Jim Wyckoff stories on world protein information
8 April 2024
15 minute learn
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export gross sales
Beef: Web gross sales of 18,700 MT for 2024 had been up 48 p.c from the earlier week and 53 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase had been primarily for South Korea (6,100 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), Japan (5,000 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), Canada (1,700 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (1,400 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT). Exports of 13,300 MT had been down 5 p.c from the earlier week and 12 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to South Korea (3,800 MT), Japan (3,300 MT), China (2,500 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT).
Pork: Web gross sales of 28,700 MT for 2024 had been down 48 p.c from the earlier week and 24 p.c from the prior 4-week common. Will increase primarily for Mexico (23,000 MT, together with decreases of 500 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT), Canada (1,200 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), Costa Rica (1,000 MT), and China (800 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), had been offset by reductions for Australia (3,900 MT) and Japan (600 MT). Exports of 34,900 MT had been up 2 p.c from the earlier week and 5 p.c from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to Mexico (11,600 MT), South Korea (5,900 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), China (3,600 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT).
US beef tariff quota stuffed as Brazil steps up exports
The US quota for low-tariff beef imports for this yr was stuffed by the tip of February, marking the quickest for that to occur since 2020. Brazil and Japan had been swift in claiming their shares as suppliers. With the quota stuffed, imports for the rest of the yr will now be subjected to a 26.4% tariff. Excessive-priced Japanese wagyu is predicted to come across difficulties within the U.S. market, even with a weakened yen. After the quota was stuffed final yr on Might 2, exports quickly declined, suggesting a possible lower in Japanese beef exports from March this yr.
Largest egg producer in US, Cal-Maine Meals Inc., culls roughly 3.6% of its flock as a result of an outbreak of avian flu
The transfer comes at one among its services in Texas. This outbreak has resulted within the destruction of almost 1.6 million laying hens and 337,000 pullets (or younger hens), resulting in the non permanent cessation of manufacturing on the affected plant. Cal-Maine stated it’s making an attempt to safe manufacturing at different vegetation to attenuate disruption. The corporate’s shares skilled a big decline, dropping by as a lot as 6.1% initially earlier than rebounding.
This incident marks essentially the most important avian flu outbreak in america since Dec. 7, when 2.6 million birds had been culled at an egg farm in Ohio as a result of virus. Cal-Maine had additionally reported an outbreak at one other facility in Kansas in December, affecting 684,000 hens.
The present outbreak raises issues as extremely pathogenic flu can also be spreading in dairy cattle herds, together with in Texas. This case may doubtlessly affect the broader meals chain. The corporate is collaborating with authorities and business teams to attenuate the chance of future outbreaks. Nevertheless, it reassures shoppers that correctly dealt with and cooked eggs are protected, and no eggs have been recalled due to this outbreak.
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller stated the state’s agriculture division would proceed to watch and supply steering to producers and shoppers, including that security measures and pasteurization make sure that dairy merchandise stay unaffected by chicken flu.
Cal-Maine stated it’s devoted to strong biosecurity packages. “There isn’t a identified danger associated to [highly pathogenic avian influenza] related to eggs which are at present out there and no eggs have been recalled,” Cal-Maine stated. It added it’s working with federal, state, and native authorities officers and sure business teams to minimize the chance of future outbreaks.
Regardless of the challenges posed by the outbreak, Cal-Maine introduced sturdy fiscal third-quarter earnings, with earnings of $3 a share on income of $703 million. Analysts anticipated earnings of $2.45 and income of $692 million. The upbeat earnings had been attributed to strong client demand, which led to report egg gross sales by quantity. Regardless of the non permanent disruption brought on by the outbreak, the worth of eggs has remained comparatively secure, with final week’s value at $2.47 per dozen, considerably decrease than the report excessive noticed in December 2022.
Senior Biden administration officers briefed congressional committees and management on chicken flu, because the illness struck an egg facility in Texas on Tuesday. Briefing had been reps from FDA, CDC, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response and USDA.
Mexico is taking ‘preventative measures’ in wake of U.S. HPAI outbreak in dairy cattle
Mexico’s agriculture ministry on Tuesday stated it’s taking preventative measures to extend surveillance and reinforce inspections of U.S. livestock imports after extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was present in dairy cattle. The Mexico-United States Fee for Prevention of Foot-and-Mouth Illness and different Animal Unique Illnesses (CPA) will go to livestock farms to take samples for lab evaluation, a press release by Mexico’s agriculture ministry stated. Officers from Mexico’s agriculture sanitation authority Senasica can even improve surveillance of cattle coming into the nation for any signal of respiratory misery.
