. Half gallon containers of natural milk had a weighted common marketed worth of $4.92. This represents an natural premium of $3.14.
