Weekly world protein digest – Colorado ramps up H5N1 dairy testing, US cattle on feed report: placements lower than anticipated

26 July 2024

17 minute learn

Weekly world protein digest—7-25-24

Weekly US beef, pork export gross sales

Beef:  Internet US gross sales of 13,400 MT for 2024 have been down 13 p.c from the earlier week and 4 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase have been primarily for South Korea (4,400 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), Japan (2,200 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), China (1,800 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,200 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 16,300 MT have been up 5 p.c from the earlier week and from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Japan (4,300 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT), China (2,500 MT), Mexico (1,600 MT), and Taiwan (1,300 MT).

Pork:  Internet US gross sales of 30,200 MT for 2024 have been up 28 p.c from the earlier week, however down 19 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase have been primarily for Mexico (7,700 MT, together with decreases of 800 MT), South Korea (6,400 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), Japan (4,500 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), Colombia (3,600 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and China (2,100 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 32,900 MT have been up 3 p.c from the earlier week and seven p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (13,200 MT), Japan (5,000 MT), China (3,900 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT), and Canada (2,100 MT).

Colorado ramps up H5N1 dairy testing

Colorado started requiring dairies to check milk provides for the H5N1 virus each week, the state’s lead veterinarian advised Reuters. The state’s new mandate goals to determine further farms that may very well be contaminated and unfold the illness to different dairies or poultry flocks. Colorado has confirmed infections in 47 dairy herds for the reason that U.S. outbreak in dairy cows started in late March, with about 60% of its circumstances detected prior to now month. A USDA epidemiological “strike staff” arrived in Colorado this week to evaluate how the virus could also be spreading amongst dairies.

China goals to manage dairy, beef output as weak gross sales hit costs

China plans to implement measures to assist dairy and beef producers restrict manufacturing to stop costs from falling additional, an ag ministry official mentioned. Earlier this 12 months, China issued rules to scale back its breeding sow inhabitants. Costs of beef and dairy, together with pork and poultry are falling in China as consumers, grappling with a slowing financial system, cut back purchases. “The costs of beef and uncooked milk within the first half of the 12 months fell by 12.1% and 12.5%, respectively, and beef cattle and dairy cow breeders are making losses,” mentioned Wang Lejun, the ag ministry’s Chief Animal Husbandry Officer. “For beef and dairy cows, we need to information farms to optimize and modify the herd construction, reasonably remove outdated and low-yielding cows, and higher match manufacturing growth with market demand,” he mentioned.

USDA reviews on dairy world markets and commerce

Ongoing Financial Disaster in Argentina Impacts Dairy

The Argentine dairy {industry} is grappling with vital challenges this 12 months led to by the nation’s financial disaster. The mix of inflation in home inputs and authorities instituted international change controls (restrictions on capital outflows, controls on international debt funds, and many others.) have wide-ranging impacts on milk manufacturing, export competitiveness, and home consumption, and is reshaping the {industry}’s panorama within the brief run.

Argentine dairy farmers rely closely on largely domestically produced inputs, together with feed, equipment, and gasoline. The elevated monetary burden has compelled many to chop manufacturing or search further capital, with many working at a loss. In consequence, year-to-date milk manufacturing in Argentina has declined precipitously. From January by June 2024, Argentina milk manufacturing fell 13 p.c from the identical interval in 2023. In 2023, milk manufacturing totaled 11.7 million tons, however this determine is forecast to fall 7 p.c to 10.8 million tons. The abrupt drop in manufacturing in early 2024 led to a speedy restoration in milk costs, which helps enlargement in manufacturing throughout the second half of the 12 months. The constant lower in manufacturing over the previous 5 years highlights the sector’s wrestle to take care of output ranges amidst rising prices and financial instability.