Beef and pork exports increase corn and soybean industries in US: Examine
The Beef and pork exports have a big affect on the corn and soybean industries in america, in line with a examine performed by The Juday Group and launched by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). In 2023, beef and pork exports amounted to $18.1 billion, contributing considerably to the worth of corn and soybeans nationally and on a state stage in main corn and soybean-producing states.
In line with the examine:
- Nationally, beef and pork exports contributed an estimated whole financial affect of 14.6% per bushel to the worth of corn and 13.9% per bushel to soybeans in 2023.
- Beef and pork exports accounted for 512.7 million bushels of U.S. corn utilization, with a market worth of $3.05 billion.
- Beef and pork exports additionally contributed to the utilization of distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), totaling 3.07 million tonnes and equating to $671.62 million.
- Pork exports accounted for 96.8 million bushels of U.S. soybean utilization, valued at $1.36 billion.
These exports had a big financial affect, contributing to the general worth of corn and soybeans out there. Moreover, the standard of U.S. corn and soybeans as feed inputs was highlighted as a key differentiator for U.S. pink meat in worldwide markets, emphasizing the significance of sustainable manufacturing practices and feed processing efficiencies.
An individual in Texas was identified with chicken flu, the second human case linked to contaminated dairy cattle in current weeks. The affected person’s solely symptom was eye irritation, and they’re being handled oseltamivir, the antiviral drug bought by Roche as Tamiflu. The chance to most of the people is taken into account low, however shut contact with contaminated birds or animals will increase the chance of an infection.
The virus has unfold amongst dairy herds in Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Idaho, and New Mexico, suggesting potential cow-to-cow transmission.
There are issues amongst epidemiologists concerning the virus evolving to unfold extra simply amongst people, though there’s at present no proof of this. USDA has not recognized modifications to the virus that might make it extra transmissible to people.
Texas officers are offering steering to affected dairies on minimizing publicity and monitoring for flu-like signs amongst employees.
USDA Pig Report: Unfavourable in comparison with expectations
USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report final Thursday confirmed almost all classes above the typical pre-report estimates. USDA estimated the March 1 hog herd up 0.6% from year-ago, with the market hog stock 0.8% greater whereas the breeding herd declined 2.1%. The winter pig crop elevated 1.9%. Whereas winter farrowings declined 2.6%, litter measurement jumped 4.6% to a report 11.53 head.
Focus of the controversy in meals business is shifting from plant-based merchandise to lab-grown meat
A number of US states (together with Alabama, Arizona, Florida and Tennessee) think about laws to outlaw this protein supply. Arguments in favor of the ban cite security issues and the affect on conventional ranching, whereas opponents view such measures as protectionist and advocate for client selection.
Lab-grown meat, produced utilizing cells from dwelling animals in bioreactors, has attracted important funding from startups and conventional producers like Cargill and Tyson. Whereas some argue that it presents environmental advantages and addresses sustainability challenges, others elevate questions on its acceptance by shoppers, dietary equivalence, environmental affect, and security requirements.
Teams sue FDA over ractopamine use in cattle
A number of organizations together with the Animal Authorized Protection Fund, Heart for Organic Variety, Heart for Meals Security, and Meals Animal Issues Belief have filed a lawsuit in opposition to the U.S. Meals and Drug Administration (FDA) demanding a response to their rulemaking petitions concerning the usage of ractopamine in cattle. Ractopamine is a feed additive authorised to be used in pigs and beef cattle within the U.S. however is banned in lots of worldwide markets as a result of issues about its results on human well being and the surroundings. The plaintiffs search a substantive response to their petitions, which urge for the discount or elimination of ractopamine in farmed animals. They argue that the FDA’s failure to supply ultimate selections on these petitions violates the Administrative Process Act, which requires federal businesses to resolve on rulemaking petitions inside an affordable interval.
The teams cite proof linking ractopamine to varied well being and environmental points, together with coronary heart and respiratory issues in meat shoppers and farm employees, elevated danger of pathogen contagion, and environmental air pollution by seepage and runoff into water sources.
Regardless of earlier authorized challenges to the approval of ractopamine, which had been largely dismissed on procedural grounds, the organizations are pushing for motion from the FDA to handle what they see as important dangers related to the usage of this feed additive.
