Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reviews on international protein information
4 October 2024
12 minute learn
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Web gross sales of twenty-two,500 MT for 2024 had been up noticeably from the earlier week and up 68 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase had been primarily for South Korea (7,900 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), China (6,200 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (2,800 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Japan (2,600 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 17,700 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 42 p.c from the earlier week and 28 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to South Korea (4,100 MT), Japan (4,000 MT), China (2,900 MT), Mexico (1,800 MT), and Taiwan (1,400 MT).
Pork: Web gross sales of 43,400 MT for 2024 had been up 55 p.c from the earlier week and 61 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (24,000 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), China (7,900 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Canada (2,900 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (2,000 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), and Japan (1,500 MT, together with decreases of 1,200 MT), had been offset by reductions for Australia (300 MT). Exports of 25,900 MT had been down 7 p.c from the earlier week and eight p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to Mexico (10,900 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), China (2,600 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), and Canada (1,600 MT).
Iowa AG leads 22-state coalition to problem Massachusetts pork legislation in enchantment
lowa Lawyer Normal Brenna Chicken led a coalition of twenty-two states in submitting an amicus temporary to help an enchantment towards a district courtroom ruling that upheld Massachusetts’ Query 3 (Q3) legislation. Query 3 is a Massachusetts legislation authorized by voters in 2016 that units minimal dimension necessities for farm animal containment. Much like California’s Proposition 12, Q3 prohibits the sale of pork from hogs born to sows housed in pens that don’t adjust to Massachusetts’ requirements. Nonetheless, Q3 goes a step additional by additionally banning the transportation of non-compliant pork by means of Massachusetts. The coalition of states argues a number of factors towards Q3: 1) They contend Massachusetts is overstepping its authority by successfully regulating farming practices in different states; 2) The attorneys basic declare Q3 poses “crippling prices” for farmers and will result in “skyrocketing costs” for shoppers; 3) The ban on transporting non-compliant pork by means of Massachusetts is seen as a possible disruption to interstate commerce; 4) Chicken argues that “Massachusetts doesn’t get to inform Iowans the way to elevate their pork.”
China’s sow herd contracts
China’s sow herd stood at 40.36 million head on the finish of August, down 4.8% from a 12 months earlier, based on the ag ministry. The sow herd was modestly smaller than the 40.41 million head on the finish of July.
A number of elements look like driving this contraction in China’s sow herd:
• Low costs: Swine and pork costs have been low, inflicting losses for producers and resulting in herd liquidation.
• Illness points: Lingering animal illnesses, together with African swine fever (ASF), have continued to have an effect on the sector, notably in North China.
• Market oversupply: The aggressive enlargement of China’s swine herd in 2020-2021 led to manufacturing exceeding market demand.
• Producer exits: Extra small- and medium-sized producers have exited the market because of monetary challenges and issue acquiring loans.
The contraction within the sow herd is a part of bigger shifts in China’s pork business:
• Shift to large-scale manufacturing: The share of large-scale swine producers versus small- to mid-sized producers is rising considerably.
• Improved effectivity: With fewer inefficient sows, the variety of piglets weaned per sow per 12 months has improved.
• Manufacturing forecast: Regardless of the sow herd decline, China continues to be anticipated to provide 695 million head of swine in 2024, although this represents a 3% year-on-year decline.
FDA chief warns of fowl flu pandemic threat, updates on meals labeling efforts
FDA Commissioner Robert Califf raised issues about the specter of avian influenza, highlighting the numerous variety of U.S. dairy cattle contaminated. He warned {that a} mutation permitting the virus to contaminate people may set off the subsequent pandemic. Whereas present containment measures are targeted on farms, Califf emphasised the necessity for sturdy surveillance techniques.
In the meantime, he expressed optimism about finalizing new definitions for “wholesome” meals labels and progressing with front-of-pack labeling initiatives, which he believes will drive business change.
USDA pig report bearish
USDA’s newest Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the Sept. 1 U.S. hog herd at 76.480 million head, up 347,000 head (0.5%). The breeding herd declined 135,000 head (2.2%) to six.044 million head. The market hog stock elevated 483,000 head (0.7%). The summer time pig crop declined 265,000 head (0.8%) from final 12 months to 35.030 million head, as a 1.7% drop in sow farrowings greater than offset a 0.9% enhance within the variety of pigs per litter. The report information was largely impartial in comparison with pre-report expectations, except for anticipated near-term market hog inventories.
Value-supportive frozen US meat shares information
USDA’s newest Chilly Storage Report confirmed beef shares declined contra-seasonally throughout August, whereas pork shares rose lower than common. Each suggest meat demand greater than stored tempo with provides final month. Beef shares totaled 395.2 million lbs. on the finish of August, down 7.4 million lbs. from July, whereas the five-year common was a 5.1-million-lb. enhance for the month. Pork shares totaled 453.6 million lbs., up 175,000 lbs.