Conversely, the foreign money devaluation has made Argentine dairy merchandise extra aggressive within the world market. A weaker peso interprets to decrease costs for international consumers. Trade charges and inflation have been so disadvantageous to home producers that it raised vital uncertainty as as to if merchants would sit on inventories or if there can be a rush to safe international foreign money, notably in U.S. {dollars}. Dairy export volumes elevated 10 p.c within the first 5 months of 2024 in comparison with the identical interval in 2023. Notably, cheese exports are forecast to rise from 85,000 tons in 2023 to 100,000 tons in 2024. Domestically, the financial scenario stays difficult. The rise in manufacturing prices has led to increased costs for dairy merchandise on the home market.

In 2024, milk manufacturing within the European Union (EU) stays comparatively unchanged. Enhancements in output per cow are largely offset by declines within the dairy herd. The dairy cow inhabitants has dropped beneath 20 million, persevering with a development of declining herd measurement. This drop is pushed by varied elements together with decrease milk costs and elevated manufacturing prices. These financial challenges have led to the exit of smaller, much less environment friendly farms from the market, which has decreased general milk manufacturing capability. Moreover, environmental rules and insurance policies are impacting milk manufacturing. Initiatives to scale back nitrogen emissions in nations just like the Netherlands and Eire are anticipated to end in additional reductions in herd sizes. These environmental restrictions, mixed with challenges in generational renewal—the place youthful potential farmers are disinclined to take over because of the demanding nature and tight profitability of dairy farming—are contributing to the consolidation of the market. In consequence, bigger farms are prone to keep their herd sizes higher than smaller farms, which may assist regulate the discount in cow numbers.

The profitability of milk manufacturing has been declining since early 2023, with farm-gate milk costs dropping whereas manufacturing prices for inputs remaining excessive. This squeeze on margins is affecting farmers’ selections to proceed milk manufacturing, additional accelerating the decline in cow numbers. There was a short lived improve in milk deliveries in early 2024, however these positive factors aren’t anticipated to maintain all year long as farmers who postponed exiting the {industry} in 2023 are seemingly to take action in 2024. In 2024, the spring season noticed favorable climate in most components of Europe, with heat temperatures and ample rainfall, which benefited pasture circumstances and inexperienced feed availability. Nonetheless, some areas like northwestern Europe skilled extreme rainfall that hindered area entry and grassland re-growth, notably in nations like Eire the place pasture-based programs predominate.

New Zealand’s fluid milk manufacturing is forecast to say no by 0.7 p.c to 21.1 million tons in 2024. This decline is primarily attributed to the shrinking nationwide herd and the short-term results of the El Niño climate sample, which introduced each elevated rainfall and difficult dry circumstances at completely different instances of the 12 months. Moreover, the sector faces softening income and excessive prices of debt servicing, which have put strain on many dairy farmers. The macroeconomic surroundings in New Zealand stays difficult for a lot of dairy producers. Excessive rates of interest set by the Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand (RBNZ) have elevated the price of debt servicing, comprising almost 19 p.c of the breakeven milk value per kilogram of milk solids (KgMS). This monetary pressure is compounded by rising enter prices, notably for feed and fertilizer, that are crucial for sustaining excessive milk yields. Regardless of challenges for farmers, processors proceed to put money into upgrading processing capabilities, shifting from milk powder manufacturing to extra value-added merchandise corresponding to butter, cheese, and cream. Commerce stays a significant driver of New Zealand’s dairy {industry}, with 95 p.c of milk manufacturing exported in some type. The nation’s commerce agreements, notably with China, guarantee regular demand for its dairy merchandise.

Australia’s cheese manufacturing in 2024 is projected at 435,000 tons, supported by increased milk provides and comparatively sturdy profitability. Regardless of going through rising enter prices, Australian dairy farmers have maintained vital manufacturing ranges by technological funding and environment friendly administration practices. Cheese consumption inside Australia stays substantial, with an estimated 380,000 tons consumed domestically. Australian shoppers have a powerful choice for regionally produced cheese. The excess manufacturing is forecast to be exported, with roughly 165,000 tons of cheese anticipated to be despatched to worldwide markets in 2024. Main export locations embody Japan, China, and varied Southeast Asian nations. • In 2024, EU cheese manufacturing is ready to rise by almost 1 p.c, reaching roughly 10.5 million tons. This improve is pushed by sturdy home consumption and constant export demand. The first producers – Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland – contribute almost three quarters of the EU’s complete cheese output. Cheese manufacturing stays a key precedence for the European dairy sector on account of its reliable returns and excessive market demand. EU cheese exports are projected to develop by 1 p.c to 1.4 million tons in 2024.