Some main U.S. pork producers, together with Hormel Meals, Tyson Recent Meats, JBS USA, and Smithfield Meals, have voluntarily stopped utilizing ractopamine in pig diets, doubtlessly to broaden export alternatives to markets the place the additive is banned.
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack assured shoppers the US milk provide is protected
Additionally, there is no such thing as a danger of a milk scarcity relative to HPAI in some dairy cattle. All U.S. dairy farms are required to solely ship milk from wholesome animals to processing for human consumption. The secretary stated affected dairy farmers have seen their cows absolutely get better from the virus after a couple of week. “It emphasizes the significance of biosecurity,” Vilsack stated. “Doing what you may to keep up and be sure that your dairy herds usually are not sharing water provides with waterfowl, for instance, or issues of that nature in order that we will scale back the chance.”
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (3/28) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.8425. The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.8438 (+0.0228). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4275 and 40# blocks at $1.4175. The weekly common for barrels is $1.4288 (-0.0492) and blocks $1.4194 (-0.0086). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1200. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1213 (+0.0008). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.4025. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.4000 (-0.0130).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Contacts within the East and West be aware butter demand for the spring holidays has been strong. However, demand within the Central area is regular, however some contacts say vacation orders had been lighter than final yr. Unsalted butter is wanted throughout the nation. Some manufactures within the East say they’re storing butter for later within the yr, whereas others counsel they’re limiting their churning and promoting the butter on the spot market. In West and Central markets, cream is obtainable for manufacturing with an anticipated push as retail prospects replenish their pipelines. The NASS Chilly Storage report revealed February 2024 butter shares had been up 19 p.c from January 2024 and up 1 p.c from February 2023. Bulk butter overages vary from 3 to 12 cents above market, throughout all areas.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Jap cheese plant managers relay regular manufacturing schedules. Retail cheese demand is famous to be seasonally regular. General market tones stay bearish as demand is mild, and cheese inventories are ample. Cheese demand within the Midwest is famous to be extra lively than current weeks. Milk availability is unfastened, and spot load costs had been completely reported under Class III. Block inventories are comfy. Within the West, present cheese market costs are engaging some consumers, however demand stays typically quiet. Contacts share milk manufacturing is reaching early spring flush ranges. Plant downtime is anticipated to exacerbate already ample milk volumes. Contacts share export demand stays restricted.
FLUID MILK: Farm stage milk manufacturing is trending regular to larger all through the nation. Contacts share they’re starting to see spring flush volumes in sure areas of the West, in addition to within the south-central U.S. Within the East, farm stage milk outputs are trending regular to larger. Condensed skim availability is unfastened, which contacts attribute to each college breaks and plant downtime. Contacts share Class II demand is predicted to uptick as hotter climate approaches and processors deal with manufacturing ice cream mixes. Cream is extra obtainable within the Northeast than in different pockets of the area. Within the Midwest, officers recognized an sickness affecting herds in Texas and Kansas as Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Officers share there is no such thing as a risk to the general public, and they don’t anticipate milk shortages because of the sickness. Processors within the higher Midwest be aware sturdy milk manufacturing and element ranges. Spot milk costs had been reported at $6-under to $0.50-under Class III. A number of contacts in California shared March milk manufacturing was according to forecasts and stronger than this time final yr. Some spot milk costs had been reported at $4-under Class III. Milk manufacturing in Oregon and Washington is regular to stronger. Elsewhere within the area, milk manufacturing is according to current week’s manufacturing. Cream multiples for all Courses are 1.10- 1.35 within the East, 0.90-1.24 within the Midwest, and 1.05-1.20 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs moved decrease on each ends of the Central and East vary. Costs for Western low/medium warmth NDM had been unchanged. Robust milk manufacturing all through the nation has led to lively NDM drying schedules. Excessive warmth NDM costs had been unchanged for the West and moved decrease on the backside finish of the Central and East vary. Dry buttermilk costs had been unchanged in all areas. Contacts share regular drying schedules and restricted home demand have saved inventories comfy. Dry entire milk costs moved decrease as a result of weak demand and regular drying exercise. Inventories stay tight, and processors are specializing in contractual achievement. Other than an unchanged backside of the Central dry whey worth vary, dry whey costs moved decrease on all fronts. Regular cheese manufacturing schedules have generated excessive volumes of liquid whey. Contacts share drying schedules are lively. The underside of the lactose worth vary moved decrease. Contacts share spot availability stays tight, however hundreds are simply discovered. Lactose drying schedules are regular to stronger. Whey protein focus 34% costs had been unchanged this week. Contacts share whey protein focus 34% demand is quieter than in current weeks, and inventories stay considerably slim. Acid casein costs moved decrease at each ends of the vary, whereas rennet casein costs slipped on the high quality.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKETS NEWS:
