Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reviews on world protein information
18 October 2024
15 minute learn
HPAI circumstances rise in US dairy and poultry, impacting 2.76 million birds previous 30 days
Extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues to unfold, with 97 dairy herd circumstances reported in California and Idaho over the previous 30 days. On the poultry facet, 2.76 million birds throughout three western states have been affected, together with main outbreaks in Utah and Washington. Because the outbreak started in February 2022, HPAI has hit 1,180 flocks throughout 48 states, affecting 103.47 million birds.
U.S. Labor Dept. probes underage employee claims at Tyson vegetation in Arkansas
The U.S. Division of Labor is conducting an ongoing investigation into claims of underage staff at two Tyson Meals vegetation in Arkansas. This comes after courtroom paperwork unsealed within the Western District of Arkansas revealed accusations of kid labor violations at Tyson processing services.
Particular allegations. A trainer at a faculty close to the Rogers, Arkansas plant reported {that a} 14-year-old scholar mentioned working on the Tyson facility for the summer season. For the Inexperienced Forest, Arkansas plant, a mom overheard kids between 11-13 years previous discussing working night time shifts from 11 PM to 7-8 AM. Investigators noticed “a number of people whose look and physique language indicated had been doubtlessly minor staff under the age of 16 at each places.
California reviews 5 extra potential human H5N1 circumstances
California is investigating 5 potential human circumstances of the H5N1 virus amongst dairy farm staff, along with the six circumstances beforehand confirmed within the state. The potential and confirmed circumstances originated on 9 totally different dairy farms and the people had delicate signs and weren’t hospitalized, the state stated.
China’s meat imports stay weak
China imported 541,000 MT of meat throughout September, down 24,000 MT (4.2%) from August and 54,000 MT (9.1%) lower than final yr. By the primary 9 months of the yr, China imported 4.94 MMT of meat merchandise, down 770,000 MT (13.5%) from the identical interval final yr.
FDA: Livestock antimicrobial gross sales drop to second lowest in a decade
Gross sales of antimicrobials for livestock use reached 24 million kilos in 2023, marking the second-lowest complete in a decade, in accordance with the FDA). The decline follows regulatory efforts to scale back the usage of these medication to advertise animal progress, aiming to protect their effectiveness for treating human illnesses. Gross sales of medically vital antimicrobials, corresponding to tetracyclines and penicillins, fell by 2% final yr and have dropped 37% since their peak in 2015. World efforts to fight antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are intensifying, with the UN calling for a major discount in agricultural antimicrobial use by 2030.
USDA annual report on world livestock and commerce
Beef and veal
World manufacturing in 2025 is forecast down 1 p.c to 60.9 million tons as declines in Brazil, the EU, and the US greater than offset will increase in Argentina, Australia, India, and Mexico. Australia manufacturing is anticipated to rise 2 p.c to a file 2.6 million tons as elevated world demand, notably from the US, helps larger slaughter. Carcass weights are anticipated to say no as feminine cattle slaughter will increase to satisfy export calls for. Elevated Argentina manufacturing is pushed by larger worldwide demand and newly applied home insurance policies, which search to incentivize shipments by lowering export taxes on sure beef merchandise. Manufacturing in Brazil is forecast to say no 1 p.c to 11.8 million tons as herd contraction continues for a second consecutive yr. EU manufacturing is anticipated to say no 2 p.c as the mix of financial headwinds and an unsure regulatory atmosphere continues to disincentivize funding in an already constrained cattle sector. World exports in 2025 are forecast nearly unchanged to 12.9 million tons as decrease exports from Canada, the EU, and the US offset higher shipments from Argentina, Australia, and India. Excluding the US, world exports are anticipated to extend 1 p.c. Brazil and Australia, the world’s two main exporters, will seize elevated market share on the expense of the US and the EU, the place beef manufacturing is anticipated to say no. Australia exports are anticipated to rise 2 p.c to a file 1.9 million tons as tight U.S. provides and decrease manufacturing will improve the demand for beef imports, of which Australia is a major provider. World demand in 2025 can also be supported by a 1-percent improve in China imports in addition to small beneficial properties by South Korea, Taiwan, and the UK. U.S. manufacturing and exports: U.S. beef manufacturing is forecast down 4 p.c on tighter cattle inventories. The decline in manufacturing, particularly lean processing beef, coupled with ample exportable provides in key markets – corresponding to Argentina, Australia, and Brazil – will spur import progress. Imports are forecast to rise 1 p.c to a file of two.0 million tons. Exports are forecast 12 p.c decrease to 1.2 million tons on tight home provides and competitors from Australia, notably in East Asia.