Home consumption of cheese inside the EU is anticipated to speed up, supported by financial restoration and the resurgence of the hospitality and tourism sectors. Germany, France, Italy, Poland, and Spain are the main cheese-consuming nations. Following a dip in 2022 on account of decreased shopper buying energy, cheese consumption stabilized in 2023, however is anticipated to observe an upward trajectory in 2024. Components corresponding to rising incomes and the return to pre-COVID ranges of tourism and eating out are key contributors to this development in home cheese consumption.

In 2024, New Zealand’s cheese manufacturing is projected at 375,000 tons. Latest investments in processing amenities have enabled New Zealand to diversify its cheese portfolio, catering to each native and worldwide markets. This contains enlargement into gentle cheese varieties like brie, blue cheese and gouda. Home cheese consumption in New Zealand stays modest at round 40,000 tons, reflecting its smaller inhabitants. Consequently, nearly all of cheese produced is destined for export markets. This 12 months, New Zealand is anticipated to export roughly 350,000 tons of cheese and reflective of decrease forecast manufacturing. Key locations for these exports embody China, Japan, and Australia. • The outlook for U.S. cheese exports in 2024 is promising, with exports by Might already 28 p.c increased than the identical interval in 2023, bolstered by world financial restoration and a big value benefit in opposition to opponents within the first quarter of the 12 months.

Canada is a high 5 vacation spot for each US beef and pork exports

Nonetheless, shipments are typically slowed by regulatory points. The latest transition to the Public Well being Info System (PHIS) Export Module was meant to scale back paperwork and simplify the export course of. However Courtney Heller, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) director of export providers, says some documentation obstacles persist for U.S. exporters. Heller provides that as a result of the meals security and inspection programs within the U.S. and Canada are so comparable, purple meat commerce between the 2 nations may very well be additional streamlined. USMEF is working with {industry} companions such because the Meat Institute to develop suggestions that would simplify regulatory processes and assist bolster U.S. exports to Canada.

Final 12 months US pork exports to Canada totaled almost 220,000 metric tons

That makes Canada the fourth largest marketplace for U.S. pork, with export worth topping $875 million. By Might of this 12 months, pork exports are barely beneath final 12 months’s tempo in quantity (85,500 MT) and regular in worth ($338 million). U.S. beef exports to Canada totaled 103,500 metric tons in 2023, rating fifth amongst U.S. export markets, with export worth additionally totaling about $875 million. By Might of this 12 months, beef exports are up 8% in worth ($353 million) regardless of a 5% decline in quantity (slightly below 40,000 metric tons).

Massachusetts’ Q3 pork legislation survives {industry} court docket problem

A federal choose on Monday rejected an industry-backed bid to dam enforcement of a Massachusetts legislation banning the sale of pork from pigs stored in tightly confined areas, saying a federal legislation governing slaughterhouses doesn’t preempt it. U.S. District Choose William Younger in Boston rejected arguments by Missouri-based pork producer Triumph Meals and out-of-state hogs farmers that the state legislation conflicted with a federal legislation regulating slaughterhouse inspections. The pork producers argued the Federal Meat Inspection Act preempted the state’s legislation as a result of it created further, completely different necessities on how pigs are to be dealt with than the federal legislation supplied. However Younger mentioned Massachusetts’ legislation does not more than ban the sale of non-compliant pork meat and doesn’t regulate how a slaughterhouse itself operates. This ruling represents a big victory for animal welfare advocates and supporters of the Massachusetts legislation. Nonetheless, it additionally highlights the continued authorized challenges confronted by state-level animal welfare laws within the context of interstate commerce and federal rules.

