Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reviews on world protein information
4 August 2024
12 minute learn
Weekly USDA US beef, Pork export gross sales
Beef: Internet gross sales of 17,700 MT for 2024 had been up 32 % from the earlier week and 35 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase had been primarily for South Korea (5,300 MT, together with decreases of 600 MT), Japan (3,500 MT, together with decreases of 1,000 MT), Mexico (2,100 MT), China (2,100 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT, together with decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 16,200 MT had been unchanged from the earlier week and up 4 % from the
prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to Japan (4,500 MT), South Korea (4,200 MT), China (2,300 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Taiwan (1,200 MT).
Pork: Internet gross sales of 31,500 MT for 2024 had been up 5 % from the earlier week, however down 10 % from the prior 4-week common. Will increase had been primarily for Mexico (12,800 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), Colombia (4,100 MT, together with decreases of 400 MT), Canada (3,700 MT, together with decreases of 800 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT, together with decreases of 300 MT), and Japan (2,600 MT, together with decreases of 200 MT). Exports of 30,100 MT had been down 8 % from the
earlier week and 5 % from the prior 4-week common. The locations had been primarily to Mexico (13,500 MT), Japan (3,900 MT), China (3,200 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), and Colombia (1,800 MT).
USDA sees no want for obligatory testing for extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle.
- Voluntary efforts: USDA Undersecretary Eric Deeble acknowledged that present voluntary measures are efficient, making obligatory testing pointless.
- Federal order: The present federal order requires testing of lactating dairy animals crossing state strains, however no “extraordinary emergency authority” is warranted.
- State measures: Colorado has carried out obligatory bulk testing as a consequence of a concentrated dairy trade in a single county. Different states have testing necessities for dairy animals at occasions like festivals.
- CDC initiatives: The CDC introduced a $10 million funding to deal with chicken flu in farm staff. Half shall be spent educating and coaching farm staff about the best way to keep away from being contaminated. The opposite half can pay for seasonal flu vaccines for an estimated 200,000 farm staff who have a tendency livestock and poultry. The CDC hopes to vaccinate all of them however acknowledges that lower than half of the overall inhabitants sometimes will get a flu shot.
- Human circumstances: There are 14 identified human infections of extremely pathogenic avian influenza that resulted from contact with contaminated dairy cattle and poultry in america, and all however one has occurred up to now 4 months — 9 are confirmed in Colorado amongst staff eradicating chickens at two poultry farms. The CDC considers the danger to the general public low and has no pending human assessments.
- Stopping mutations: Vaccinating farm staff in opposition to seasonal influenza goals to cut back the danger of latest flu strains rising.
- Milk manufacturing: HPAI has not considerably impacted US milk manufacturing on a nationwide scale.
Boar’s Head, a well known deli meat firm, is recalling extra 7 million kilos of product as a consequence of listeria outbreak
The recall is because of an outbreak of listeria, a harmful bacterium, linked to 2 deaths and dozens of diseases throughout 13 states. The recall includes numerous forms of meats, reminiscent of liverwurst, ham, and salami, produced at their Virginia plant. The merchandise have sell-by dates starting from July 29 to Oct. 17. This new recall provides to an earlier one involving over 200,000 kilos of comparable merchandise. The situation was first detected when a liverwurst pattern from Maryland examined constructive for listeria. Subsequent assessments confirmed the identical listeria pressure was inflicting diseases. Shoppers are suggested to verify their deli meat merchandise and observe recall pointers to stop potential well being dangers.
USDA extends remark interval on livestock competitors rule
USDA’s Agricultural Advertising and marketing Service (AMS) has prolonged the remark interval for its proposed rule on Honest and Aggressive Livestock and Poultry Markets by 15 days, transferring the deadline to Sept. 11. Beforehand, feedback had been due by Aug. 27. The rule goals to outline unfair practices as those who hurt market members and the market. The company will publish a Federal Register discover to announce the extension.
