Weekly world protein digest: Chinese language meat exports decline, 1st US H5N1 case with no recognized animal publicity

13 September 2024

12 minute learn

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export gross sales

Beef: Web US gross sales of 11,400 MT for 2024 had been down 31 p.c from the earlier week and 41 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase had been primarily for South Korea (3,200 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (1,900 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Japan (1,500 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Canada (1,100 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 11,800 MT had been down 21 p.c from the earlier week and 16 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to South Korea (3,100 MT), Japan (2,600 MT), China (1,800 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (600 MT).

Pork: Web US gross sales of 29,700 MT for 2024 had been up 43 p.c from the earlier week and 15 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase had been primarily for Mexico (14,200 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), Colombia (2,400 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), China (2,000 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), and Canada (1,400 MT, together with decreases of 700 MT). Whole internet gross sales of 100 MT for 2025 had been for the Dominican Republic. Exports of 25,700 MT had been down 8 p.c from the earlier week and 10 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to Mexico (10,700 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), China (3,200 MT), Colombia (1,700 MT), and South Korea (1,600 MT).

Chinese language meat imports have declined considerably in comparison with earlier years

By means of the primary eight months of 2024, China imported 4.40 million metric tons (MMT) of meat merchandise, down 13.9% from the identical interval in 2023. In August 2024, China imported 565,000 MT of meat, which was 9.9% decrease than August 2023. Beef imports have been notably affected, with volumes down 27% year-over-year in July 2024.

A number of components are contributing to decrease Chinese language meat imports in 2024:

• Financial headwinds are impacting consumption of each pork and beef.
• China has ample home meat provides after increase shares in 2023.
• Pork manufacturing in China stays excessive, lowering import wants.
• Chinese language shoppers are in search of cheaper protein choices as a result of financial slowdown.

Import bans on some U.S. meat amenities have restricted provide.

Pork

• Pork imports could develop marginally to offset a forecasted 3% decline in home manufacturing.
• China’s pork output fell 0.4% year-over-year in Q1 2024, the primary quarterly decline in almost 4 years.

Beef

• Beef imports are anticipated to say no in 2024 as a result of excessive year-end stock and flat demand.
• China’s share of worldwide beef imports is forecast to be 5% under 2023 ranges.

Poultry

• Poultry meat imports accounted for $282 million in July 2024, leading to a unfavorable commerce steadiness.

Impression on world commerce

• The U.S. has seen a fall in meat exports as China scales again imports.
• Brazil has elevated beef exports to China, up 10.2% within the first half of 2024.
• Australia has shifted extra beef exports to the U.S. and Japan as Chinese language demand weakens.

Backside line: Whereas there have been some month-to-month fluctuations, general Chinese language meat imports stay effectively under 2023 ranges as home manufacturing stays excessive and financial components dampen demand. This has led to shifts in world meat commerce flows, with exporters just like the U.S., Brazil and Australia adjusting to altering Chinese language import patterns.

Highlights of US pork group digital briefing on key challenges

Backside line points for Nationwide Pork Producers Council:

Brian Humphreys, CEO of the Nationwide Pork Producers Council, mentioned: We’re right here to seek out options, not simply focus on challenges. We’d like a 2024 Farm Invoice — not an extension. We’d like a legislative repair to California’s Prop 12, resolutions to the labor scarcity, and an energetic commerce agenda. NPPC says transferring a brand new farm invoice this yr with language proscribing state animal welfare guidelines is the group’s high precedence.

• Want for brand new farm invoice: “With all of the stress on farmers now, it is necessary that we get this moved now whereas we have the chance,” Duane Stateler, president-elect of NPPC, mentioned within the digital briefing. “If the farm invoice goes into subsequent yr, it begins throughout. We now have many good issues on this farm invoice which makes it crucial we get it carried out in 2024,” Lori Stevermer, NPPC president, mentioned within the briefing.

• Proposition 12: “The 2024 Farm Invoice is a golden alternative to handle a high problem for pork producers throughout the nation – California Prop 12,” Stevermer mentioned. Proposition 12, a 2018 California poll initiative, prohibits the sale of raw entire pork meat not produced based on the state’s arbitrary housing dimensions. The initiative locations the associated fee and compliance burden on pork producers, who’re almost all situated outdoors of California, and places the business prone to important consolidation, NPPC argues. The Supreme Courtroom of the USA mentioned this is a matter for Congress to resolve, and NPPC has been urging passage of the farm invoice which features a federal answer to Prop 12. “We can’t proceed down a path of unscientific guidelines and rules,” Humphreys mentioned on the decision. “It is not a query about what has occurred, but it surely’s a query of how will we transfer ahead and shield the U.S. from this patchwork of rules? We admire the bipartisan answer within the farm invoice to make that occur.” Stevermer mentioned Prop 12 impacts prolong past producers because it has additionally resulted in increased costs for shoppers. “Pork costs are up on common 20% since Prop 12 went into place, and the availability is down about 20% in order that’s not good for shoppers, and it isn’t good for farmers both,” she mentioned.