Pork
World manufacturing in 2025 is forecast down 1 p.c to 115.1 million tons as decrease manufacturing in China and the European Union greater than offsets manufacturing progress in the US, Vietnam, and Brazil. Vietnam pork manufacturing is forecast 3 p.c larger to three.8 million tons on anticipated herd enlargement because the swine sector consolidates and improves administration of African swine fever (ASF). Brazil manufacturing is forecast 1 p.c larger to 4.6 million tons on sturdy export demand and easing enter prices. Regardless of improved sector profitability in 2024, China pork manufacturing is forecast 2 p.c decrease in 2025 to 55.5 million tons. Lowered sow inventories in 2024 are anticipated to yield fewer animals accessible for slaughter in 2025. Moreover, China shopper demand for pork is anticipated to stay weak given continued financial uncertainty and the rising shopper desire for poultry. European Union manufacturing is forecast 2 p.c decrease to twenty.9 million tons resulting from anticipated decrease hog costs. World exports are forecast to extend 1 p.c to 10.4 million tons in 2025 as export progress from the US and Canada offsets decrease exports from the EU. Canada exports are forecast 1 p.c larger to 1.5 million tons with steady demand from the US and continued progress to a number of Asian markets, together with Japan and South Korea. EU exports are forecast 2 p.c decrease to 2.95 million tons given anticipated decrease accessible provides for export and ongoing ASF-related commerce restrictions. U.S. manufacturing and exports: U.S. manufacturing is forecast 2 p.c larger in 2025 to 12.9 million tons on progress in slaughter and pigs per litter. Improved sector profitability in 2024 and decreased feed prices are anticipated to proceed to assist heavier hog weights. U.S. exports are forecast to extend 3 p.c in 2025 to three.4 million tons given ample home provides and powerful export worth competitiveness. Regardless of elevated competitors from Brazil, Mexico will stay a core marketplace for U.S. exports. Moreover, U.S. exports are anticipated acquire market share from the EU in South Korea and Australia.
Hen meat
World manufacturing is forecast practically 2 p.c larger in 2025 to a file 104.9 million tons. Manufacturing beneficial properties are forecast for many nations with the biggest will increase anticipated for China, the US, Turkey, the EU, Brazil, and Mexico. Growth is supported by a modest enchancment in feed costs and on shopper demand spurred by financial progress. A big manufacturing improve in China will allow its return to being the world’s largest producer. China demand can be generated primarily from white broilers as producers reply to demand drivers and as customers might substitute broiler meat rather than pork. China yellow broiler manufacturing, primarily bought in moist markets, will stay stagnant. Turkish manufacturing is forecast to rise on steady home demand and elevated shipments as authorities exports restrictions are lifted. Brazil’s file excessive forecast is supported by sturdy international demand and decrease anticipated manufacturing prices. World exports are forecast 2 p.c larger in 2025 to a file 13.8 million tons following comparatively stagnant commerce in 2023 and 2024. Financial progress is anticipated to drive reasonable consumption progress as hen stays a lower-cost animal protein which appeals to middle-income customers. Whereas all main exporters (Brazil, the US, the EU, and Thailand) will publish beneficial properties, Brazil will seize the biggest share of progress because it is ready to service and be price-competitive within the largest progress markets (Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, the UAE, and the UK). Reductions in extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related restrictions will assist elevated EU exports to varied markets though the UK will stay the biggest marketplace for the EU. Thailand exports can be supported by progress in cooked hen, notably to the EU, Japan, and the UK. U.S. manufacturing and exports: U.S. manufacturing is anticipated to rise 2 p.c to a file 21.7 million tons in 2025 as feed costs proceed modest declines together with the belief of no vital illness outbreaks. Elevated manufacturing will assist a slight increase in exports that are forecast 1 p.c larger to three.1 million tons on progress in shipments to Mexico and Canada. Nevertheless, U.S. shipments to smaller, non[1]conventional, and price-sensitive markets might decline on elevated competitors from Brazil. Regardless of the rise, U.S. export volumes will proceed to stay under pre-HPAI ranges.
August pork exports surpass earlier yr; beef exports decline
US pork exports in August confirmed a rise in comparison with the earlier yr, pushed by sturdy demand from Mexico. In line with knowledge from USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), beef exports skilled a decline, whereas lamb exports noticed an uptick, reaching their highest quantity since January.
Pork exports. August pork exports totaled 238,989 metric tons (mt), marking a 6% improve from the earlier yr. The export worth rose by 8% to $702.9 million. Key highlights embody:
• Robust efficiency in Western Hemisphere: Exports to Central and South America, the Caribbean, and the ASEAN area confirmed constructive developments.