USDA to unveil proposed rule declaring salmonella an adulterant
USDA’s Meals Security and Inspection Service (FSIS) is about to suggest a rule declaring salmonella an adulterant in uncooked hen, hen elements, floor hen, and floor turkey merchandise if current above particular ranges. This follows a earlier rule that declared salmonella an adulterant in breaded, stuffed uncooked hen merchandise. The proposed restrict is 10 colony forming models (CFU) per gram, focusing on three salmonella serotypes of public well being significance. As soon as revealed within the Federal Register, there’ll be a 60-day remark interval. The Workplace of Administration and Finances (OMB) accomplished its assessment of the FSIS plan on July 26, paving the way in which for the announcement. It stays unsure if the rule shall be finalized earlier than the top of the Biden administration.
Two-thirds of US dairy farms vanish, but milk manufacturing rises by a 3rd
California and Wisconsin proceed to steer U.S. milk manufacturing, making up one-third of the overall output, however the dairy trade has undergone vital adjustments over the previous 20 years, based on USDA analysts. The variety of dairy herds dropped from 70,375 in 2003 to 26,290 in 2023, whereas milk manufacturing elevated from 170.3 billion kilos to 226.4 billion kilos, a 33% rise.
Texas and Idaho have grown to be among the many high 5 dairy states, every contributing 7% to U.S. manufacturing. California’s manufacturing share decreased from 21% to 18%, and Wisconsin’s share rose to 14%.
Nationwide, there are fewer dairy cows, however they produce extra milk. Massive dairy farms with over 2,000 cows now present 39% of the milk provide, with bigger farms being extra frequent within the West. These farms have change into extra specialised, focusing primarily on dairy manufacturing and relying extra on bought feeds. The Financial Analysis Service report highlighted that bigger farms are additionally extra prone to undertake superior applied sciences and administration practices.
China’s hog slaughter eases barely in first half
China slaughtered 160.35 million head of hogs within the first half of the 12 months, down 0.7% from the identical interval final 12 months. China’s sow herd stood at 40.38 million head on the finish of June, down 6.0% from final 12 months.
Three extra human circumstances of H5N1 in Colorado
The Colorado Dept. of Public Well being and Setting reported three extra chicken flu circumstances amongst farm staff in Weld County, Colorado. The employees, who had been culling birds with extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) at an egg farm, are receiving antiviral therapy. This brings the overall confirmed human circumstances of HPAI to 13 this 12 months, with circumstances in Colorado, Michigan, and Texas. The circumstances embrace 4 staff from dairy farms and 9 from poultry farms.
Examine: Avian flu spreads from birds to cows and different mammals in US
A current examine revealed in Nature gives proof of avian influenza (H5N1) spreading from birds to dairy cattle and subsequently from cattle to different mammals, together with cats and a raccoon, throughout a number of U.S. states. This marks one of many first documented situations of environment friendly and sustained mammalian-to-mammalian transmission of this extremely pathogenic virus, based on Diego Diel, affiliate professor of virology at Cornell College.
Complete genome sequencing of the virus didn’t present mutations enhancing its transmissibility in people, although the prevalence of mammal-to-mammal transmission is regarding as it might adapt additional. 13 human circumstances within the U.S. have been reported, primarily linked to cattle and poultry farms, together with a current outbreak in Colorado, suggesting the virus could have originated from dairy farms in the identical county. The examine concerned intensive genomic sequencing and epidemiological modeling, revealing cow-to-cow transmission and unfold to different mammals, probably by means of environmental contamination or direct consumption of uncooked milk from contaminated cows. The analysis was carried out by a staff from Cornell College and Texas A&M Veterinary Medical Diagnostic Laboratory.
USDA tasks the smallest rise in grocery costs for 2025 since 2018
Preliminary forecasts present a 2.0% improve in all meals costs, a 0.7% rise in grocery costs, and a 3.0% hike in restaurant costs. For 2024, USDA maintains its prediction of a 2.2% improve in all meals costs, with a 1.0% rise in grocery costs and a 4.3% improve in restaurant costs.