• Labor points stay a priority, with the group presses for enhancements to the TN expert guestworker visa program. NPPC mentioned coverage considerations embody addressing the persistent ag labor scarcity and contending with inflationary impacts on manufacturing prices. Whereas ag labor discussions usually concentrate on the H-2A ag guestworker program for low-skilled farm laborers, pork business officers mentioned additionally they face problem utilizing the TN visa program, which permits companies to acquire expert employees from Mexico and Canada. The State Division lately made modifications to this system aimed toward streamlining it, however NPPC officers mentioned they’ve successfully closed off the flexibility to make use of TN visas by the pork sector. “It simply looks as if each day there’s much less and fewer TNs accredited,” mentioned NPPC Vice President Rob Brenneman. He defined that this system has change into extra necessary in serving to producers safe the employees expert in using new manufacturing applied sciences which might be troublesome to seek out within the home labor market. “I feel it is completely absurd that we simply maintain getting TNs denied … we have been to the State Division, and we have been to the White Home and had conversations, and it simply looks as if they’re doing every little thing of their energy to do the alternative of what we’re asking as a result of nothing’s modified,” Brenneman mentioned.

• Value of manufacturing. NPPC officers mentioned that apart from labor shortages, producers additionally proceed to grapple with increased manufacturing prices, although the expansion in prices has slowed in areas like feed. Different mounted prices like transport, labor and utility payments imply general manufacturing prices stay roughly 25% increased than they had been three years in the past, officers harassed. “Whereas we’re getting a bit of aid on the feed aspect, we’re nonetheless seeing elevated prices of manufacturing,” mentioned NPPC board member Scott Hays.
• CAFOs: Officers had been requested to weigh in on a lawsuit from environmental teams in search of to compel EPA to behave on their petition in search of an overhaul of how the company regulates concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). NPPC and different livestock and poultry pursuits are backing EPA’s resolution to disclaim the petition, because the query heads to federal court docket later this week. Calling the CAFO lawsuit “an assault on ag by activist teams,” NPPC’s Statler mentioned, noting EPA was proper to disclaim the petition. “What they’ve requested EPA to do was unlawful.” Stateler praised EPA for partaking with stakeholders together with NPPC on the problem to collect info earlier than contemplating any further motion. “They determined to have a look and have a look at the information, they usually turned it over to discover the problems which might be actually involving all CAFOs and the ag teams, together with NPPC, are collaborating in that course of,” he added, saying the group appears to be like ahead to discovering an answer that works for all concerned.
• Commerce coverage: NPPC continues to induce new commerce agreements, however acknowledges new FTAs are unlikely. “We all know that is not how issues are being carried out — within the method that perhaps they had been, you realize, 10 or 15 years in the past,” Stevermer mentioned relating to new FTAs, however she added that such agreements will not be an finish all be all for commerce. Commerce applications just like the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and African Progress and Alternative Act (AGOA), each pending renewal, are additionally necessary for the sector, she mentioned.

US confirms first H5N1 case with no recognized animal publicity

A Missouri resident has been confirmed as the primary case of the H5N1 virus with no recognized publicity to sick animals, based on the CDC. The person, who was hospitalized and has since recovered, had no work-related contact with animals. The an infection was recognized by means of routine flu surveillance, somewhat than the focused H5N1 program usually used for farm employees. This marks a shift in how the virus is being monitored and will point out new patterns of transmission.

