Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff stories on international protein information
22 November 2024
11 minute learn
Weekly USDA US pork export gross sales
Pork: Internet gross sales of 18,100 MT for 2024 had been down 9 % from the earlier week, however unchanged from the prior 4-week common. Will increase had been primarily for Mexico (4,100 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT, together with decreases of 700 MT), Japan (2,000 MT, together with decreases of 1,100 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT, together with decreases of 800 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT, together with decreases of 700 MT). Internet gross sales of two,500 MT for 2025 had been primarily for Australia (900 MT), South Korea (600 MT), Colombia (400 MT), Costa Rica (200 MT), and Japan (100 MT). Exports of 32,000 MT had been up 3 % from the earlier week, however down 2 % from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to Mexico (12,600 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), China (2,900 MT), and Colombia (2,800 MT).
USDA annual Australia dairy market report
Milk manufacturing for 2025 in Australia is forecast to extend by 1.1 % to eight.8 million metric tons (MMT) after sturdy development of two.7 % for 2024 at an estimated 8.7 MMT from earlier years of declining manufacturing. Expectations for 2025 can be greater if not for difficult dry circumstances in elements of Australia’s dairy-producing areas. Recent milk consumption is forecast to reverse a five-year decline. Manufacturing unit use of milk is anticipated to rise, with a lot of it forecast to be diverted to cheese manufacturing. Pores and skin Milk Powder (SMP) and Entire Milk Powder (WMP) manufacturing is forecast to stay steady, however there’s a slight improve in butter manufacturing. Exports for SMP, WMP, and butter are forecast to average in 2025 after sturdy outcomes thus far in 2024.
China’s pork imports proceed to say no
China imported 90,000 MT of pork in October, down 10% from September and 1.6% lower than final yr. By the primary 10 months of the yr, China imported 890,000 MT of pork, down 34.9% from the identical interval final yr.
Oregon confirms first human case of H5N1
The US Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) on Friday confirmed H5N1 in an individual in Oregon. The contaminated particular person is linked to a beforehand reported outbreak tied to a business poultry operation within the state, the place the virus has been confirmed in 150,000 birds, the state well being authority stated.
USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: November 2024
Dressed Weights and Milk per Cow: January–September 2024, 2023, and 2018–2022 Averages The chart under reveals carcass weights for the typical steer, hog, and broiler and the typical milk produced per cow per day. The common dressed weight for steers has been greater in 2024 than it was in 2023. Dressed weights for barrows and gilts had been unusually low within the latter half of 2023. To this point in 2024, dressed weights for hogs have been near current historic averages. Younger-chicken weights in 2024 are like these of 2023 and above the earlier 5-year common. Milk per cow in 2024 tracks 2023.
Beef/Cattle: The manufacturing outlook is raised from final month for each 2024 and 2025. Fourth quarter 2024 manufacturing is forecast marginally greater than final month, elevating the annual forecast to 27.025 billion kilos. That is primarily based on a slower anticipated tempo of fed cattle marketings that’s greater than offset by greater anticipated cow slaughter and heavier carcass weights for the remainder of the yr. The outlook for 2025 manufacturing is raised to 26.280 billion kilos on greater anticipated fed cattle marketings and heavier carcass weights from final month. Quarterly cattle value forecasts in 2025 are raised every quarter on a quicker tempo of marketings anticipated subsequent yr. Primarily based on September commerce information, U.S. beef imports are raised in late 2024 and in second-half 2025. The outlook for U.S. beef exports is raised for subsequent yr primarily based on higher anticipated beef manufacturing in 2025.
Dairy: The forecasts for the herd dimension and milk per cow within the fourth quarter of 2024 are unchanged; nevertheless, the forecasts for the yr are adjusted, reflecting 2024 third-quarter information. Consequently, 2024 milk manufacturing is forecast at 226.0 billion kilos, 0.2 billion kilos greater than the earlier forecast. With current value actions and higher-than-expected third-quarter inventories, the 2024 value forecast for butter is revised downward. The value forecasts for dry whey and nonfat dry milk are revised upward on tight inventories and powerful worldwide demand. The all-milk value forecast for 2024 is lowered to $22.75 per hundredweight (cwt). The modifications in 2024 product value forecasts are carried into 2025, together with an upward revision for the Cheddar cheese value forecast. The all-milk value forecast for 2025 is raised to $22.85 per cwt.