• File-breaking shipments: Malaysia obtained record-high shipments, whereas exports to Colombia achieved a worth file.
• 12 months-to-date figures: From January via August, pork exports reached practically 2 million mt, up 4% from the earlier yr, with a 7% improve in worth to $5.68 billion.
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom famous the significance of defending market share and increasing consumption in more and more aggressive markets.
Beef exports. Beef exports in August confirmed a downward development:
• Whole quantity: 102,682 mt, down 6% from the earlier yr and the bottom since January.
• Export worth: $845.9 million, a 4% lower.
• Blended efficiency: Whereas exports to Mexico, Taiwan, the Center East, and the ASEAN area elevated, decrease shipments to Japan, South Korea, and China/Hong Kong offset these beneficial properties.
• 12 months-to-date figures: By August, beef exports had been 3% under the earlier yr at 856,834 mt, however 4% larger in worth at slightly below $7 billion.
Halstrom acknowledged the challenges in Asian markets however expressed optimism concerning the ongoing tourism rebound within the area.
Lamb exports. Lamb exports confirmed a constructive development, reaching their highest quantity since January. Exports of U.S. lamb reached 288 mt in August, up 170% from final yr’s low quantity. Export worth was $1.16 million, up 70%. These outcomes drove January-August exports 20% above final yr’s tempo in quantity (1,946 MT) and 23% larger in worth ($10.2 million). Whereas bigger shipments to the Caribbean and Mexico accounted for many of this progress, exports additionally trended larger year-over-year to the Philippines, Canada, Guatemala and Taiwan.
USDA weekly dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (10/11) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.6250 The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.6610 (-0.0595). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8875 and 40# blocks at $1.8875. The weekly common for barrels is $1.8890 (-0.2150) and blocks $1.9240 (-0.1125). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3525. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.3540 (-0.0005). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.5950. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.6000 (-0.0030).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Within the East area, home demand for butter is regular. Within the Central area, home butter demand is stronger. Within the West area, home butter demand varies from regular to lighter. Stakeholders all through the nation convey some patrons are holding again from buying, ready to see if butter costs may regulate decrease. Cream volumes are available throughout the nation. In some circumstances, butter makers are turning down spot cream affords resulting from being at processing capability. Some components of Japanese U.S. proceed to face transportation challenges. Butter manufactures notice sturdy or regular manufacturing paces. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to eight cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing stays various all through the U.S. Within the East, contacts share cheese manufacturing stays seasonally regular to lighter. Cheese inventories are ample to satisfy demand. Foodservice demand has picked up barely. Cheesemakers within the Central area relay regular to lively manufacturing schedules. Milk availability stays considerably tight, and spot milk costs had been reported at $0.50 to $3.50 above Class III. Contacts share calls for for cheddar and Italian fashion cheeses are regular. Within the West, contacts relay milk volumes are available for Class III processors. Manufacturing schedules vary from regular to stronger. Cheese demand is various. Some patrons share hesitancy over buying extra spot hundreds.
FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk volumes are blended all through the nation. The Central area is experiencing seasonally steady milk output on the farm degree, and element ranges (protein and fats) are being reported as sturdy. Class I milk demand is steady at present ranges. Spot milk costs are regular to sturdy. This week’s spot milk worth vary was $0.50 – $3.50 over Class. Cream is abundantly accessible within the Central area. Butter makers are suggesting they’re now reserving cream at flat multiples for fall and winter. Milk volumes within the West are various. California is seeing decrease volumes however convey element ranges are larger than the earlier yr. Demand for all Courses is regular. Arizona and New Mexico are seeing regular milk manufacturing on the farm degree. Spot a great deal of milk can be found, and demand for all Courses continues to be regular. Milk output is stronger within the mountain states and the Pacific Northwest, the place cooler temperatures are contributing to cow consolation. Milk volumes are assembly the wants of producing, and there may be sturdy Class I and II demand for milk. Class III and IV demand is regular. Cream is broadly accessible all through the area. Within the East, milk manufacturing is blended. Regular output is coming from Northeast farms. There may be sturdy demand for Class I and regular demand from Class II and III. Cream volumes are stated to be snug. Spot a great deal of condensed skim have gotten extra accessible throughout the US, and demand is regular. Contacts within the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic relay interruptions in manufacturing and operations, however sturdy cream volumes proceed to occupy their churns. Some Florida processing plant operators deliberate for short-term closures earlier than the landfall of Hurricane Milton. FOB cream multiples for all Courses are 1.25-1.37 within the East, 1.19-1.34 within the Midwest, and 