FAO meals worth index slips once more in August

The UN Meals and Agriculture Group world meals worth index slipped 0.5% in August, the second straight small month-to-month decline, as decreases in sugar, meat and cereal grains outweighed will increase for vegoils and dairy merchandise. The August index was down 1.1% from final yr. In comparison with year-ago, costs declined 12.0% for cereal grains and 23.1% for sugar, whereas they rose 3.6% for meats, 14.3% for dairy and eight.1% for vegoils.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (9/06) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $3.1750. The weekly common for Grade AA is $3.1594 (-0.0226). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $2.2750 and 40# blocks at $2.2700. The weekly common for barrels is $2.2588 (+0.0473) and blocks $2.2363 (+0.1083). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3650. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.3550 (+0.0435). DRY WHEY: Additional grade dry whey closed at $0.5875. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.5725 (+0.0120).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Within the West, butter demand varies from regular to stronger for the retail and meals service sectors. Within the Central area, butter demand is stronger for each as effectively with seasonal energy gathering. For the East, retail demand is stronger, and meals service demand is regular. Cream provides are looser with the vacation weekend contributing to market availability of masses. Nonetheless, not sufficient to make cream volumes abundantly out there all through the nation. Stakeholders convey cream availability stays comparatively tight within the East. Butter manufacturing paces principally fluctuate from regular to stronger. Bulk butter overages vary from minus 7 to 10 cents above market, throughout all areas.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Contacts relay cheese manufacturing schedules fluctuate from regular to lighter all through the U.S. Within the East, milk availability for Class III processors is tempered by sturdy Class I bottling demand. Labor Day weekend freed up some spot milk quickly, however contacts proceed to share seasonally regular to lighter cheese manufacturing exercise. Within the Central area, contacts report spot milk costs starting from $1/cwt to $2.50/cwt over Class III. That mentioned, some cheesemakers relay getting no spot milk gives, and cheese manufacturing stays seasonally lighter. Some processors share they’re shifting manufacturing focus away from blocks and again into barrels. Contacts within the West are working regular cheese manufacturing schedules regardless of tight spot milk availability. Some producers share there are restricted cheese inventories out there for spot purchasers.

FLUID MILK: The unceasing milk manufacturing carried on throughout the nation regardless of the vacation weekend. Farm degree milk manufacturing proceeds to weaken over a lot of the East and Midwest. Processors there are feeling the pinch in manufacturing. Reported spot milk costs within the Midwest ranged from $1-over to $2.50 over Class III. Cooler temperatures are being seen over some elements of each areas, and farmers are anticipating the consequences within the coming weeks. Arizona and the Pacific Northwest are additionally experiencing a dip in milk ranges. Many of the mountain states have typically regular manufacturing. Elevated ranges of milk are being seen in California and New Mexico. Nationwide, faculty schedules have pushed Class I demand for bottling to its peak. Class II and III manufacturing is blended as Class I attracts on out there milk provides. Calls for for cream and condensed skim are regular to sturdy. Spot a great deal of condensed skim are a rarity in a lot of the nation. Cream provides stay tight, however a small achieve in cream availability was seen over the vacation weekend. It isn’t anticipated to final lengthy, however Class IV producers are profiting from it. Cream multiples vary from 1.15 – 1.50 within the East, 1.16 – 1.34 within the Midwest, and 1.10 – 1.30 within the West.

DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs moved up at each side in all areas this week. Clearly, markets have discovered some bullish tailwinds with stronger demand and tightening provides. Dry buttermilk costs had been regular within the Central/East areas, whereas transferring increased within the West. Dry buttermilk This fall demand has begun to stir potential market bulls. Central and West whey costs had been regular to increased, whereas East whey costs held regular. Whey provides are famous as very tight based on a lot of processors. Lactose costs had been regular to barely decrease, as worldwide demand has been much less constant lately. Whey protein focus (WPC) 34% costs edged increased at each level this week on renewed curiosity from finish customers, notably those that can alternate between WPC 34% and NDM. Dry entire milk costs had been increased this week, as curiosity stays regular, however inventories are, and have been, noticeably tight. Rennet and acid casein costs had been regular on quiet buying and selling exercise.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The primary publication of the Pennsylvania Month-to-month Natural Dairy Report was launched on September 6, 2024. The Vermont Month-to-month Natural Dairy Report overlaying June 2024 confirmed the weighted common worth for fluid milk decreased from Might, whereas the entire quantity and common every day manufacturing per cow additionally decreased. The USDA AMS Nationwide Natural Program (NOP) Natural Insider despatched out on August thirtieth mentioned an upcoming assembly of the Nationwide Natural Requirements Board (NOSB) in Portland, Oregon in October 2024. Month-to-month export volumes for natural milk throughout July 2024 had been up from the month prior, and up from July 2023. Whole natural dairy advertisements elevated within the week 36 retail advert survey. Each natural commodity current in final week’s survey, besides bitter cream, appeared in additional advertisements this week. This week’s most marketed natural dairy product was milk. Natural cottage cheese, cream cheese, and ice cream appeared on this week’s retail advert survey after not being current final week.

US RETAIL REPORT: Standard dairy commercial totals slid 11 p.c decrease, whereas natural retail dairy advert totals elevated 42 p.c throughout week 36. Standard ice cream, in 48-to-64-ounce containers, for the second consecutive week was not probably the most marketed dairy merchandise, as that merchandise’s advert totals decreased 43 p.c from final week. Standard sliced cheese in six-to-eight-ounce packages was probably the most marketed merchandise this week, whereas half-gallon milk returned to its regular high spot amongst natural dairy gadgets, after a 65 p.c enhance from final week’s advert totals.