Livestock analyst JIm Wyckoff stories on this week’s world protein information
30 August 2024
12 minute learn
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Web US gross sales of 17,200 MT for 2024 have been up 8 % from the earlier week, however down 4 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase have been primarily for Japan (5,400 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), China (3,300 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (1,900 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Web gross sales of 200 MT for 2025 have been reported for the Philippines (100 MT) and Japan (100 MT). Exports of 14,800 MT have been up 18 % from the earlier week and a pair of % from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to South Korea (3,500 MT), Japan (3,100 MT), China (2,700 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,300 MT).
Pork: Web US gross sales of 42,200 MT for 2024 have been up noticeably from the earlier week and up 59 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (13,800 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), China (11,500 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (6,900 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), Colombia (2,400 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Japan (2,000 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), have been offset by reductions for unknown locations (100 MT). Exports of 29,300 MT have been up 2 % from the earlier week, however down 3 % from the prior 4-week common. The locations have been primarily to Mexico (13,900 MT), Japan (3,600 MT), Colombia (2,400 MT), China (2,100 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT).
USDA to conduct area trials for vaccines geared toward stopping H5N1 from infecting US dairy cows
Whereas 4 vaccines are licensed for avian influenza, none are accredited for the present pressure. USDA’s trials, which started in April, are nonetheless in progress, with the company contemplating subsequent steps, together with vaccine manufacturing if profitable. Issues embody the speedy mutation of the virus, potential vaccine efficacy, and the danger of shedding export markets as a consequence of issue distinguishing vaccinated from contaminated birds. USDA stresses biosecurity as the first protection towards the outbreak. USDA’s Heart for Veterinary Biologics is now accepting submissions for area research that would result in conditional or full licensure of nonviable, non-replicating vaccines. This marks a shift from earlier necessities that each one research, even these not involving virus challenges, be carried out in containment services. Apart from conventional vaccine growth, there may be additionally curiosity in mRNA vaccines, just like these used for Covid-19, that are being examined for his or her efficacy in each animals and people.
NPPC launches Younger Pork Advocates program to empower future business leaders
The Nationwide Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has launched the “Younger Pork Advocates” Strategic Funding Program for people aged 18-22. Unveiled on the 2024 World Pork Expo, this system goals to empower younger advocates within the pork business by offering networking alternatives, coverage updates, advocacy coaching, and extra. The initiative highlights NPPC’s dedication to equipping future business leaders with the abilities and connections wanted to drive constructive change. Membership advantages embody entry to business occasions, scholarships, {and professional} growth alternatives.
Moreover, the “Younger Pork Advocates Points Meet,” a talking competitors for younger folks aged 17-22, was additionally launched on the World Pork Expo. This competitors inspired individuals to have interaction in discussions about urgent points within the pork business and devise options. The competitors concluded with Emma Kuhns profitable a $2,500 scholarship and a visit to Washington, D.C., for the NPPC’s fall legislative fly-in.
HPAI confirmed in Michigan dairy herd
Extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been confirmed in a Michigan dairy herd, marking the nation’s first detection in virtually two weeks. This brings Michigan’s complete affected dairy herds to twenty-eight.
US beef imports surged in 2024 as a consequence of record-high cattle costs and smallest home herd since Fifties
From January to June 2024, reside cattle imports elevated by 19%, with 1.12 million animals imported, primarily from Mexico. Imports of recent/chilled and frozen beef additionally noticed important development, rising by 11% and 29%, respectively. Tight home provides and excessive costs are driving the rise in overseas acquisitions, with Mexico, Canada, and Brazil being key suppliers. Because the U.S. cattle herd continues to say no, beef imports are anticipated to stay elevated.
USDA Cattle on Feed Report barely unfavorable
USDA estimated there have been 11.095 million head of cattle in giant US feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of Aug. 1, up 31,000 head (0.3%) from year-ago, 65,000 head greater than analysts anticipated. July placements elevated 5.8% (3.2% enhance anticipated), whereas marketings rose 7.7% (8.1% enhance anticipated).
Supportive US frozen meat shares knowledge
USDA’s Chilly Storage Report Friday afternoon confirmed US beef shares in frozen storage on the finish of July at 407.1 million lbs., down 799,000 lbs. from June, whereas the five-year common was a ten.8-million-lb. enhance through the month. Beef shares declined 3.3 million lbs. (0.8%) from year-ago and have been 36.4 million lbs. (8.2%) lower than the five-year common. Pork shares totaled 450.7 million lbs., down 24.2 million lbs. from June, far higher than the five-year common 7.2-million-lb. decline for the month. Frozen pork inventories fell 20.1 million lbs. (4.3%) from final yr and have been 51.5 million lbs. (10.3%) beneath the five-year common.