Pork/Hogs: The forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 pork manufacturing is decreased by 90 million kilos to 7.3 billion kilos, resulting from a slower tempo of slaughter. Fourth-quarter hog costs are raised to $60 per cwt, 12 % greater than a yr in the past. Decrease availability of slaughter-ready hogs at lighter dressed weights is forecast into the primary half of 2025. First-quarter pork manufacturing is lowered to 7 billion kilos, about 1 % under same-period manufacturing this yr. First-quarter 2025 hog costs are forecast at $58 per cwt, nearly 6 % greater than a yr earlier. Second-quarter 2025 costs are anticipated to be $62 per cwt, greater than 5 % under same-period costs this yr. September pork exports had been 7 % greater than these in September 2023. Third-quarter exports totaled to 1.676 billion kilos, 8.6 % above similar interval shipments final yr. Whole exports for 2024 are forecast at 7.2 billion kilos, 4.8 % greater than exports final yr. Whole exports for 2025 are anticipated to be about 7.4 billion kilos, 2.8 % greater than exports forecast for 2024.
Poultry/Eggs: Projected broiler manufacturing is revised up in 2025 on favorable hatchery indicators and feed costs. Projected broiler exports had been adjusted down in 2024 and 2025 on current information and powerful international competitors. Wholesale broiler value expectations in 2024 and 2025 are adjusted barely greater primarily based on current information. Desk egg manufacturing projections are adjusted down in 2024 and 2025 on a slow-growing layer flock and extra losses resulting from avian influenza. Egg and egg-product export projections are unchanged in outlying quarters. Egg value projections are adjusted up in 2024 and early 2025 on current information. Projected turkey manufacturing and exports are unchanged in outlying quarters. Projected turkey costs are adjusted up barely within the fourth quarter of 2024 and the primary two quarters of 2025 on current information.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (11/15) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.6300. The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.6205 (-0.0470). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6850 and 40# blocks at $1.6925. The weekly common for barrels is $1.6820 (-0.1315) and blocks $1.6935 (-0.0745). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.4000. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.3990 (+0.0110). DRY WHEY: Additional grade dry whey closed at $0.6550. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.6365 (+0.0165).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: East area stakeholders point out home retail and meals service butter demand is lighter. Central area stakeholders point out home retail butter demand is regular, and meals service demand has been lighter for Q3/This autumn 2024 so far. West area stakeholders point out home demand varies from regular to lighter for each sectors. Business contributors convey regular or stronger demand from worldwide consumers. Cream volumes proceed to be removed from brief all through a lot of the nation. Butter manufacturing paces are blended throughout the nation. For some butter producers November/December churn gear initiatives are decreasing manufacturing capability. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to eight cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing stays blended all through the U.S. Within the East, cheese plant managers relay blended cheese manufacturing schedules. Milk outputs are rising seasonally in some pockets of the area, however fluid milk volumes stay tight. Contacts share demand for Italian fashion cheeses is rising. Meals service demand is gradual. Within the Central area, cheesemakers share manufacturing is seasonally lively. Milk availability varies all through the area. Spot milk masses had been reported at $3.00 underneath to $3.00 above Class III. Some contacts relay slower meals service gross sales. Within the West, spot milk volumes stay tight however are sufficient to satisfy manufacturing wants. Contacts share blended cheese manufacturing schedules. Cheese plant managers share regular to stronger demand from retail consumers.
FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: With a couple of exceptions, milk manufacturing is regular to greater throughout the nation. Regular milk manufacturing is being seen over a big stretch of the nation, overlaying the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Higher Midwest, and Pacific Northwest. Stronger volumes are being seen in Arizona, New Mexico, and the southern Central states. Texas, for example, is seeing an uptick in spot milk availability. Numbers in California the Northeast are blended as some producers are seeing barely heavy volumes, whereas others are seeing lighter volumes. Class I demand continues to maintain milk balanced to tight throughout the nation. Bottled stock is heading not solely to colleges but additionally to retailer cabinets earlier than the vacation. Class III demand is regular to sturdy as orders from cheese producers are choosing up. Within the Midwest, spot milk costs had been wherever from $.50- to $3-over Class III, whereas $3-under Class was reported within the South. All Class manufacturing calls for for milk are regular all through the nation. Cream volumes are unfastened over a lot of the nation, the Southwest portion of the nation is experiencing tighter cream availability, and better cream multiples. Cream demand is blended. Butter producers have constructed up their inventories, however Class II and III demand is starting to develop as cream finds quite a lot of finish customers earlier than the vacation season. Condensed skim is accessible, though not as a lot as in earlier weeks. Demand for condensed skim is holding regular throughout the nation. Cream multiples for all Lessons vary 1.20-1.32 within the East, 0.90-1.26 within the Midwest, and 1.00-1.30 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Commodity dairy powders, for probably the most half, are within the midst of a bullish push. Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs shifted greater. Demand notes stay subdued, however provides are comfortable all through the nation. Dry buttermilk costs moved greater all through the areas. Provides from West to East have tightened in current weeks as bullish This autumn expectations have come to fruition relating to dry buttermilk markets. Dry complete milk costs had been unchanged on restricted spot buying and selling exercise. Dry whey availability limitations proceed to maintain markets bullish, and regardless of blended pries within the Central area, costs had been greater in different areas. The lactose value vary contracted, transferring greater on the backside of the vary however decrease on the high. Whey protein focus 34% costs continued their current ascent. Dry complete milk and acid casein costs had been unchanged, whereas rennet casein costs shifted decrease.
ORGANIC DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS: The USDA Farm Service Company (FSA) is extending the appliance deadline for the Natural Dairy Advertising and marketing Help Program (ODMAP) 2024 to December 13, 2024. The 2024 ODMAP helps natural dairy producers mitigate market volatility, greater enter and transportation prices, and unstable feed provide and costs. The International Agricultural Service (FAS) releases month-to-month export information which incorporates export volumes and values for natural milk categorized as HS-10 code 0401201000. Just lately launched information for September 2024 indicated natural milk exports had been 268,828 liters, down 7.7 % from the month prior, however up 70.4 % from 2023. Exports of natural milk from the beginning of the yr by way of September are up 28.8 %, in comparison with the identical interval one yr in the past. Natural feed corn trades had been lively with mild demand. Natural feed soybean trades had been average with mild to average demand. Natural feed corn bought 5 cents greater delivered elevator with the majority of trades occurring for ahead contracts delivering This autumn 2024 by way of Q3 2025. Natural feed soybeans bought 13 cents decrease delivered elevator with ahead contracts delivering This autumn 2024 by way of Q3 2025.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Standard dairy advertisements elevated by 5 %, whereas natural dairy advertisements elevated by 243 % this week. Though whole typical cheese advertisements decreased for week 46 in comparison with week 45, typical cheese was simply probably the most marketed typical dairy commodity. Standard 6-8 ounce packages of sliced, shredded and block cheese have weighted common marketed costs of $2.75, $2.51, and $2.71, respectively. The shredded fashion had a value lower of three cents for this package deal dimension. Each the sliced and block kinds had value will increase for this package deal dimension. The block fashion had the bigger value improve, which was 29 cents.
NOVEMBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES (WASDE): The milk manufacturing forecast for 2024 is raised from the earlier month. Primarily based on the newest Milk Manufacturing report, decrease reported milk cow numbers for the third quarter of 2024 had been greater than offset by greater output per cow. The milk forecast for 2025 is unchanged. The butter value forecast is decreased for 2024, as costs have continued to fall from the comparatively excessive ranges they maintained for a lot of the yr by way of late-September. The cheese value forecast for 2024 is unchanged. For 2025, butter value forecasts are lowered resulting from comparatively greater inventories heading into the 2024 vacation season. The cheese value forecast is raised, primarily based on greater costs and tight inventories in late 2024. The Class III value forecast is unchanged for 2024. The Class IV value forecast is lowered, with decrease butter costs greater than offsetting greater NDM. The all milk value for 2024 is lowered to $22.75 per cwt. The all milk value forecast for 2025 is raised to $22.85 per cwt.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (BLS): The October CPI for all meals is 332.7, up 2.1 % from 2023. The dairy merchandise index is 271.7, up 1.3 % from a yr in the past. The next are the October, yr to yr share modifications for chosen merchandise: contemporary complete milk is +1.5; cheese, +0.6; and butter, +5.1.
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (BLS): The October PPI for all meals is 260.6, up 2.1 % from 2023. The dairy merchandise index is 252.2, up 5.1 % from a yr in the past. The next are the October, yr to yr share modifications for chosen merchandise: contemporary complete milk, +10.7; cheese, +9.1; and butter, -22.3.