US cattle on feed report: placements lower than anticipated

USDA estimated the massive feedlot (1,000-plus head) stock at 11.304 million head as of July 1, up 61,000 head (0.5%) from year-ago, although 23,000 head lower than the common pre-report estimate implied. June placements declined 6.8%, whereas marketings dropped 8.7% – each falling greater than anticipated – particularly placements. The info is comparatively impartial, although the placements quantity might entice some shopping for in deferred stay cattle futures.

China to probe EU pork for anti-dumping utilizing sampling methodology

China has put three corporations from the European Union on the middle of its anti-dumping investigation into pork merchandise from the bloc. Beijing has chosen Danish Crown A/S, Vion Boxtel BV, and Litera Meat S.L.U. — the highest three exporters of pork merchandise within the area to China — to find out if dumping has occurred and assess the injury to the home sector, the commerce ministry mentioned. The investigation, which started June 17, will look into pork and its by-products imported from the EU after the bloc determined to impose anti-subsidy duties on Chinese language electrical automobiles.

China’s June pork imports proceed to lag sharply from year-ago

China imported 90,000 MT of pork in June, up 12.5% from Might however 33.5% lower than final 12 months. By the primary half of 2024, China’s pork imports totaled 520,000 MT, down 45.3% from the identical interval final 12 months.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (7/19) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $3.0750. The weekly common for Grade AA is $3.1140 (-0.0010). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.9125 and 40# blocks at $1.8650. The weekly common for barrels is $1.8980 (-0.0140) and blocks $1.8630 (-0.0855). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1975. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1795 (-0.0010). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.5175. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.5055 (+0.0085).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Within the West, home butter demand varies from regular to lighter. For the Central area, home butter demand is barely down. Within the East, home butter demand is regular for retail and regular to lighter for meals service. Cream volumes are typically tighter all through the nation. Within the Southwest, handlers indicated fats elements in milk output are reducing. Nonetheless, some week-over-week will increase in cream availability for the Central area have been famous. Within the Northeast, roads and bridges broken by Hurricane Beryl created some transportation difficulties. Butter manufacturing schedules are combined. Bulk butter overages vary from minus 4 to 10 cents above market, throughout all areas.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing schedules fluctuate from regular to lighter all through the U.S. Contacts within the East word cheese manufacturing varies from space to space. Bridge and street injury sustained throughout Hurricane Beryl affected some milk deliveries, and cheese manufacturing in sure locales was quieter than in latest weeks. Cheese producers within the Central area relay regular manufacturing schedules. Milk suppliers say cheesemakers are actively searching for out spot milk masses. Spot milk costs have been reported at $1-under to $1.50- over Class III. Cheese demand is regular to lighter, as some contacts say clients are ready for a possible dip in cheese costs. Cheese availability ranges from balanced to tighter. Cheese processors within the West additionally share regular to lighter manufacturing. Milk availability is waning seasonally, however producers have shared they’re able to discover spot a great deal of milk to fulfill manufacturing wants. Cheese inventories are broadly obtainable all through the area.

FLUID MILK: Milk output is trending seasonally decrease all through many of the nation. Class I demand can also be in a seasonal lull, as college districts are within the midst of their summer time hiatus. Hurricane Beryl created some setbacks for milk haulers within the East area, as flooding and street closures have been reported in Vermont and New Hampshire. Cheesemakers within the Midwest reported a slight atypical uptick in availability shifting deeper into the summer time months, however solely barely. Central Cheesemakers reported spot milk costs from $1.00-under to $1.50-over Class III. Condensed skim availability has tightened in latest weeks, notably within the East. Cream multiples, for probably the most half, have been regular to increased, though Central area butter processors mentioned they acquired barely extra spot market volumes from inside the area this week in comparison with week 28. Ice cream manufacturing remains to be considerably energetic shifting later into the height manufacturing season. Cream multiples vary from 1.30 – 1.50 within the East, 1.21 – 1.38 within the Midwest, and 1.12– 1.39 within the West.

DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs have been combined this week, as they moved decrease within the Central/East areas, whereas they have been regular to increased within the West. As condensed skim availability decreases, manufacturing/availability are anticipated to proceed their seasonal downturns. Excessive warmth NDM costs have been regular within the Central and East, whereas shifting decrease within the West. Dry buttermilk costs held regular in all areas. Drying exercise is mostly restricted, as butter churning charges, regardless of some slight upticks within the Central area, are shifting decrease on the entire. Dry entire milk costs have been unchanged from week 28, as inventories are famous as very tight. Dry whey costs have been regular to increased in all areas. Demand is considerably sluggish, however inventories are famous as regular to tight relying on the top utilization objective. Model most well-liked volumes of dry whey are noticeably cosy, whereas interchangeable masses are nonetheless obtainable. Whey protein focus 34% costs are regular to increased, as processors proceed channeling whey solids into manufacturing of excessive[1]protein concentrates. Lactose costs have been combined. Home demand for lactose is considerably hearty, notably for higher-mesh varieties. Acid casein costs have been regular to increased, whereas rennet casein costs have been unchanged. Spot demand for rennet casein is quieter within the European Union.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: WEST EUROPE: As anticipated, seasonal milk declines are going down throughout West Europe. That mentioned, milk manufacturing ranges are typically above that of final 12 months. In response to CLAL information made obtainable to USDA, Might 2024 EU cows’ milk delivered to dairies is up in comparison with final 12 months. Yr-to-date EU cows’ milk delivered to dairies by Might 2024 is up when in comparison with January-Might 2023 EU milk manufacturing. Poor climate resulted in a weak begin to the milk manufacturing season in Eire and the UK. Milk volumes throughout the regular peak of spring flush have been beneath these of final 12 months. Extra just lately, enhancements in climate and grass development charges have helped bolster milk output. First cuttings of hay are regarded as at good ranges, and relying on future climate patterns, hay harvest and milk output ought to match extra intently to typical output ranges.

EAST EUROPE: Milk manufacturing throughout East Europe continues to point out sturdy output development. The January – Might 2024 provisional milk manufacturing in Belarus is up from January – Might 2023. The European Fee reviews the Mixed Drought Indicator (CDI) for late June 2024 indicators warning drought circumstances for components of East Europe, together with Poland, the Balkans, and components of Romania and the Baltic States. Warning circumstances counsel that drought circumstances exist which are negatively affecting crops and vegetation.

AUSTRALIA: Dairy Australia just lately launched export information displaying milk export volumes from July 2023 – Might 2024 have been down p.c from the identical time interval a 12 months earlier. April 2024 milk gross sales have been up from April 2023. Milk gross sales from the beginning of the season in July by April 2024 have been up in comparison with the identical time interval a 12 months earlier. The June 2024 Manufacturing Inputs Monitor from Dairy Australia acknowledged drier than regular climate was current throughout most of the dairy areas throughout June, contributing to stronger demand for supplementary feed.

NEW ZEALAND: A gaggle in New Zealand, which forecasts dairy costs, decreased the forecasted milk value for the 2024/2025 season, following GDT occasion 360. The group defined that the outcomes of GDT occasion 360 have been bearish general for milk costs. Not too long ago launched information from New Zealand for Might confirmed the variety of dairy cows despatched to slaughter throughout the month was up from Might 2023. From the beginning of 2024 by Might, cow slaughter numbers are up from the identical time in 2023.

SOUTH AMERICA: Contacts counsel seasonal milk upticks are but to be notable. An intensely moist fall season, which introduced flooding and rainfall to key dairy areas all through the continent, has turn into a hotter/dryer winter. One optimistic word, in response to analysts, is that dryness is permitting for a well timed corn harvest. As operational prices have been a looming concern for dairy farmers and the dairy {industry}, on the entire, a rise in high quality forage/silage is anticipated to assist stabilize some dairy farm prices within the near-term.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Typical and natural dairy adverts elevated. Apart from cream cheese, complete adverts for all reported standard commodities elevated this week in comparison with the prior week. Cheese remained within the high spot as probably the most marketed dairy commodity. Typical ice cream was additionally closely represented in dairy adverts. Typical ice cream adverts elevated this week. Yogurt was the third most marketed standard diary commodity and high marketed natural dairy commodity. When it comes to advert numbers, bitter cream was extra prevalent than milk this week.