1.08-1.27 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs had been regular to larger within the Central/East areas, whereas shifting decrease within the West. Availability has ticked larger within the West however is famous as balanced to even tight within the Central area. Dry buttermilk costs had been regular within the Central and East, whereas pushing larger within the West. Curiosity for dry buttermilk in This autumn is considerably anticipated to select up as baking season strikes into larger gears. Dry whey costs had been regular within the Central and West, whereas ticking larger within the East. Dry whey is mostly seen as tight, some contacts are starting to counsel volumes are being supplied extra commonly in current weeks. Lactose costs had been regular to barely larger. Whey protein focus 34% costs obtained one other bullish bump this week, as processors say processing is proscribed, and extra whey solids proceed to maneuver into larger protein concentrations. Dry entire milk costs moved decrease, regardless of usually restricted manufacturing exercise. Rennet and acid casein costs had been unchanged on regular/quiet market exercise.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS:Â
WEST EUROPE: Milk manufacturing is variable all through West Europe. International locations like Germany and Eire are nonetheless witnessing seasonally lighter milk manufacturing, whereas others like France and the UK are seeing will increase in weekly milk deliveries. The European Fee launched the biannual Brief-Time period Outlook for EU Agricultural Markets in 2024 report on October 8. The report outlines predicted milk deliveries are set to extend 0.5 p.c general in 2024 regardless of a 0.3 p.c lower in dairy herds. A big multinational dairy firm introduced plans to chop milk purchases in France to mood publicity to worldwide commodity costs. The corporate plans to chop milk collections by 450 million liters, roughly 9 p.c of its annual milk consumption. This minimize in milk purchases is slated to begin on the finish of the yr and progress via 2030.
EAST EUROPE: Though milk manufacturing in East Europe continues alongside seasonal declines, business sources counsel that milk collections in August 2024 exceeded these of August 2023 in a lot of East Europe. The July 2024 milk assortment volumes throughout East Europe had been largely under these of July 2023. As of mid[1]September, drought warning situations prolonged throughout a lot of southern components of East Europe and southeastern Poland into the Baltic States. Persistent drought situations within the Balkans and Black Sea area have considerably impacted pasture and crop manufacturing.
OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: In line with Dairy Australia, August 2024 milk manufacturing was up from August 2023. August 2024 milk manufacturing was up from the prior yr in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia. In the meantime, milk manufacturing was down in Queensland, Western Australia, and Tasmania. In Australia, a number of grocery store chains, which account for almost all of retail grocery store gross sales within the nation, have decreased costs for retailer model milk by 5 cents per liter. A dairy farming group’s spokesperson said farmgate milk costs are at present close to the price of manufacturing and the cheaper price will add deflationary stress to farmgate milk costs. An Australian dairy firm not too long ago introduced a partnership with a U.S. cheese firm to construct a processing facility in Victoria. NEW ZEALAND: A New Zealand dairy cooperative not too long ago introduced their forecasted farmgate milk worth for the 2024/2025 season elevated amid sturdy GDT outcomes and tighter world milk provides. A gaggle in New Zealand, which forecasts dairy costs, elevated the forecasted milk worth for the 2024/2025 season, following GDT occasion 365. The New Zealand authorities not too long ago introduced they’ve completed negotiations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for a free commerce settlement that may take away tariffs on a portion of exports from New Zealand. Lately launched knowledge from New Zealand for August confirmed the variety of dairy cows despatched to slaughter in the course of the month declined from August 2023. The beforehand launched slaughter numbers from March to Might had been revised downwards. From the beginning of 2024 via August, cow slaughter numbers are down from the identical time in 2023.
SOUTH AMERICA: Some contacts say cooler than seasonal climate is offering enhancements in cow consolation ranges in Uruguay, however these reviews pale compared to the broader milk outlook all through many of the South American area, together with Uruguay. Rains in autumn and winter months have been changed by extended dryness. Contacts in Brazil are reporting very dry situations, together with wildfire threats, and reviews counsel crop and milk output progress are depending on near-term rainfall in the entire area’s dairy producing areas.
US NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Commercial totals decreased by 25 p.c for natural dairy adverts, whereas typical advert numbers slid by 18 p.c in comparison with final week. Costs for typical cheese in 6-8 ounce packages various this week as shredded and block cheese elevated whereas slices dipped in worth. Provides for typical ice cream in 48- 64 ounce containers doubled these of ice cream in 14-16 ounce containers. The weighted common marketed worth for the 48-64 ounce container was $4.28, which represents a 63 cent improve in comparison with final week. Milk leads the best way in marketed natural dairy commodities. Half gallon containers of natural milk nonetheless command an natural premium of $3.45 over half gallon containers of typical milk.