Particulars: Key grocery classes like fish, seafood, eggs, dairy merchandise, and contemporary fruits and greens are anticipated to see value drops in 2024 and additional decreases in 2025. If realized, these forecasts would mark the smallest rises in meals costs since 2019 for all meals and since 2018 for grocery and restaurant costs.
Backside line: USDA’s projections point out a continued moderation in meals value inflation in comparison with current years.
1481 Meats in Upham joins North Dakota State Meat Inspection Program
1481 Meats in Upham has change into the most recent North Dakota firm to function below the State Meat and Poultry Inspection Program, as confirmed by Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring. House owners Tyler and Kelani Welstad started customized exempt processing in September 2023 and formally began state-inspected operations on Might 24, 2024. Their facility, named for its location at Freeway 14 and 81st St. N., gives beef processing and sells retail jerky, sticks, and contemporary meats. State-accredited meat processing crops can promote merchandise wholesale inside North Dakota, and after three months of official state operation, they’ll apply for the Cooperative Interstate Cargo Program to ship merchandise nationwide. The NDDA meat inspection employees assisted the Welstads in assembly regulatory necessities, together with a HACCP plan and SSOPs for plant sanitation. At the moment, 19 North Dakota firms function below the state program, with seven accredited for interstate shipments, and 76 customized exempt services course of non-public recreation and livestock.
Brazil is about to declare an finish to the Newcastle illness outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul
That’s based on the Estadao newspaper, quoting Carlos Goulart, Secretary of Agricultural Protection. Goulart acknowledged that technical knowledge confirms the outbreak is over, and Brazil will notify the World Group for Animal Well being (WOAH) and share particulars with the worldwide neighborhood. Following the primary reported case since 2006, Brazil had imposed a voluntary export ban on poultry to sure nations. Regular export actions are anticipated to renew pending clearance from the affected nations. The agriculture ministry has not commented on the state of affairs.
Background of the outbreak: The outbreak was first detected on a industrial poultry farm within the municipality of Anta Gorda, Rio Grande do Sul. The illness, which impacts each home and wild birds, causes extreme respiratory issues and may result in dying. The final confirmed circumstances in Brazil occurred in 2006 in subsistence birds within the states of Amazonas, Mato Grosso, and Rio Grande do Sul.
Influence on poultry exports: The outbreak led to vital disruptions in Brazil’s poultry export sector. Brazil, the world’s largest poultry exporter, voluntarily imposed an export ban on poultry merchandise to sure nations, together with China, Argentina, and Mexico. This precautionary measure was aimed toward making certain transparency and sustaining belief with worldwide buying and selling companions.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (7/26) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $3.0900. The weekly common for Grade AA is $3.0845 (-0.0295). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.9700 and 40# blocks at $1.9300. The weekly common for barrels is $1.9600 (+0.0620) and blocks $1.9210 (+0.0580). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2325. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.2230 (+0.0435). DRY WHEY: Additional grade dry whey closed at $0.5700. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.5410 (+0.0355).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Butter makers are operating lively manufacturing schedules within the East and Central areas, however churning is seasonally gentle within the West. Cream volumes are tight or tightening all through the nation. Contacts within the East area notice spot volumes of cream are restricted. Within the Central area stakeholders say cream is extra obtainable than typical for this time of 12 months, although butter makers are buying cream volumes from the West to fulfill their manufacturing wants. In the West, salted butter masses can be found, whereas unsalted butter inventories stay tighter. Central area butter inventories are additionally obtainable. Demand for butter is regular to lighter, domestically, within the Central and West areas this week, although contacts within the West relay average worldwide curiosity. Within the East, retail demand has held regular whereas meals service gross sales are regular to lighter.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing schedules proceed to development regular to lighter all through a lot of the U.S. Contacts within the East area relay blended manufacturing schedules. Some processors are operating manufacturing schedules in keeping with current weeks, whereas others share lighter manufacturing. Contacts share retail demand stays robust. Cheesemakers within the Central area notice lively manufacturing schedules regardless of tightening spot milk availability. Spot milk costs had been reported at Class III to $1.50-over. Cheese demand is regular, and a few contacts shared elevated curiosity from clients in Mexico. Contacts within the West point out seasonally weaker cheese manufacturing. Spot milk availability is restricted, however producers have shared sufficient milk is accessible to fulfill manufacturing wants.
