Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff stories on world protein information
24 Could 2024
10 minute learn
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Internet US gross sales of 21,500 MT for 2024 had been up 42 % from the earlier week and 32 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase had been primarily for China (5,800 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (5,100 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (2,900 MT), Japan (2,500 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), and Taiwan (1,600 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT). Exports of 17,300 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 11 % from the earlier week and 15 % from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to South Korea (5,100 MT), Japan (3,300 MT), China (3,100 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT), and Mexico (1,300 MT).
Pork: Internet US gross sales of 26,300 MT for 2024 had been up 24 % from the earlier week, however down 3 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase had been primarily for Mexico (10,300 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Japan (4,100 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT, together with decreases of 800 MT), Canada (2,000 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), and Colombia (1,900 MT). Exports of 34,300 MT had been up 3 % from the earlier week, however down 5 % from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to Mexico (13,900 MT), Japan (4,700 MT), South Korea (4,300 MT), China (3,200 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT).
U.S. in ‘lively conversations’ on potential H5N1 vaccine for people
The U.S. is in “lively conversations” with mRNA vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna a few potential H5N1 vaccine for people, a Division of Well being and Human Providers official stated Wednesday. That got here after it was revealed a second human case of the virus was present in a farmworker in Michigan, as we reported in “Night Report” on Wednesday. The U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) reiterated threat from the virus to most of the people stays low. CDC has not seen proof of human-to-human transmission of H5N1 and has examined near 40 individuals since March, together with the Michigan employee. All of the individuals who had been examined had been related to or had exposures on a dairy farm, CDC stated.
USDA stories on China dairy business
USDA has elevated its estimate of uncooked milk manufacturing in 2024 on account of a bigger dairy cow stock. Imports of fluid milk, complete milk powder (WMP), and skimmed milk powder (SMP) are estimated to all decline in 2024 on account of greater home milk manufacturing. Cheese and butter imports are estimated to say no reasonably due to financial headwinds that proceed influencing consumption. USDA estimates whey and whey product imports in 2024 to say no as demand shrinks in each meals use and feed use owing to declining beginning charges and a decrease piglet stock.
Australia reported its first human case of H5N1 extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)
The case includes a baby who contracted the virus in India and has since recovered. This marks the primary detection of H5N1 in a human in Australia. Moreover, an unidentified H7 pressure has been discovered on an egg farm in Melbourne, suspected to have originated from wild birds. The contaminated birds might be culled, and motion restrictions have been imposed across the farm. Victoria’s chief veterinary officer, Graeme Cooke, highlighted the world’s excessive poultry density and the uncertainty about potential unfold to different properties. This incident follows an H7N7 outbreak in Victoria in 2020, emphasizing the connection between wild and home birds in virus transmission.
USDA stories on Mexico dairy business
Mexico’s milk, cheese, and butter manufacturing are forecast yr on yr development of two % in 2024. Dairy farmers are anticipated to mitigate the impacts of extended drought and warmth circumstances with beforehand saved forage, elevated feed grain imports, and water storage mechanisms. Cheese and butter imports are forecast to extend primarily based on extra home demand. Total, milk powder imports are forecast to extend pushed by demand from the dairy processing business and for reconstitution into fluid milk for social applications.
Hefty hog, poultry losses on account of flooding in southern Brazil
The Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul incurred in depth losses of livestock and poultry on account of latest flooding. Hog farmers misplaced an estimated 12,600 head after floods submerged complete cities within the state, Valdecir Folador, head of a neighborhood hog producers foyer ACSURS, stated. He famous some 30 farms had been affected, together with these of suppliers to BRF and JBS. ASGAV, a bunch representing native poultry processors and farmers, estimated 279,000 head of poultry destined for slaughter died, in addition to 150,000 laying hens. 4 meatpackers’ vegetation had been halted, ASGAV stated. Rio Grande do Sul accounts for twenty-four.2% of general Brazilian pork exports and for 16.2% of Brazil’s hen exports, in response to nationwide business foyer ABPA. The port of Rio Grande, additionally disrupted by floods and landslides that blocked roads and affected a rail hyperlink to its terminals, ships practically 9% of Brazil’s general pork exports and 6.3% of the nation’s hen exports, in response to ABPA knowledge.
China’s pork imports stay gradual
China imported 90,000 MT of pork in April, the identical as March however down 35.7% final yr. By way of the primary 4 months of this yr, China’s pork imports stood at 340,000 MT, down 48.4% from the identical interval final yr.
Chicken flu found in western China
Circumstances of fowl flu have been confirmed amongst wild fowl in western China, the ag ministry stated on Saturday. Two counties in Qinghai province confirmed 275 circumstances of H5 influenza amongst lifeless Pallas’s gull and different wild birds.
Greater than 50 US dairy herds confirmed with HPAI
Final week, 5 extra herds had been confirmed, with two in Idaho and three in Michigan, bringing the full to 51 herds in 9 states. USDA’s Meals Security and Inspection Service (FSIS) revealed that floor beef cooked to 145- and 160-degrees Fahrenheit eliminates the H5N1 virus, guaranteeing the advisable cooking temperatures are efficient. There have been no new detections of HPAI in U.S. poultry since Could 10, however previously 30 days, 4 business and 7 yard flocks, totaling 170,000 birds, have been affected.
U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) Spring Convention kicks off
In Kansas Metropolis, the lineup of visitor audio system consists of CattleFax CEO Randy Blach. He’ll focus on the standing of the U.S. cattle business’s herd rebuilding efforts, in addition to different elements impacting protein provides in each the home and worldwide markets. Kip Tom, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations for Meals and Agriculture, will replace USMEF members on insurance policies being debated by worldwide organizations and key buying and selling companions, and the potential implications for purple meat commerce. The USMEF Spring Convention runs by means of Friday. Audio system additionally embrace USDA International Agricultural Service Administrator Daniel Whitley and Anne-Marie Roerink, a meat shopper perception knowledgeable and writer of the Energy of Meat report.