USDA stories countervailing responsibility investigation initiated on sure EU dairy merchandise going to China
On August 21, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) of the Folks’s Republic of China (PRC) introduced that it had initiated an anti-subsidy (i.e., countervailing responsibility or CVD) investigation on imports of sure dairy merchandise originating from the European Union. Dairy merchandise beneath the investigation embody all cheese merchandise and sure milk and cream merchandise.
Sure dairy merchandise beneath the investigation embody recent cheese (together with whey cheese) and curd, processed cheese (whether or not or not grated or powdered), blue cheese and different cheese with texture produced by Penicillium roqueforti, different unlisted cheeses, milk and cream that aren’t concentrated and never added with sugar or different sweetening substances (with the fats content material exceeding 10 % by weight). Merchandise included within the investigation are categorized within the Customs Import and Export Tariff Guide of the Folks’s Republic of China beneath choose harmonized tariff system: Milk and cream exceeding 10 % fats by weight. Recent cheese. Cheese grated. Cheese processed, not grated. Cheese, blue-veined. Cheese, besides recent.
New York legal professional basic Letitia James sues JBS USA
JBS USA is the American arm of the world’s largest meatpacker, for allegedly making deceptive claims about its efforts to scale back greenhouse fuel emissions. The lawsuit, which challenges JBS’s assertions that it’s going to obtain net-zero emissions by 2040, is a major setback as the corporate pursues an inventory on the New York Inventory Alternate. The swimsuit accuses JBS of “greenwashing” by making misleading statements about its environmental impression in advertisements and public statements, together with claims made by CEO Gilberto Tomazoni throughout a New York Instances occasion. The Nationwide Promoting Assessment Board had already discovered JBS’s net-zero claims deceptive final yr.
JBS, already beneath scrutiny for its environmental practices and previous corruption scandals, disputes the allegations and states it stays dedicated to lowering agriculture’s environmental impression. The lawsuit might additional complicate JBS’s enterprise plans, together with its delayed NYSE itemizing, and serves as a broader warning to firms relating to the intense penalties of deceptive environmental claims.
Animal illnesses trigger $96 million annual loss in U.S. soybean exports
Animal illnesses have important financial impacts past the fast lack of livestock, affecting associated industries just like the U.S. soybean market, which is essential for animal feed, based on evaluation by Southern Ag Immediately (SAT). Current research present that world outbreaks of animal illnesses result in appreciable losses in soybean export potential, with a median of over $96 million misplaced yearly as a consequence of decreased demand for soymeal, a major protein supply in animal feed. The U.S., the second-largest soybean exporter globally, has traditionally equipped key markets resembling China, Mexico, and Japan.
SAT writers say these findings spotlight the necessity for policymakers to think about the broader results of animal illness outbreaks on upstream industries like soybean manufacturing. Present animal well being insurance policies primarily concentrate on compensating livestock producers, however they don’t adequately deal with the ripple results on suppliers, resembling the extra prices incurred by grain producers as a consequence of prolonged storage or high quality losses. Enhancing provide chain resilience within the face of animal illnesses must be a precedence to mitigate these wider financial impacts.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (8/23) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $3.1300. The weekly common for Grade AA is $3.1590 (+0.0180). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $2.1000 and 40# blocks at $2.0375. The weekly common for barrels is $2.2250 (+0.0410) and blocks $2.0820 (+0.0325). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2825. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.2790 (+0.0410). DRY WHEY: Additional grade dry whey closed at $0.5650. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.5610 (+0.0020).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Within the West, home butter demand varies from regular to stronger. For the Central area, home butter demand is strengthening. Within the East, home butter demand is unchanged. Cream volumes are tight within the East and Central areas. Though cream provides within the West are looser and extra balanced comparatively, stakeholders within the area don’t describe cream volumes as extreme both. Butter manufacturing paces fluctuate from regular to weaker. Many producers are counting on contracted cream masses to maintain churns shifting. Some butter makers convey unsalted butter shares out there for spot patrons are tight. Bulk butter overages vary from minus 7 to 10 cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing is trending seasonally regular to lighter all through the U.S. Milk availability stays tight within the East. Milk out there for Class III processors is constrained by Class I pulls for colleges, and cheese manufacturing stays gentle within the area. Contacts anticipate extra spot milk availability after Labor Day. Retail demand is regular. Cheesemakers within the Central area relay regular cheese demand. Contacts share demand for barrels stays sturdy, however spot load availability is uncommon. Spot milk availability, too, is restricted and settled at $2.25 to $3-over Class III. Cheese manufacturing is blended within the West. Some processors relay elevated manufacturing whereas others observe tight spot milk availability is slowing manufacturing. Contacts observe cheese inventories fluctuate all through the area.