FLUID MILK: Nationwide, milk output is usually declining week to week as a consequence of hotter summer time temperatures and regular seasonal milk manufacturing patterns. Some producers point out that they had anticipated decrease volumes for summer time, and obtainable milk volumes are accommodating manufacturing wants. Central area cheesemakers relayed spot costs are starting from flat to $1.50-over Class. Class II and III milk demand is seasonally regular or robust, however Class I and IV processing is usually lighter as a consequence of decrease milk manufacturing and demand. Shifting milk for all lessons remains to be difficult as cleanup from Hurricane Beryl continues throughout the Northeast. Stakeholders say condensed skim milk is transferring steadily, however volumes have change into much less obtainable as milk manufacturing has declined. Processors are discovering a tighter marketplace for condensed skim milk in all areas. Cream availability is tighter all through the nation, particularly within the East and Midwest. Some a great deal of spot cream have made their method throughout the nation from the West to butter makers within the Midwest. In some circumstances, when spot a great deal of cream change into obtainable within the East, they’re being picked up across the 1.50 a number of mark. Cream multiples vary from 1.30 – 1.50 within the East, 1.24 – 1.38 within the Midwest, and 1.16 – 1.39 within the West.
DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) costs had been unchanged within the West, and Central and East areas this week. Manufacturing is seasonally lighter as condensed skim availability has tightened. Excessive warmth NDM costs held regular within the Central and East areas, however the value vary expanded within the West. Dry buttermilk costs had been unchanged within the Central and East areas, whereas the highest of the West dry buttermilk value vary dipped decrease. Dry buttermilk manufacturing is trending lighter in all areas. Spot inventories can be found, however not considerable. Dry entire milk costs had been unchanged. Dry whey costs had been unchanged within the West however moved greater within the Central and East areas. Processors proceed to maneuver whey solids into excessive proportion whey protein concentrates and whey protein isolate manufacturing streams. The highest of the whey protein focus 34% value vary inched greater this week. Manufacturing exercise stays gentle, and inventories are general tight. Lactose costs had been unchanged this week. Inventories differ between producers. Contacts shared elevated demand from consumers in Mexico. Acid and rennet casein costs had been unchanged this week.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: America Secretary of Agriculture just lately attended a group’s natural discipline day occasion and spoke in regards to the USDA’s efforts in increasing entry for producers to climate-smart agriculture. The Agriculture Secretary additionally highlighted the USDA’s initiatives to develop the marketplace for natural merchandise by means of aiding producers in transitioning to natural manufacturing. An organization which gives natural grass-fed dairy merchandise just lately introduced they’re increasing by including farms situated all through Central Pennsylvania. A cooperative within the UK has established a milk pay value of fifty kilos per liter for the 2025/2026 season in an effort to recruit natural producers within the nation and to recruit farmers thinking about transitioning to natural manufacturing. The week 30 retail advert survey fewer natural dairy advertisements in comparison with the prior week. The most marketed natural dairy commodity remained yogurt, whereas milk remained the second most marketed natural dairy commodity.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Typical dairy advertisements elevated 8 %, whereas natural dairy advertisements decreased by 15 % this week. Typical ice cream in 48-64 ounce containers was essentially the most marketed dairy commodity. The weighted common marketed costs of 48-64 ounce containers and 14-16 ounce containers of typical ice cream had been $3.61 and $3.85, respectively. Shredded cheese in 6-8 ounce packages was essentially the most marketed typical cheese merchandise, with a weighted common marketed value of $2.50, down from $2.81 the week prior. Natural milk in gallon containers had a weighted common marketed value of $6.98. The natural premium for a gallon container of milk was $3.55. Typical gallon and half gallon containers of milk had weighted common marketed costs of $3.43 and $2.40, respectively.