China taking motion to help its struggling cattle farmers because of an oversupply of beef and dairy merchandise
The state of affairs has led to falling costs. The Ministry of Agriculture (MARA) and different businesses have launched measures to stabilize the meat and dairy industries. These embody increasing manufacturing, lowering feed prices, providing credit score to key farms, and investing in dairy processing. They’re additionally encouraging native governments to difficulty client coupons to spice up milk demand. Regardless of the challenges, no new subsidies or reserve purchases had been introduced, avoiding incentives for overproduction. The market reacted positively, with dairy firm shares surging. Beijing’s focus stays on meals safety fairly than business earnings, and additional intervention may happen if farmers proceed culling herds.
FDA advances analysis to make sure dairy security amid H5N1 outbreak in dairy cattle
The FDA is updating its efforts to safeguard dairy merchandise throughout the Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) outbreak in dairy cattle. Collaborating with educational and federal companions, FDA is conducting analysis on inactivation strategies for H5N1 in fluid milk and cheese manufacturing. Key initiatives embody thermal and viral inactivation research, virus viability testing, and exploring genome-edited chickens to cut back avian virus susceptibility. FDA reassured the general public that the business milk provide stays secure, with ongoing sampling and testing. Additional updates are anticipated within the coming months.
Canada: Livestock and Merchandise Annual
USDA reviews the Canadian cattle herd is forecast to maintain the long-term pattern of contraction to start 2025 however will start to stabilize by 12 months’s finish on improved feed pricing and availability. A smaller calf crop might be produced primarily based on 2024 breeding inventory however heifer retention ought to enhance if feed circumstances proceed to stay secure or enhance. Increased heifer retention coupled with a smaller calf crop will see lowered beef manufacturing and slaughter in 2025. As a p.c of manufacturing, Canadian beef exports are forecast to stay robust whereas imports are forecast to melt on weakened client demand. The Canadian swine herd can also be forecast to stay comparatively secure in 2025. Contraction in Jap Canada might be offset by progress in Western Canada. Slaughter is forecast at one p.c above 2024 with elevated utilization and small enlargement in Western Canada. Imports will lag 2024 as home consumption continues to wrestle.
Canada: Poultry and Merchandise Annual
USDA says Canadian rooster meat manufacturing is forecast to indicate a modest 2 p.c progress in 2025, primarily based on a secure demand, and contemplating elevated imports, particularly beneath the Complete and Progressive Settlement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) tariff fee quota (TRQ). The general 2025 import TRQ volumes will strategy 121,000 metric tons, with the USA anticipated to take care of greater than 80 p.c share of complete Canadian rooster meat imports. In 2024, as the one nation making the most of the CPTPP poultry TRQ, Chile emerged as a big provider, and is predicted to realize extra market share in 2025.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (9/27) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.7325. The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.8445 (0.1760). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $2.2975 and 40# blocks at $2.1100. The weekly common for barrels is $2.4520 (-0.1235) and blocks $2.1640 (-0.1030). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3575. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.3725 (-0.0120). DRY WHEY: Additional grade dry whey closed at $0.5975. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.5935 (+0.0025).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Retail and meals service butter demand is regular within the East. For the Central area, butter demand is stronger. Within the West area, salted butter demand is regular, whereas bulk butter demand is lighter. Cream volumes are broadly obtainable all through many of the nation. Some plant downtime within the Midwest is famous as contributing to extra considerable cream availability. Butter manufacturing varies from regular to robust throughout the nation. Churns are constructing shares forward of This fall upkeep initiatives and vacation interval calls for but to come back. Bulk butter overages vary from minus 5 cents to 10 cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing stays combined all through the nation. Within the East, restricted milk availability has tempered cheese manufacturing schedules. Contacts within the area say present cheese worth factors have dissuaded some prospects, and demand is quiet. Cheesemakers within the Central area proceed to notice prolonged plant downtime. Whereas milk availability stays tight, plant downtime has freed up some milk volumes to cheesemakers. Spot milk costs ranged from $1.50 under Class to $3.50 above Class. Cheese demand has slowed within the area. Within the West, cheese manufacturing ranges from regular to stronger. Mozzarella demand is reportedly robust. Total, spot cheese inventories, specifically for barrel cheeses, stay tight.
FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Farms throughout the USA are seeing diverse volumes of milk manufacturing. The NASS August Milk Manufacturing report was launched final week and listed complete milk manufacturing within the 24 main states for August was up 0.1 p.c from August 2023, however down barely from the revised July 2024 milk manufacturing complete. East area milk producers are seeing regular to lighter milk manufacturing. The Central area is seeing usually stronger output volumes general. Regular to stronger fluid numbers are additionally being reported throughout many of the West, however Utah processors are reporting tight milk volumes. All areas are experiencing robust Class I calls for for seasonal bottling wants. Milk demand from Class II and III is combined within the East with stronger demand within the Northeast and lighter demand within the Mid-Atlantic area. Calls for for all Lessons are diverse within the West. Processing downtime within the Central area is an element as some areas have seen will increase within the availability of spot milk in current weeks. Spot milk costs within the area have been reported from $1.50 beneath Class III to $3.50 over Class III. Cream is available throughout the nation. The All-Class cream multiples vary contracted over many of the nation this week. Some processors have reported turning away spot cream presents as their storage is full. Condensed skim milk demand and availability are regular within the West area. Extra spot a great deal of condensed skim have gotten obtainable within the East. Cream multiples for all Lessons are 1.28-1.44 within the East; 1.20-1.34 within the Midwest; and 1.10-1.27 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs had been regular within the West, whereas regular to larger within the Central and East areas. NDM markets are agency, as not too long ago produced shares are shifting rapidly. Dry buttermilk costs had been larger within the West, whereas regular to larger within the Central and East. Home demand has perked up in current weeks. Dry complete milk costs had been decrease to regular. Dry whey costs had been combined. The Central vary dipped barely on the low finish, whereas East costs moved larger, and West costs had been static. Provides are usually considered as tight. Whey protein focus 34% costs maintained bullish momentum this week in any respect sides. Lactose costs had been regular, as provides range primarily based on mesh dimension. Acid and rennet casein costs had been unchanged throughout the last buying and selling week of the quarter.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: WESTERN EUROPE: Milk manufacturing in elements of West Europe continues to path off seasonally. Nonetheless, weekly milk collections range relying on location. In response to business assets, current weekly milk collections have been under these of the earlier 12 months inside Germany however above the earlier 12 months in France. That mentioned, business contacts recommend the milk provide is tight. Milk volumes and milk part ranges that aren’t assembly expectations and the unfold of bluetongue illness have created uncertainties about milk provides over the subsequent few months. Current information reviews state that new instances of bluetongue have been recognized in a number of cattle herds in Sweden and Austria, drastically increasing the vary of the illness from the unique pockets in north-central Europe.
EASTERN EUROPE: Whereas milk output is seasonally declining throughout East Europe, and milk collections in July 2024 had been largely under these of July 2023, Poland milk collections are reported to have elevated 2.7 p.c in August in comparison with August 2023. In response to CLAL information made obtainable to USDA, amongst a few of the high East EU milk producers, the year-to-date milk deliveries and share adjustments from January -July 2023 are Poland, 8,064,000 MT, +4.4 p.c; Czech Republic, 1,964,000 MT, +2.9 p.c; and Hungary, 1,031,000 MT, +4.3 p.c.
OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: The August 2024 Manufacturing Inputs Monitor from Dairy Australia said August was the warmest on report within the nation and elements of the Queensland coast had probably the most rain on report. Western Australia had above common rainfall in August, offering some aid after dry circumstances had been prevalent in current months. Drier than regular circumstances persevered in Western Australia throughout August. This continues to have an effect on demand for supplementary feed, holding costs for hay elevated. Costs for cull cows elevated in August, because of robust demand from the U.S. NEW ZEALAND: Milk manufacturing information from New Zealand for August 2024 confirmed complete manufacturing was up on a tonnage foundation in comparison with a 12 months earlier. Throughout August 2024, the whole kg of milk solids elevated from the earlier 12 months. From the beginning of the manufacturing season in June 2024 by means of August 2024 milk manufacturing on a tonnage foundation is up in comparison with the identical time interval a 12 months in the past, and milk strong manufacturing is up from final 12 months. SOUTH AMERICA: Milk output in South America, at or nearing peak season, is beneath pressure based on each contacts and reviews. Winter heat and dryness within the main continental dairy areas have affected output. Contacts are hopeful that spring rain will add come quickly, however forecasts are largely dry and comparatively heat near-term. Presently in a impartial climate sample, likelihood is that La Nina will return this spring. La Nina patterns traditionally manifest in dry/ drought circumstances in Argentina and elements of Brazil. Wildfires are and have been an ongoing situation within the Mato Grasso, amongst elsewhere in Brazil.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: The variety of typical and natural dairy adverts within the US elevated throughout the week 39 retail advert survey. Probably the most marketed typical dairy commodity was cheese, as the whole variety of adverts elevated from final week. Whole adverts for natural milk, probably the most marketed natural dairy product this week, elevated from the week 38 survey. Whereas complete typical cheese adverts elevated this week, the variety of natural cheese adverts declined. The variety of adverts for typical half gallon milk declined in week 39. In the meantime, natural half gallon milk advert totals elevated from the prior week. Within the week 39 retail advert survey, the variety of typical and natural ice cream adverts elevated.