FLUID MILK: Fluid milk and cream manufacturing is blended throughout the USA. Regular to barely elevated milk manufacturing is being reported within the Higher Midwest, Pacific Northwest, and California’s Central Valley. In these areas, low temperatures within the higher 60s and highs within the 70s have made an impression. Milk volumes within the the rest of the nation are nonetheless reducing week to week. Temperatures throughout the south from the excessive 80s to triple-digits proceed to have an effect on cow consolation and stifle milk manufacturing. Milk output within the Northeast stays tight regardless of cooler temperatures introduced by rain and cloud cowl from Hurricane Ernesto. Sturdy winds and flooding pose transportation obstacles that linger as Ernesto makes its approach into the North Atlantic. Spot milk availability has not loosened and demand from Class I has elevated in all areas. Peak season bottling orders have elevated as college schedules choose up for the autumn semester. Some processors don’t count on any aid within the spot market till after Labor Day. Spot milk costs reported ranged from $2.25 – $3-over Class III. Milk retailers state condensed skim availability is minimal. Condensed skim demand is regular within the East and Midwest whereas demand is stronger within the West. Cream accessibility is following milk, with tightness holding masses close by to meet regional contract wants. Spot masses for finish customers are practically nonexistent within the Midwest. Some patrons within the Midwest have been turned down by West cream sellers as contract orders soak up what is offered. Cream multiples are 1.36 – 1.52 within the East, 1.29 – 1.45 within the Midwest, and 1.18 – 1.33 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs elevated in all areas. Tightening availability and slight demand will increase are culminating to create agency markets for NDM. Dry buttermilk costs have been regular to greater within the nation this week. Within the West, extra buttermilk solids are anticipated to develop into out there for drying within the near-term. Dry complete milk costs have been barely greater this week, as energetic bottling for varsity milk is holding a pinch on availability for drying. Dry whey value actions have been blended by the nation, however basic market sentiment is regular. Volumes of dry whey are tightening together with milk provides for Class III manufacturing. Whey protein focus 34% costs elevated, as prospects say out there spot masses are troublesome to seek out in latest weeks. Lactose costs have been regular to greater, as some producers are offered out by the remainder of Q3. Acid and rennet casein costs have been unchanged. Lighter milk output in Europe is limiting casein output on the continent.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: New natural requirements established by the USDA with the up to date Natural Livestock and Poultry Requirements purpose to enhance animal therapy on natural farms. Licensed natural operations should meet compliance with the brand new guidelines by January 2, 2025. The Natural Integrity Studying Heart is providing a brand new course, the Natural Livestock and Poultry Requirements (OLPS) Ultimate Rule Core Course, which was created to show certifiers, inspectors, and producers about up to date USDA natural regulation necessities established by the OLPS last rule. Federal Milk Market Order 1, in New England, reported utilization of natural milk by pool vegetation throughout July 2024, utilization of each natural complete and lowered fats milk was up from the earlier yr. The retail advert survey contained an all-time excessive for natural dairy advertisements throughout final week’s retail survey, however the complete variety of natural dairy advertisements declined within the week 34 survey.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Standard dairy advertisements decreased by 2 % and natural dairy advertisements decreased by 79 % this week. Standard 6–8-ounce packages of sliced, shredded and block cheese have weighted common marketed costs of $2.52, $2.45, and $2.31, respectively. The weighted common marketed value for ice cream in a 48–64-ounce container was $4.01, which represents a 33- cent lower from final week. The weighted common marketed costs for standard Greek yogurt in 4–6-ounce containers and 32-ounce containers have been $1.08 and $4.09, respectively. Standard gallon containers of milk and half gallon containers of milk had weighted common marketed costs of $3.33 and $2.17, respectively. The natural premium for a half gallon container of milk this week is $2.86.
JULY MILK PRODUCTION (NASS): Milk manufacturing within the 24 main States throughout July totaled 18.2 billion kilos, down 0.2 % from July 2023. June revised manufacturing, at 17.9 billion kilos, was down 1.5 % from June 2023. The June revision represented a lower of 137 million kilos or 0.8 % from final month’s preliminary manufacturing estimate. Manufacturing per cow within the 24 main States averaged 2,047 kilos for July, 2 kilos above July 2023. The variety of milk cows on farms within the 24 main States was 8.88 million head, 31,000 head lower than July 2023, however 3,000 head greater than June 2024.
JUNE 2024 MILK SALES (FMMO): Whole Fluid Merchandise Gross sales 3.2 billion kilos of packaged fluid milk merchandise have been shipped by milk handlers in June 2024. This was 2.9 % decrease than a yr earlier. Estimated gross sales of complete standard fluid milk merchandise decreased 3.4 % from June 2023 and estimated gross sales of complete natural fluid milk merchandise elevated 4.4 % from a yr earlier.