WESTERN EUROPEAN OVERVIEW: At the start of 2024, Western European milk manufacturing ranges for plenty of nations had been under ranges from the earlier yr. In line with CLAL knowledge made obtainable to USDA, January 2024 EU cows’ milk delivered to dairies is estimated at 11,761,000 MT, down 0.8 p.c in comparison with final yr. Amongst a few of the prime Western EU milk producers, the January 2024 milk deliveries and proportion modifications from January 2023 are Germany, 2,724,000 MT, – 1.8 p.c; France, 2,049,000 MT, – 0.3 p.c; and Netherlands, 1,176,000 MT, – 3.0 p.c. The provisional January 2024 cows’ milk delivered to dairies within the UK was 1,278,100 MT, down 0.5 p.c from January 2023. Nevertheless, some business contacts counsel present weekly milk manufacturing has been heavier than anticipated, and, in some instances, above that of the yr earlier than. In Germany, dairy sources report milk manufacturing for week 11 exceeded the earlier yr’s weekly quantity for the primary time because the begin of the yr, up 0.5 p.c from week 11 in 2023. In France, week 11 milk manufacturing was 0.7 p.c larger than in 2023. Contacts in the UK additionally counsel milk manufacturing is above expectations, however moist climate and decrease high quality feedstocks are stopping milk output from surpassing prior yr ranges.
EASTERN EUROPEAN OVERVIEW: Some Jap European nations proceed to see important will increase of milk output to begin the yr. In line with CLAL knowledge made obtainable to USDA, a few of the prime Jap EU milk producers, the January 2024 milk deliveries and proportion modifications from January 2023 are Poland, 1,122,000 MT, +3.3 p.c; Czech Republic, 274,000 MT, +1.2 p.c; and Hungary, 143,000 MT, – 0.4 p.c. In line with CLAL knowledge made obtainable to USDA, the provisional January 2024 cows’ milk manufacturing in Belarus was 710,000 MT, up 6.8 p.c from January 2023. The expansion in milk output is partially supported by the enlargement of the milking herds in some nations. Opposite to the discount of the milking herd in a lot of their western counterparts, the dairy herds have grown in Poland and the Czech Republic.
OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: Dairy Australia not too long ago launched the Manufacturing Enter Monitor for February 2024 earlier this month. This report famous rainfall throughout the summer time months was above seasonal averages in jap Australia, however drier than regular circumstances had been current in West Australia, Tasmania, and central Australia. Throughout February, rainfall declined within the nation, lowering water storage ranges. By way of the early components of the summer time, pasture development was sturdy, and a few farmers have decreased their reliance on bought feed. This has contributed to decreased demand and decrease feed costs in current months.
NEW ZEALAND: Starting Might 1, a brand new free commerce settlement will take impact between New Zealand and the European Union. Trade sources point out this deal may result in 60 p.c of imported butter and 15 p.c of imported cheese in Europe coming from New Zealand if quotas are stuffed. One key side of this new settlement is a requirement for New Zealand dairy merchandise coming into Europe to keep away from utilizing names for merchandise with European origins. Export knowledge for February 2024 was not too long ago launched for New Zealand. This knowledge confirmed a 26 p.c improve in worth for milk powder, butter, and cheese exported in February 2024 in comparison with February 2023. Recent milk and cream export values had been 12 p.c larger in February 2024.
SOUTH AMERICA: Seasonal milk output is variant within the area. Reviews relay typically wholesome, significantly for late summer time/early fall, milk output figures in each Brazil and Uruguay. Argentina’s output, although, stays underneath some notably bearish stress. Dairy farmers within the Argentine plains proceed to face excessive temperatures and, extra not too long ago, intense humidity with sturdy rains. Reviews counsel a doubtlessly regarding state of affairs if Argentine dairy operators proceed to battle with the variant, but opposed, components.
US NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: The variety of typical dairy advertisements elevated throughout the week 13 retail advert survey. Whole natural dairy advertisements additionally grew from final week. Essentially the most marketed typical commodity was cheese throughout this week’s survey, whereas essentially the most marketed natural commodity was milk. Natural ice cream advertisements noticed the biggest proportion development throughout the week 13 survey.