Iowa ‘pretend meat’ regulation
Below a brand new regulation signed by Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, meat alternate options bought within the state, akin to plant-based proteins, have to be labeled clearly to point they aren’t meat. Moreover, state-supported faculties are prohibited from buying lab-grown meat.
Peru, China to debate beef exports
Peru’s President Dina Boluarte will journey to China in June to satisfy together with her counterpart Xi Jinping, with beef exports to China among the many matters prone to be mentioned. Peru’s ag minister says beef shipments to China might present a $3 billion to $4 billion increase to its financial system.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (5/17) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $3.0700. The weekly common for Grade AA is $3.0405 (+0.0190). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $2.1250 and 40# blocks at $1.9425. The weekly common for barrels is $2.0675 (+0.1700) and blocks $1.9360 (+0.0180). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1650. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1645 (+0.0330). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.4150. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.3990 (+0.0155).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Retail butter demand ranges from regular to sturdy throughout the nation. Meals service demand is regular and assembly expectations. Though some business members say cream availability is tightening considerably, cream is usually obtainable all through the nation. Like home demand, butter manufacturing varies from regular to sturdy nationally. A number of butter producers observe working to construct inventory previous to deliberate downtime in June. Unsalted bulk butter stays tighter than different butter varieties. Bulk butter overages vary from 2 to 10 cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing schedules are regular to stronger all through the U.S. Farm degree milk manufacturing stays sturdy within the East area, and contacts share cheese manufacturing schedules are seasonally regular. Cheese demand is regular to stronger, and retail demand, particularly, stays elevated. Within the Central area, cheese plant managers relay busy manufacturing schedules. Some vegetation have shifted from a five-day manufacturing schedule to a six-day work week. Some cheesemakers reported scheduled or surprising downtime this week, which opened spot milk availability. Spot milk costs had been reported at $4-under Class III to $1.00 over. Western contacts relay regular cheese manufacturing schedules, with some bringing in extra spot milk hundreds to spice up manufacturing. In some areas within the area, nevertheless, Class III spot milk load availability is tightening. Export demand is at the moment regular.
FLUID MILK: Milk manufacturing is following seasonal developments throughout the nation. Within the hotter, drier states from Texas throughout to California, manufacturing is regular to slowing. Farmers within the Pacific Northwest by means of the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado are seeing regular to strengthening manufacturing. Within the Midwest and East, milk output is usually regular. Class I utilization is starting to wane as the varsity yr nears its fruits in elements of the nation, specifically within the southern states. Spot a great deal of condensed skim are available in all areas, and demand is robust within the West. Cream demand is at the moment regular, however demand could enhance as seasonal ice cream manufacturing will increase. Processors throughout the nation say they’re comfy with the present provide of cream and milk, however availability within the East and West is starting to tighten as demand for a number of the lessons ticks up. Cream multiples for all Lessons are 1.05 – 1.29 within the East, 1.08 – 1.28 within the Midwest, and 1.00 – 1.23 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Nationally, low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs are being pushed up by rising home and export demand. Due to seasonally declining milk availability and stable cheese demand, some contacts within the Midwest anticipate extra NDM might be transferring to cheese vats. Excessive warmth NDM costs are combined. Some producers within the West are solely operating excessive warmth NDM at buyer requests. Dry buttermilk costs are combined. Busy churning schedules are offering loads of liquid and condensed buttermilk. Dry complete milk costs rose as inventories stay tight. Dry whey costs held regular within the East and are regular to decrease within the West and Midwest. Contacts counsel dry whey demand is regular or nearing the seasonal low, and hundreds are typically obtainable to satisfy most purchaser wants. Lactose costs are regular to barely greater. Demand stays sturdy for home and export use. Export hundreds are being provided at costs close to the underside of the vary to stay aggressive with hundreds produced in worldwide markets. Whey protein focus 34% costs are regular to barely decrease. Manufacturing is concentrated on greater whey protein concentrates and whey protein isolate, preserving WPC 34% manufacturing restricted. The rennet casein worth vary moved decrease, and the acid casein worth vary rose with declining manufacturing internationally.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The USDA just lately introduced extra funding awarded to 23 grant tasks by means of the OMDG Program. The USDA Secretary of Agriculture just lately introduced extra funding to increase markets for natural merchandise and to assist producers transition to natural productions. This funding will create applications supporting new and higher markets for natural merchandise, create coaching alternatives for transitioning farmers, and the monetary burden of natural certification. Just lately launched survey knowledge from a U.S. group confirmed in 2023 home licensed natural product gross sales had been up from the prior yr, reaching a brand new excessive. In the course of the week 20 retail advert survey, extra natural dairy adverts had been discovered than in week 19. Essentially the most marketed natural dairy product this week was milk. Natural yogurt was this week’s second most marketed natural dairy product. Cream cheese noticed the biggest share development of all natural merchandise in week’s survey, showing in 2785 % extra adverts than final week, and was the third most marketed natural dairy product within the Week 20 survey.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Complete typical dairy ads elevated by 12 %, and whole natural dairy adverts elevated by 79 %. Standard ice cream in 48–64-ounce containers was essentially the most marketed dairy product, with a weighted common marketed worth of $3.94, down from $4.08 the week earlier than. Standard butter in one-pound packages had a weighted common marketed worth of $4.03, up from $3.65 the week prior.
